بررسی تأثیر مغلطه‌های مالی بر رابطه بین برون‌گرایی مدیرعامل و پیش‌بینی تحلیل‌گران مالی
محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه تحلیل بازار سرمایه
فرزانه قدیمی
1
,
سعید علی احمدی
2
*
,
محمد علیمرادی
3
1 - گروه حسابداری، واحد اصفهان (خوراسگان)، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اصفهان، ایران.
2 - گروه حسابداری، واحد اصفهان (خوراسگان)،دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اصفهان، ایران.
3 - گروه حسابداری، واحد اصفهان (خوراسگان)، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اصفهان، ایران.
کلید واژه: مغلطه‌های مالی, برون‌گرایی مدیرعامل , پیش‌بینی تحلیل‌گران مالی,
چکیده مقاله :
یکی از اطلاعات کیفی و غیرمالی که می‌تواند بر پیش‌بینی تحلیل‌گران مالی تأثیر داشته‌باشد، ویژگی شخصیتی برون‌گرایی مدیرعامل است. همچنین، نحوه استدلال‌های اشتباه مطرح شده توسط تحلیل‌گران مالی یا مغلطه‌های مالی نیز می‌تواند بر پیش‌بینی تحلیل‌گران مالی تأثیر داشته‌باشد. از این رو هدف پژوهش حاضر بررسی تأثیر مغلطه‌های مالی بر رابطه بین برون‌گرایی مدیرعامل و پیش‌بینی تحلیل‌گران مالی است. بر این اساس می‌توان پژوهش حاضر را از نظر هدف، کاربردی و از دیدگاه گردآوری داده‌ها، پیمایشی در نظر گرفت. در این پژوهش برای جمع آوری داده‌ها از پرسشنامه مبتنی بر سناریو استفاده شده‌است و برای آزمون فرضیه‌های پژوهش از تحلیل آنوا یک‌طرفه استفاده شده‌است. جامعه آماری پژوهش تحلیل‌گران مالی بوده و بر اساس روش نمونه گیری توان آزمون تعداد 200 تحلیلگر مالی، در بازه زمانی سال 1402 انتخاب گردید. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که متغیر برون‌گرایی مدیرعامل بر پیش‌بینی تحلیل‌گران مالی تأثیر ندارد. همچنین، نتایج پژوهش اشاره دارد که متغیر مغلطه‌های مالی و تعامل آن با برون‌گرایی مدیرعامل نیز بر پیش‌بینی تحلیل‌گران مالی تأثیر ندارد.
One of the qualitative and non-financial information that can affect the forecast of financial analysts is the CEO's extroversion personality trait. Also, the way of wrong arguments raised by financial analysts or financial fallacies can also affect the forecast of financial analysts. Therefore, the aim of the present study is to investigate the effect of financial fallacies on the relationship between CEO extroversion and financial analysts' forecasts. Based on this, the current research can be considered practical in terms of purpose and survey in terms of data collection. In this research, a scenario-based questionnaire was used to collect data, and one-way ANOVA was used to test the research hypotheses. The statistical population of the research is financial analysts and based on the power sampling method, the number of 200 financial analysts was selected in the period of 2023. The results of the research showed that the CEO's extroversion variable does not affect the forecast of financial analysts. Also, the results of the research indicate that the variable of financial fallacies and its interaction with the CEO's extroversion does not affect the forecast of financial analysts.
جهانی، امیرمسعود. (1402). تحلیل و بررسی سوگیری‌های رفتاری مؤثر در تصمیمات سرمایه‌گذاران و تعیین اولویت مقوله‌های شناسایی شده از دیدگاه خبرگان با استفاده از تکنیک دیمتل و روش تحلیل سلسله‌مراتبی (AHP). دانش سرمایه‌گذاری، 12(47)، 231-248.
خندان، علی‌اصغر. (1380). مغالطات. قم: انتشارات دفتر تبلیغات اسلامی حوزه علمیه قم (مؤسسه بوستان کتاب قم).
