The Relationship between OPEC Basket Oil Prices and the Index of Selected Industries in the Tehran Stock Exchange during the COVID-19 Pandemic
Mohammad Gholami Baladezaei
1
(
Department of Mathematics, Damghan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Damghan, Iran
)
Elahe Sarfi
2
(
Department of Mathematics, Damghan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Damghan, Iran
)
Hossein Mohammadpour-Kargar
3
(
Department of Biology, Damghan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Damghan, Iran
)
Keywords: Industrial index, Risk, Tehran Stock Exchange, OPEC,
Abstract :
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected financial market indices by creating a crisis, so that with a possible change in the price of the OPEC oil basket, it can ultimately affect related indices in oil exporting and importing countries. Therefore, the impact of OPEC oil price changes on the indices of selected related groups on the Tehran Stock Exchange, which are affected by oil prices, was investigated from 2017 to 2022. In each consecutive five-month period, starting from the first month under review, a linear relationship between four dependent variables, including the index of groups of petroleum products, chemical products, transportation, and coal, along with the independent variable, the average monthly price of the OPEC oil basket, was obtained. It was found that by examining the average impact of the OPEC oil basket price on each industry index, it is possible to gain an attitude regarding the effectiveness of oil-related industry groups. The results of the research indicate that the indicators of the transportation industry and chemical products changed in sign compared to the price of the OPEC oil basket during the outbreak of COVID-19, and this issue can be attributed to the impact of the outbreak of COVID-19 on the Tehran Stock Exchange market. Also, in other investigated industries, stable changes were not observed continuously before and after the outbreak of COVID-19.
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