بررسی تاثیر کاهش قیمت جهانی کالاهای کشاورزی بر تراز بازرگانی

محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی

حسین صادقی ¹ (عضو هیئت علمی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس.)
بهرام سحابی ² (عضو هیئت علمی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس.)
مجید صباغ کرمانی ³ (عضو هیئت علمی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس.)
علی قنبری ⁴ (عضو هیئت علمی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس.)
محمد حسن زاده ⁵ (دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد دانشگاه تربیت مدرس.)

تاریخ دریافت : 1394/09/28 تاریخ پذیرش : 1394/09/28 تاریخ انتشار : 1389/10/01

کلید واژه: قیمتهای جهانی, کالاهای کشاورزی, تراز بازرگانی,

چکیده مقاله :

بحران مالی سال 2008 ، اقتصاد بسیاری از کشورها را تحت تاثیر قرار داد و باعث کاهش قابل توجه رشد اقتصاد جهانی شد. با گذشت زمان بخشهای گوناگون اقتصاد نیز تحت تاثیر قرار گرفت و با کاهش سطح تقاضا، قیمت جهانی کالاها کاهش یافت. این مقاله با استفاده از مدل تعادل عمومی قابل محاسبه اثر کاهش قیمت جهانی کالاهای کشاورزی را بر تراز بازرگانی بخش کشاورزی ایران مورد بررسی قرار می دهد. نتایج بررسی نشان می دهد که کاهش قیمت جهانی کالاهای کشاورزی اثر منفی بر تراز بازرگانی تمامی محصولات کشاورزی بجز گندم، برخی نباتات صنعتی و محصولات جنگلی دارد. در مجموع تراز بازرگانی بخش کشاورزی ایران در نتیجهی کاهش قیمت ها آسیب دید که مهمترین علت آن کاهش صادرات محصولات باغی بوده است.  

چکیده انگلیسی:

The global financial crisis, started in 2008, has affected many economies and it has also caused a significant drop in global growth during past years. As time went on, various sectors has been affected due to decrease in demand and prices. Using CGE model, this paper investigates the effects of global agricultural price decrease on agricultural trade balance of Iran. The results showed that decrease in prices of agricultural goods has had a negative effect on trade balance of all agricultural products except three products, namely, wheat, industrial crops and wood products. In brief, the decline of global agricultural prices deteriorated the agricultural sector trade balance mainly due drop in export of horticultural products.  

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