بررسی عوامل اقتصادی موثر بر عرضه شیر در ایران، رهیافت گشتاورهای تعمیم-یافته ( GMM)

محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی

رضا رنج پور ¹ , حبیب آقاجانی ² , اکبر سلمانی ³

1 - گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه تبریز
2 - دانشگاه تبریز
3 - دانشگاه تبریز

تاریخ دریافت : 1396/07/02 تاریخ پذیرش : 1400/03/23 تاریخ انتشار : 1400/08/01

کلید واژه: عرضه شیر, دامپروری, قیمت شیر, الگوی پویا, روش گشتاور های تعمیم‌یافته,

چکیده مقاله :

مقدمه و هدف: با توجه به اهمیت شیر هم در بخش تولید (به علت میزان اشتغال­زایی و ایجاد درآمد برای فعالان این حوزه) و هم در بخش تقاضا و مصرف (به علت تاثیر آن بر سلامت عمومی و غیره) یکـی از هدف‌های مهـم سیاسـت­گذاری دولت­ در بخش کشاورزی می­تواند افزایش عرضه و تقاضای شیر باشد.
مواد و روش­ها: هدف این مطالعه بررسی تأثیر عوامل اقتصادی مؤثر بر عرضه شیر در ایران براساس داده های استان‌ها می­باشد. براین اساس در راستای اهداف پژوهش از داده­های 28 استان ایران در بازه زمانی 1394-1381استفاده‌ شد. مدل پژوهش با استفاده از رهیافت داده­های تابلویی و در قالب روش گشتاورهای تعمیم­یافته برآورد شد.
یافته­ها:  با توجه به نتایج حاصل از تخمین مدل، عرضه شیر در ایران از تعداد دام تاثیر مثبت و از هزینه نهاده‌های دامی تاثیر منفی می‌پذیرد. هم‌چنین، با وقفه یکساله، قیمت شیر و سطح مرتع تاثیر مثبت و قیمت گوشت تاثیر منفی بر عرضه شیر دارد.
بحث و نتیجه­گیری: اصلاح نژاد دام‌های شیرده، حمایت قیمتی، استفاده از فناوری‌های نوین دامپروری و مدیریت چرای دام از راهکارهای پیشنهادی برای ارتقای عرضه شیر در کشور می‌باشد

چکیده انگلیسی:

Introduction: Given the importance of milk both in the production sector (due to job creation and income generation for activists in this field) and in demand and consumption (due to its impact on public health, etc.) one of the important goals of government policy in the agricultural sector can be to increase the supply and demand of milk.
Materials and Methods: The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of economic factors affecting milk supply in Iran based on the data collected from the provinces. The research model was estimated using the panel data approach in the form of generalized method of moments.
Findings: According to the results of model estimation, milk supply in Iran is positively affected by the number of livestock and negatively affected by the cost of livestock inputs. Also, with a one-year break, milk prices and pasture area have a positive effect and meat prices have a negative effect on milk supply.
Conclusion: Breeding of lactating cattle, price support, use of new animal husbandry technologies and management of livestock grazing are some of the proposed solutions to improve the milk supply in the country.

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