شناسایی مخاطرات اخلاقی و انتخاب نامناسب در بیمه گندم آبی استان خراسان رضوی

محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی

ارش دوراندیش ¹ , سارا کارگر ² , محمد قربانی ³

1 - دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
2 - دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران
3 - استاد گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

تاریخ دریافت : 1399/03/13 تاریخ پذیرش : 1402/03/27 تاریخ انتشار : 1402/02/01

کلید واژه: تابع تولید, انتخاب نامناسب, بیمه کشاورزی, تابع تقاضا, مخاطرات اخلاقی,

چکیده مقاله :

ریسک‌های اجتماعی پدیده خاص دیگری از ریسک‌های موجود در حوزه کشاورزی هستند. در تحقیق حاضر به منظور شناسایی مخاطرات اخلاقی و انتخاب نامناسب در بیمه گندم آبی در استان خراسان رضوی، از مدل سیستم معادلات همزمان استفاده گردید. نمونه با استفاده از نمونه‌گیری تناسبی 143 گندمکار بیمه شده و بیمه نشده در سال زراعی 1398-1397 در با اقلیم‌های سرد، معتدل سرد و معتدل گرم جمع‌آوری گردید. نتایج تحقیق بیانگر آن می‌باشد که بهره‌برداران بیمه شده در نواحی معتدل گرم و معتدل سرد، مصرف نهاده‌ها برای تولید در واحد سطح گندم را کاهش نداده‌اند که این مساله می‌تواند بیانگر عدم وجود مخاطره اخلاقی در این نواحی باشد. در مقابل نتایج بدست آمده از اقلیم سرد نشان می‌دهد که بهره برداران بیمه شده در این ناحیه، از مصرف نهاده‌های تولید کاسته‌اند که وجود مخاطره اخلاقی در این ناحیه را نشان می‌دهد. همچنین نتایج آزمون فرضیه بازده ثابت نسبت به مقیاس در مقابل فرضیه بازده افزایشی یا کاهشی نسبت به مقیاس برای نهاده‌های متغیر، عدم وجود انتخاب نامناسب را نشان می‌دهد.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Social risks are another specific phenomenon in the agricultural sector. . In the present study, in order to identify ethical risks and adverse selection in Khorasan Razavi irrigated wheat insurance, a simultaneous equation system model . The sample size was determined by proportional sampling Collected. The results indicate that insured farming in warm-temperate and cold-temperate regions have not reduced inputs for production per unit area of wheat, indicating a lack of ethical risk in these areas. In contrast, the results from the cold zone show that the insured beneficiaries has reduced the consumption of inputs in the area, indicating a moral hazard in this area. Also, the results of the test of the hypothesis of constant returns to scale versus the decreasing or increasing return hypothesis for variable inputs show the absence of adverse selection. Therefore, it is suggested that appropriate training and extension classes be held for farmers in order to better understand the time and manner of using chemical fertilizers and the appropriate time for irrigation.

منابع و مأخذ:

1. Agriculture Organization of Khorasan Razavi. 2018; Available on the site  <https://www.Koaj.ir/>

2. Agricultural Insurance Fund. 2018; Available on the site  http://www.sbkiran.ir/

3. Alibolandi M, Parva S. Investigating the effect of ethical risks on agricultural insurance in Iran. International Conference on Management and Humanities. 2015; Emirate of Dubai, Vira Idea Managers Institute.

4. Babcook B, Hennessy D. Input demand under yield and revenue insurance. American Journal of Agricultural Economics.1996; 78:416-427. https:// doi.org/ 10.2307/1243713

5. Becker S, Ichino A. Estimation of average treatment effects based on propensity scores. The Stata Journal. 2002; 2(4): 358–377. https:// doi.org/ 10.1177/ 1536867X0200200403

6. Bashir MK, Schilizzi S, Pandit R. The determinants of rural household food security in the Punjab, Pakistan: an econometric analysis.  Working Papers 122526, University of Western Australia, School of Agricultural and Resource Economics. 2012 ; DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.122526

7. Bajari P, Hong H, Khwaja A. A Semiparametric analysis of adverse selection and moral hazard in health insurance contracts. Working paper; 2011; No. 12445.

