بررسی همگرایی بازار کشاورزی در کشورهای D8و G7: رویکرد مدل جاذبه
محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی
ابوالفضل شاه‌آبادی
1
(دانشیار دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم اجتماعی؛ دانشگاه بوعلی سینا-همدان.)
یونس سلمانی
2
(دانشجوی دکتری علوم اقتصادی؛ دانشگاه تربیت مدرس-تهران.)
سید آرش ولی‌نیا
3
(پژوهشگر بانک کشاورزی.)
کلید واژه: نرخ ارز, شاخص لیندر, کشورهای اسلامی و کشورهای توسعه یافته,
چکیده مقاله :
این مطالعه به بررسی و مقایسه همگرایی بازار محصولات کشاورزی در D8 و G7 طی دوره زمانی 1995-2012 با استفاده از مدل جاذبه پرداخته است. براساس نتایج برآورد، مدل جاذبه به ترتیب حدود 79 و 96 درصد از ترتیبات تجاری بخش کشاورزی بین کشورهای D8 و کشورهایG7 را توضیح می‌دهد. همچنین، نتایج مطالعه نشان دادند که ضریب برآوردی متغیر ارزش افزوده بخش کشاورزی کشورهای i و j برای گروه D8 و G7 مثبت است. ضریب برآوردی متغیر شاخص لیندر نیز برای کشورهای گروهD8 بی معنی، اما برای کشورهایG7 معنیدار و مثبت بدست آمده است. ضریب برآوردی متغیر جمعیت کشور i برای D8 معنیدار و برابر 25/3- و برای کشورهایG7برابر 69/1 بدست آمد که در سطح قابل قبولی معنیدار است. ضریب برآوردی جمعیت کشور i برای کشورهای گروه D8 و G7 به ترتیب برابر 69/0 و 41/0 می‌باشد. گفتنی است، ضریب برآوردی متغیر نرخ ارز کشور i برای گروه G7 و D8 مثبت و معنیدار است در حالی که ضریب برآوردی متغیر نرخ ارز کشور j برای هر دو گروه از کشورهای مورد بررسی منفی است.
Several problems in different stages of pistachios marketing such as the pistachios transportation mode and its time have been effective on pistachios final price and reducing the quality of the final product in Iran. Since the improvement of transportation infrastructure reduces the cost and time, in this study, based on 2010 dada, using spatial equilibrium model with goal of maximizing net social payoff, has been investigated the effect of reducing transportation cost as index of improvement transportation infrastructure on pistachios producers and consumers in Iran. The results showed that improving transportation infrastructure will be reduced the production and export of pistachios and will increase domestic consumption. Also, based on these results, reducing the transportation cost will causes different effects on the supplier and consumers welfare in different situations. But in general, producers, welfare reduced about 272 million Rials and consumer and total welfare increased by about 2754 and 2482 million Rials respectively. The implementation of this scenario would improve the competitive position pistachios producers in Khorasan-Razavi and Yazd compare to other regions.
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