مریمی یعقوبیان، مرتضی؛ نجفی مقدم، علی؛ حق شناس کاشانی، فریده؛ نصرالهی، بیتا. (1402)، طراحی مدل پارادایم رفتار سرمایه‌گذاران در بازار سرمایه با تأکید بر شاخص‌های بومی، پیشرفت‌های مالی و سرمایه‌گذاری، 3(4)، 1-24.
Adebambo, B., Bowen, R. M., Malhotra, S., & Zhu, P. (2024). CEO extraversion and the cost of equity capital. Journal of Financial Research. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfir.12389
Ahmad, M. (2024). The role of cognitive heuristic-driven biases in investment management activities and market efficiency: a research synthesis. International Journal of Emerging Markets, Vol. 19 No. 2, pp. 273-321. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJOEM-07-2020-0749
Amir, E., Lev, B., & Sougiannis, T. (2003). Do financial analysts get intangibles?. European Accounting Review, 12(4), 635-659. https://doi.org/10.1080/0963818032000141879
Andrei, A. G., Benischke, M. H., & Martin, G. P. (2024). Behavioral agency and the efficacy of analysts as external monitors: Examining the moderating role of CEO personality. Strategic Management Journal, 45(1), 113-143. https://doi.org/10.1002/smj.3548
Ashton, M. C., Lee, K., & Paunonen, S. V. (2002). What is the central feature of extraversion? Social attention versus reward sensitivity. Journal of personality and social psychology, 83(1), 245-252. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.83.1.245
Badola, S., Sahu, A. K., & Adlakha, A. (2024). A systematic review on behavioral biases affecting individual investment decisions. Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, 16(3), 448-476. https://doi.org/10.1108/QRFM-05-2022-0095
Barrick, M. R., & Mount, M. K. (1991). The big five personality dimensions and job performance: a meta‐analysis. Personnel psychology, 44(1), 1-26. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1744-6570.1991.tb00688.x
Beaver, W. H. (1998). Financial reporting: an accounting revolution.
Beccalli, E., Miller, P., & O'leary, T. (2015). How analysts process information: Technical and financial disclosures in the microprocessor industry. European Accounting Review, 24(3), 519-549. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638180.2014.969526
Becker, J., Medjedovic, J., & Merkle, C. (2019). The effect of CEO extraversion on analyst forecasts: Stereotypes and similarity bias. Financial Review, 54(1), 133-164. https://doi.org/10.1111/fire.12173
Bednar, M. K., Boivie, S., & Prince, N. R. (2013). Burr under the saddle: How media coverage influences strategic change. Organization Science, 24(3), 910-925. https://doi.org/10.1287/orsc.1120.0770
Bennett, B. (2021). Logically fallacious: the ultimate collection of over 300 logical fallacies (Academic Edition). eBookIt. com.
Bleaney, M., Bougheas, S., & Li, Z. (2017). Do psychological fallacies influence trading in financial markets? Evidence from the foreign exchange market. Journal of Behavioral Finance, 18(3), 344-357. https://doi.org/10.1080/15427560.2017.1331234
Blickle, G., & Hogan, R. (2020). Socioanalytic perspective. In Encyclopedia of personality and individual differences (pp. 5128-5132). Cham: Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-24612-3_1186
Borgholthaus, C. J., & Harms, P. D. (2024). Scaling the Ivory Tower: The Organizational Consequences of CEO Personality (pp. 13–30). https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780192897114.013.5
Bradshaw, M. T. (2009). Analyst information processing, financial regulation, and academic research. The Accounting Review, 84(4), 1073-1083 .https://doi.org/10.2308/accr.2009.84.4.1073
Bradshaw, M. T. (2011). Analysts’ forecasts: what do we know after decades of work?. Available at SSRN 1880339. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1880339
Brown, L. D., Call, A. C., Clement, M. B., & Sharp, N. Y. (2015). Inside the “black box” of sell‐side financial analysts. Journal of Accounting Research, 53(1), 1-47. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-679X.12067
Brauer, M., & Wiersema, M. (2018). Analyzing analyst research: A review of past coverage and recommendations for future research. Journal of Management, 44(1), 218-248. https://doi.org/10.1177/0149206317734900
Busenbark, J. R., Krause, R., Boivie, S., & Graffin, S. D. (2016). Toward a configurational perspective on the CEO: A review and synthesis of the management literature. Journal of Management, 42(1), 234-268. https://doi.org/10.1177/0149206315618448
Camerer, C. F., & Loewenstein, G. (2004). Behavioral economics: Past, present, future. In C. F. Camerer, G. Loewenstein, & M. Rabin (Eds.), Advances in behavioral economics (pp. 3–51). New York: Princeton University Press.