8. Clafferty B. Ensuring food security in Egypt: food subsidy, income generation and market reform. Food Policy. 2000; 25(2):219-224. RePEc:eee:jfpoli:v: 25:y: 2000:i:2 :p: 219-224

9. Cutler DM, Reber SJ. Paying for health insurance: the trade-off between competition and adverse selection. The Quarterly Journal of Economics. 1998;113(2):433-466. https://doi.org/10.1162/003355398555649

10. Cutler DM, Zeckhauser RJ. The Anatomy of health insurance. Culyer, Anthony J. and   Joseph P. Newhouse (eds) Handbook of Health Economics Vol. Amsterdam; New York: Elsevier. 2000;  1: 563-6. https:// doi.org/ 10.1016/ S1574-0064(00) 80170-5

11. De Meza D, Webb DC. Advantageous selection in insurance markets. RAND Journal of Economics. 2001; 32(2):249-62. https:// doi.org/10.2307/2696408

12. Ezatabadi M. Study of systemic risk phenomena, ethical risk and inconsistent selection in agricultural product insurance plans in Iran: A Case Study of Pistachio. agricultural insurance. 2006; 3(3):12-41.

13. Fan S. Research investment and the economic returns to Chinese agricultural research. Journal of Productivity Analysis. 2000; 14(2):163-82. https :// doi.org/ 10.1023/ A:1007803108805

14. Fooladizadeh M, Barani H, Abedi Sarvestani E, Mostafalo H. Agricultural product insurance performance in Golestan province, with emphasis on livestock and rangeland insurance (the case area of Aq Qala city). The Second National Conference on Conservation of Natural Resources and Environment. 2015; March 4 and 5. Ardabil. Mohaghegh Ardabili University.

15. Feldman R, Dowd B. Must adverse selection cause premium spirals?. Journal of Health Economics. 1991;10(3):349-57. https: // doi.org/ 10.1016/ 0167-6296 (91) 90035-L

16. Goodwin BK, Smith VH. The economics of crop insurance and disaster aid. Southern Economic Journal. 1996; 63(1):  264-266. https://doi.org/10.2307/1061324

17. Habibi Node F, Ghorbani M, Kohansal M, Abyar N. Pattern of influence of inputs on risk of irrigated and dryland wheat production in East Golestan Province. Agricultural Economic and Development. 2017; 28(1): 67-92. 10.30490 /AEAD. 2020.121575

18. Heady EO, CF C, John LD. Agricultural production funcitons. Agricultural production funcitons. 1960; Kalyani press, Ludhiana, India.

19. Hyde CE, Vercammen JA. Costly yield verification, moral hazard, and crop insurance contract form. Journal of Agricultural Economics. 1997; 48(1‐3): 393-407. DOI: 10.1111/ j.1477-9552.1997.tb01161.x

20. He J, Zheng X, Rejesus RM, Yorobe Jr JM. Moral hazard and adverse selection effects of cost‐of‐production crop insurance: evidence from the Philippines. Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics. 2019; 63(1):166-97. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8489.12290

21. Intriligator MD, Bodkin RG, Hsiao C. Econometric Models, Techniques, and Applications. 1996; (2nd Edition), Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall, USA.

22. Kaneda H. Specification of production functions for analyzing technical change and factor inputs in agricultural development. Journal of Development Economics. 1982; 11(1):97-108. https:// doi.org /10.1016/ 0304-3878(82)90045-1

23. Ke WA, Zhang Q, Kimura S, Akter S. Is the crop insurance program effective in China? Evidence from farmers' analysis in five provinces. Journal of Integrative Agriculture. 2015; 14(10):2109-20. https:// doi.org/ 10.1016/ S2095-3119(14)60842-X

24. Karim M.H,  Pourmoghadam A.R, Mohhamadrezazadeh N, Rahnama A, Sardar Shahraki A. Study of moral hazard phenomenon of barley insurance plan in Khorasan Razavi. Development and Agriculture Economics. 2013; 21(4): 103-122. 10.30490/AEAD.2014.58720.

25. Kimura S, Antón J, LeThi C. Farm level analysis of risk and risk management strategies and policies: Cross Country Analysis. OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries. 2011; 48: 1-37. DOI: 10.1787/5kmd6b5rl5kd-en

 

26. Kai L, Prabhala NR. Self-selection models in corporate finance. Handbook of Empirical Corporate Finance. 2007; 1:37-86.

27. Mahdavi G. Advantageous selection versus adverse selection in life insurance market. Japanese Society for the Promotion of Science. 2005 Nov. International Business Research Conference. Athens, Nov.11-13.

28. Mcleman R, Smit B. Vulnerability to climate change hazards and risks: crop and flood insurance. Canadian Geographer/ Le Géographe canadien. 2006; 50(2): 217-26.

