اثر نهادها بر صادرات پسته ایران به بلوک‌های آسیایی (رویکرد اقتصادسنجی فضایی)

محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی

شکوفه ناقلی ¹ (دکتری علوم اقتصادی دانشگاه سمنان)
مجید مداح ² (مدیر گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه سمنان)
اسمعیل ابونوری ³ (عضو هیات علمی دانشگاه سمنان)

تاریخ دریافت : 1398/02/10 تاریخ پذیرش : 1400/03/23 تاریخ انتشار : 1400/08/01

کلید واژه: اقتصاد ایران, اقتصادسنجی فضایی, صادرات پسته, نهادها,

چکیده مقاله :

مقدمه و هدف:ایران به عنوان یکی از بزرگ­ترین تولیدکنندگان و صادرکنندگان پسته در بازارهای جهانی محسوب می­شود. با توجه به آن که صادرات این کالا یکی از منابع مهم درآمدهای ارزی است و نقش مهمی در کاهش وابستگی بودجه عمومی دولت به درآمدهای نفتی دارد، شناسایی عوامل تأثیرگذار بر صادرات پسته به بازارهای جهانی ضروری است و می­تواند به ارتقاء جایگاه کشور در بازار جهانی پسته منجر شود. شرایط نهادی یکی از عوامل مؤثر بر صادرات کالاها از جمله پسته از ایران به بازارهای جهانی است.
مواد و روش­ها: این مقاله به بررسی تجربی اثر نهادها بر صادرات پسته ایران به بلوک­های آسیایی با استفاده از روش اقتصادسنجی فضایی و مدل مختلط رگرسیون- خود رگرسیونی فضایی می­پردازد. الگوی پژوهش یک مدل رگرسیونی با داده­های پانل طی دوره زمانی 2000-2015 از تجارت ایران با بلوک­های آسیایی است.
یافته­ها: نتایج حاصل از تخمین مدل نشان می­دهد متغیر شاخص راهنمای ریسک بین­المللی کشورها به عنوان شاخص نمایانگر نهادها دارای اثر مثبت و معنی دار بر صادرات پسته ایران به بلوک­های آسیایی است.
بحث و نتیجه­گیری: شاخص راهنمای ریسک بین­المللی کشورها سه نوع ریسک سیاسی، مالی و اقتصادی کشورها در بر می­گیرد که طبق یافته­های مقاله به عنوان یکی از مهم­ترین موانع گسترش سرمایه­گذاری و تجارت پسته در ایران به شمار می­آید. کاهش این ریسک، ثبات سیاسی، مالی و اقتصادی را در پی دارد و موجب رشد صادرات پسته ایران می­شود.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Introduction: Iran is as one of the largest producers and exporters of pistachio in world markets. Considering that the export of this commodity is one of the main sources of foreign exchange earnings and has an important role in reducing the government's general budget dependence on oil revenues, identifying the factors affecting on pistachio exports to world markets is essential and it can lead to the improvement of the country's position in the global pistachio market. Institutional conditions are the factors affecting on the export of goods, including pistachio from Iran to world markets.
Materials andMethods: This paper examines the effect of institutions on Iranian pistachio exports to Asian blocs using the spatial econometric method and Mixed Regressive-Spatial Autoregressive Model. The research pattern is a regression model with panel data during the time period 2000-2015 from Iranian trade with Asian blocs.
Findings: The results of model estimation are shown International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) variable as an indicator of institutions has a positive and significant effect on Iranian pistachio exports to Asian blocs.
Conclusion: The International Country Risk Guide index has three types of political, financial and economic risk of the country, according to the findings of the article as one of the most important obstacles to the expansion of investment and pistachio trade in Iran. Reducing this risk brings political, financial and economic stability will increase Iranian pistachio exports.

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