Chatterjee, A., & Hambrick, D. C. (2007). It's all about me: Narcissistic chief executive officers and their effects on company strategy and performance. Administrative science quarterly, 52(3), 351-386. https://doi.org/10.2189/asqu.52.3.351
Chiaburu, D. S., Oh, I. S., Berry, C. M., Li, N., & Gardner, R. G. (2011). The five-factor model of personality traits and organizational citizenship behaviors: a meta-analysis. Journal of applied psychology, 96(6), 1140–1166. DOI: 10.1037/a0024004
Cohen, L., Manion, L., Morrison, K. (2000). Research methods in education. 5th Edition, Routledge Falmer, London. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203224342
Colbert, A. E., Barrick, M. R., & Bradley, B. H. (2014). Personality and leadership composition in top management teams: Implications for organizational effectiveness. Personnel psychology, 67(2), 351-387. https://doi.org/10.1111/peps.12036
Copi, I. M., Cohen, C., & McMahon, K. (2016). Introduction to logic. Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315510897
Covrig, V., & Low, B. S. (2005). The relevance of analysts’ earnings forecasts in Japan. Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 32(7‐8), 1437-1463. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0306-686X.2005.00635.x
Do, M. H., & Minbashian, A. (2014). A meta-analytic examination of the effects of the agentic and affiliative aspects of extraversion on leadership outcomes. The Leadership Quarterly, 25(5), 1040-1053. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.leaqua.2014.04.004
Dzieliński, M., Wagner, A. F., & Zeckhauser, R. J. (2021). CEO clarity. RWP17-017, Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper, (17-13). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2965108 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2965108
Gentry, R. J., & Shen, W. (2013). The impacts of performance relative to analyst forecasts and analyst coverage on firm R&D intensity. Strategic Management Journal, 34(1), 121-130. https://doi.org/10.1002/smj.1997
Gow, I. D., Kaplan, S. N., Larcker, D. F., & Zakolyukina, A. A. (2016). CEO personality and firm policies (No. w22435). National Bureau of Economic Research. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2805635 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2805635
Graham, J. R., Harvey, C. R., & Puri, M. (2013). Managerial attitudes and corporate actions. Journal of financial economics, 109(1), 103-121. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2013.01.010
Grant, A. M., Gino, F., & Hofmann, D. A. (2011). Reversing the extraverted leadership advantage: The role of employee proactivity. Academy of management journal, 54(3), 528-550. https://doi.org/10.5465/amj.2011.61968043
Green, T. C., Jame, R., & Lock, B. (2019). Executive extraversion: Career and firm outcomes. The Accounting Review, 94(3), 177-204. https://doi.org/10.2308/accr-52208
Gupta, A., Nadkarni, S., & Mariam, M. (2019). Dispositional sources of managerial discretion: CEO ideology, CEO personality, and firm strategies. Administrative Science Quarterly, 64(4), 855-893. https://doi.org/10.1177/0001839218793128
Haita-Falah, C. (2017). Sunk-cost fallacy and cognitive ability in individual decision-making. Journal of Economic Psychology, 58, 44-59. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2016.12.001
Harrison, J. S., Thurgood, G. R., Boivie, S., & Pfarrer, M. D. (2020). Perception is reality: How CEOs’ observed personality influences market perceptions of firm risk and shareholder returns. Academy of Management Journal, 63(4), 1166-1195. https://doi.org/10.5465/amj.2018.0626
Hon-Snir, S., Kudryavtsev, A., & Cohen, G. (2012). Stock market investors: Who is more rational, and who relies on intuition. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 4(5), 56-72. DOI:10.5539/ijef.v4n5p56
Judge, T. A., Bono, J. E., Ilies, R., & Gerhardt, M. W. (2002). Personality and leadership: a qualitative and quantitative review. Journal of applied psychology, 87(4), 765. https://doi.org/10.1037/0021-9010.87.4.765