29. Ministry of Agriculture Jihad. 2018; Available on the site  <https://www.maj.ir/>

30. Mohammadi M. There is an unfavorable choice in life insurance. Insurance Research Journal. 2013; 28(40): 1-20. magiran.com/p1418690

31. Moin Dini A. Study of economic factors of wheat production in Fars province. The third international conference on modern research in management, economics and humanities. 2016.

32. Nikoei A, Torkamani J. Wheat insurance with a look at the issues of moral hazards and Adverse Selection: A case study in Fars provinc. Iranian Journal of Agricultural Sciences.2002; 33:157-170.

33. Parva S, Alibolandi M. Investigating the effect of ethical risks on agricultural insurance in Iran. 2015; 2nd International Conference on New Research in Management, Economics and Accounting, Kuala Lumpur-Malaysia, Leading Carin Institute.

34. Pauly MV. Adverse selection and moral hazard: implications for health insurance markets. Incentives and choice in health care. 2008; chapter 5. PP: 103-129.

35. Quiggin JC, Karagiannis G, Stanton J. Crop insurance and crop production: an empirical study of moral hazard and adverse selection. Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics. 1993;37(2):95-113. DOI: 10.1007/978-94-011-1386-1_9

36. Rahmati E, Kohansal M, Ghorbani M. Investigating the tendency of Mashhad wheat farmers to participate in new agricultural insurance policies. Journal of Agriculture and Development. 2015; 23(91):135-158. 10.30490/AEAD.2015.59006

37. Roberts MJ, Key N, O'Donoghue E. Estimating the extent of moral hazard in crop insurance using administrative data. Review of Agricultural Economics. 2006 Oct 1;28(3):381-90.

38. Rosenbaum PR, Rubin DB. The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects. Biometrika. 1983 Apr 1;70(1):41-55. https://doi.org/10.2307/2335942

39. Rostamian M, Haji Rahimi M, Skandari F.  Investigating the presence of adverse selection in strawberry crop insurance in Sanandaj city.2013; Master's thesis, University of Kurdistan.

40. Samuelson PA. Paul Douglas's measurement of production functions and marginal productivities. Journal of Political Economy. 1979; 87(5&1): 923-39. https:// doi.org/ 10.1086/260806

41. Salem B. The production and trade trends of agriculture in Iran and selected countries with regard to trade liberalization in recent decades. Investigate foreign issues and policies. 2012; 12 (4&5): 39-60. http:// ejip.ir/ article1-59-fa.html.

42. Salami H, Dourandish A. Obstacles and challenges facing agricultural insurance. 2005; Tehran Scientific Conference on Agricultural Products Insurance.

43. Shaik S, Atwood JA. An examination of different types of adverse selection in federal crop insurance. 2002; (No. 1843-2016-152414). Present at the Weston Agricultural Economics Association Meetings Long Beach.

44. Siegelman P. Adverse selection in insurance markets: an exaggerated threat. The Yale Law Journal. 2004; 113(6):1223-81. https:// doi.org/ 10.2307/4135724

45. Smith V.H, Goodwin BK. Crop insurance, moral hazard, and agricultural chemical use. American Journal of Agricultural Economics. 1996; 78(2):428-38. https:// doi.org/ 10.2307/ 1243714

46. Torkamani J. Interfering risk in crop planning. Journal of Agricultural Economic and Development. 1997; 15: 113-130.

47. Torkamani J. Surveying agricultural production insurance in reducing risk and in users income unequality: A Case Study of Fars province. Journal of Agricultural Economics Researches. 2010; 1(1): 17-34.

48. Torkmani j, Mosavi N. Investigating the effects of crop insurance on production efficiency and risk management in agriculture: A case study in Fars province. Agricultural Economics Research.2011; 3(1):1-26.

49. Wang M, Ye T, Shi P. Factors affecting farmers’ crop insurance participation in China. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie. 2016;64(3):479-92. https: //doi.org/ 10.1111/ cjag.12088

50. Wang H.H., Hanson SD, Myers RJ, Black JR. The effects of crop yield insurance designs on farmer participation and welfare. American Journal of Agricultural Economics. 1998; 80(4):806-20. https://doi.org/10.2307/1244065

51. Walters AA. Production and cost functions: An econometric survey. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society. 1963; 1:1-66. https://doi.org/10.2307/1910949

52. Williams JR, Carriker GL, Barnaby GA, Harper JK. Crop insurance and disaster assistance designs for wheat and grain sorghum. American Journal of Agricultural Economics. 1993; 75(2):435-47. https:// doi.org/ 10.2307/1242928