اثرات اقتصادی و زیست محیطی سیاست‏های حمایتی دولت بر محصولات زراعی دشت رامجرد استان فارس

محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی

سمانه رحمانی ¹ , فاطمه فتحی ^{2 *} , زهرا زهرا کوهی کراده ³ , زهرا مرادنژاد دیل ⁴

1 - بخش اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز
2 - اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران
3 - بخش اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز
4 - بخش اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز

تاریخ دریافت : 1403/08/20 تاریخ پذیرش : 1404/05/03 تاریخ انتشار : 1404/05/03

کلید واژه: سیاست حمایت دولت, نرخ ارز, الگوی بهینه کشت, مصرف آب, برنامه ریزی ریاضی مثبت,

چکیده مقاله :

 

 تحقیق حاضر اثرات افزایش قیمت خرید تضمینی را تا سطح قیمت جهانی در قالب دو سناریو نرخ ارز بازار آزاد و ترجیحی بررسی می‌کند. همچنین اثرات حذف یارانه کودهای شیمیایی بر الگوی کشت، درآمد کشاورزان و مصرف نهاده‌ها با هدف تحلیل آثار درآمدی و زیست‌محیطی در دشت رامجرد  بررسی شد. در این مطالعه از مدل برنامه‌ريزي رياضي مثبت (PMP) برای بررسی سه سناریو دکر شده، استفاده شد. داده ها بر اساس اطلاعات آماری سال زراعی 1400-1401 از طریق پرسشنامه و آمارنامه جهاد کشاورزی استان فارس بدست آمد: نتایج نشان دادند در سناریو اول سطح زیر کشت محصولات آب‌اندوز بویژه گندم افزایش و در مقابل سطح زیر کشت محصولات آب‌بر همچون برنج و گوجه‌فرنگی کاهش می‌یابد. در سناریوی دوم، سطح زیر کشت محصولات آب‌اندوز مانند کلزا و جو کاهش می‌یابد. در سناریوی سوم سطح زیر کشت گندم کاهش یافته و این سناریو با 2/1% بیش‌ترین کاهش مصرف آب را به همراه داشت. میانگین درآمد کشاورزان در دو سناریو اول افزایش می‌یابد؛ اما در سناریو سوم کاهش قابل توجهی در درآمد کشاورزان مشاهده می‌شود. مصرف انواع کود شیمیایی نیز تحت دو سناریوی اول افزایش می‌یابد، اما در سناریوی سوم کاهشی در مصرف کود نیتراته مشاهده نمی‌شود. افزایش قیمت محصولات ممکن است منجر به تغییرات در الگوهای کشت شود که بر مصرف آب و درآمد کشاورزان تأثیر می‌گذارد. همچنین حذف یارانه‌‌ی کودهای شیمیایی به نظر می‌رسد تأثیر منفی بر درآمد کشاورزان داشته، اما منجر به کاهش مصرف آب و سطح زیر کشت محصولات آب‌برمی‌گردد. 

 

 

 

چکیده انگلیسی:

 

Governments often implement policies to support agricultural production, primarily to ensure food security and strengthen farmers' livelihoods. This study analyzes the effects of aligning guaranteed crop purchase prices with global levels under two scenarios: free market and preferential exchange rates. It also evaluates the impact of removing chemical fertilizer subsidies on crop patterns, farmers' income, and input use in the Ramjerd plain of Fars province. Materials and Methods: In this study, a Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) model was used to analyze three scenarios. Data were collected through questionnaires and statistical reports from the Agricultural Jihad Organization of Fars Province for the agricultural year 1400-1401. Findings: The results indicated that in the first scenario, the area under cultivation for water-saving crops, particularly wheat, increased, while the area for water-intensive crops like rice and tomatoes decreased. In the second scenario, the area for water-saving crops like rapeseed and barley declined. The third scenario saw a reduction in wheat cultivation with the highest water consumption reduction of 1.2%. Farmers' income increased in the first two scenarios but dropped significantly in the third. Chemical fertilizer use rose in the first two scenarios, with no decrease in nitrate fertilizer use in the third. Conclusion: Raising crop prices can alter cropping patterns, impacting water use and farmers' income. Removing chemical fertilizer subsidies may reduce water use but negatively affect farmers' income. This study helps policymakers understand the economic and environmental impacts of agricultural policies.

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