Judge, T. A., & Cable, D. M. (1997). Applicant personality, organizational culture, and organization attraction. Personnel psychology, 50(2), 359-394. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1744-6570.1997.tb00912.x
Kaplan, S. N., Klebanov, M. M., & Sorensen, M. (2012). Which CEO characteristics and abilities matter?. The journal of finance, 67(3), 973-1007. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2012.01739.x
Kaustia, M., Alho, E., & Puttonen, V. (2008). How much does expertise reduce behavioral biases? The case of anchoring effects in stock return estimates. Financial Management, 37(3), 391-412. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1755-053X.2008.00018.x
Ketokivi, M. (2019). Avoiding bias and fallacy in survey research: A behavioral multilevel approach. Journal of Operations Management, 65(4), 380-402. https://doi.org/10.1002/joom.1011
Kiyabo, K., & Isaga, N. (2020). Entrepreneurial orientation, competitive advantage, and SMEs’ performance: application of firm growth and personal wealth measures. Journal of Innovation and Entrepreneurship, 9(1), 12. DOI:10.1186/s13731-020-00123-7
Lartey, T., Kesse, K., & Danso, A. (2020). CEO extraversion and capital structure decisions: the role of firm dynamics, product market competition, and financial crisis. Journal of Financial Research, 43(4), 847-893. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfir.12227
Liao, S., Nguyen, N. H., & Truong, C. (2024). Does CEO extraversion pay off when in need? Evidence from the global financial crisis. The British Accounting Review, 56(4), 101234. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bar.2023.101234
Love, E. G., Lim, J., & Bednar, M. K. (2017). The face of the firm: The influence of CEOs on corporate reputation. Academy of Management Journal, 60(4), 1462–1481. https://doi.org/10.5465/amj.2014.0862
Mahmoudian, F., Nazari, J. A., Gordon, I. M., & Hrazdil, K. (2021). CEO personality and language use in CSR reporting. Business Ethics, the Environment & Responsibility, 30(3), 338-359. https://doi.org/10.1111/beer.12347
Malhotra, S., Reus, T. H., Zhu, P., & Roelofsen, E. M. (2018). The acquisitive nature of extraverted CEOs. Administrative Science Quarterly, 63(2), 370-408. https://doi.org/10.1177/0001839217712240
Marquez-Illescas, G., & Zhou, L. (2023). CEO Narcissism and Properties of Analysts’ Forecasts. Accounting Horizons, 37(3), 221-241. https://doi.org/10.2308/HORIZONS-2021-010
Mola, S., Rau, P. R., & Khorana, A. (2013). Is there life after the complete loss of analyst coverage?. The Accounting Review, 88(2), 667-705. https://doi.org/10.2308/accr-50330
Mukherjee, Kaushik, "CEO personality & stakeholder engagement" (2022). Electronic Theses and Dissertations. 2385.
Nadkarni, S., & Herrmann, P. O. L. (2010). CEO personality, strategic flexibility, and firm performance: The case of the Indian business process outsourcing industry. Academy of Management Journal, 53(5), 1050-1073. https://doi.org/10.5465/amj.2010.54533196
Ogunlusi, O. E., & Obademi, O. (2021). The Impact of behavioural finance on investment decision-making: A study of selected investment banks in Nigeria. Global Business Review, 22(6), 1345-1361. https://doi.org/10.1177/0972150919851388
Ossareh, A., Pourjafar, M. S., & Kopczewski, T. (2021). Cognitive biases on the iran stock exchange: Unsupervised learning approach to examining feature bundles in investors’ portfolios. Applied Sciences, 11(22), 10916. https://doi.org/10.3390/app112210916
Parkash, P., & Parkash, R. (2024). Imapct of Behavioural Biasness on Investor Decision Making Process. International Journal for Multidisciplinary Research, 6(1). DOI:10.5281/zenodo.10715718
Pelster, M. (2020). The gambler’s and hot-hand fallacies: Empirical evidence from trading data. Economics Letters, 187, 108887. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2019.108887
Personne, K., & Pääjärvi, S. (2013). Financial Analysts' Forecast Precision: Swedish Evidence.
Pollock, T. G., & Rindova, V. P. (2003). Media legitimation effects in the market for initial public offerings. Academy of Management journal, 46(5), 631-642. https://doi.org/10.5465/30040654
Rakesh, H. M. (2013). Gambler’s fallacy and behavioral finance in the financial markets: a case study of bombay stock exchange. International Journal of Business and Management Invention, 2(12), 1-7.
Rao, K., & Hastie, R. (2023). Predicting Outcomes in a Sequence of Binary Events: Belief Updating and Gambler's Fallacy Reasoning. Cognitive Science, 47(1), e13211. https://doi.org/10.1111/cogs.13211
Roth, S., Robbert, T., & Straus, L. (2015). On the sunk-cost effect in economic decision-making: a meta-analytic review. Business research, 8, 99-138. doi:10.1007/s40685-014-0014-8
Şahin, E. Y. (2016). Logical fallacies. Current topics in social sciences, 116-127.
Sattar, M. A., Toseef, M., & Sattar, M. F. (2020). Behavioral finance biases in investment decision making. International Journal of Accounting, Finance and Risk Management, 5(2), 69. DOI:10.11648/j.ijafrm.20200502.11
Schipper, K. (1991). Analysts' forecasts. Accounting horizons, 5(4), 105-121.
Smedslund, J. (1990). A critique of Tversky and Kahneman's distinction between fallacy and misunderstanding. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology, 31(2), 110-120. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9450.1990.tb00822.x
Vaid, A. J., & Chaudhary, R. (2022). Review paper on impact of behavioral biases in financial decision-making. World Journal of Advanced Research and Reviews, 16(2), 989-997. https://doi.org/10.30574/wjarr.2022.16.2.1236
Vanstraelen, A., Zarzeski, M. T., & Robb, S. W. (2003). Corporate nonfinancial disclosure practices and financial analyst forecast ability across three European countries. Journal of International Financial Management & Accounting, 14(3), 249-278. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-646X.00098
Vergne, J. P., Wernicke, G., & Brenner, S. (2018). Signal incongruence and its consequences: A study of media disapproval and CEO overcompensation. Organization Science, 29(5), 796-817. https://doi.org/10.1287/orsc.2018.1209
Wang, J., Zhang, B., Liang, S., & Li, J. (2022). Sunk cost effects hinge on the neural recalibration of reference points in mental accounting. Progress in Neurobiology, 208, 102178. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pneurobio.2021.102178
Watson, D., & Clark, L. A. (1997). Extraversion and its positive emotional core. In Handbook of personality psychology (pp. 767-793). Academic Press. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-012134645-4/50030-5
Westphal, J. D., & Clement, M. B. (2008). Sociopolitical dynamics in relations between top managers and security analysts: Favor rendering, reciprocity, and analyst stock recommendations. Academy of Management Journal, 51(5), 873-897. https://doi.org/10.5465/amj.2008.34789647
Westphal, J. D., & Deephouse, D. L. (2011). Avoiding bad press: Interpersonal influence in relations between CEOs and journalists and the consequences for press reporting about firms and their leadership. Organization Science, 22(4), 1061-1086. https://doi.org/10.1287/orsc.1100.0563
Wiersema, M. F., & Zhang, Y. (2011). CEO dismissal: The role of investment analysts. Strategic Management Journal, 32(11), 1161-1182. https://doi.org/10.1002/smj.932
Wong, M. F., & Zhang, X. F. (2014). CEO optimism and analyst forecast bias. Journal of Accounting, Auditing & Finance, 29(3), 367-392. https://doi.org/10.1177/0148558X14536185
Xiao, W. (2022). Understanding probabilistic expectations–a behavioral approach. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 139, 104416. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2022.104416