بررسی اثرات رشد اقتصادی بخش کشاورزی بر بیابان زایی در ایران

محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی

فرزانه گرگانی ¹ , حمید امیرنژاد ² , مهسا تسلیمی ³

1 - دانشگاه کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری
2 - گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده مهندسی زراعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری
3 - گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده مهندسی زراعی، دانشگاه کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری

تاریخ دریافت : 1397/08/15 تاریخ پذیرش : 1399/02/26 تاریخ انتشار : 1399/05/01

کلید واژه: گسترش بیابان, رشد اقتصاد کشاورزی, فرضیه محیط‌زیستی کوزنتس, روش خودرگرسیونی با وقفه‌های توزیعی داده‌های پانل,

چکیده مقاله :

چکیده:
بیابان‌زایی به روند تخریب اکوسیستم‌های شکننده و ناپایداری گفته می‌شود که در اثر تغییرکاربری یا فشار بر روی اراضی توسط دخالت‌های انسانی گسترش می‌یابد و در نهایت منجر به کاهش تولید بیولوژیک می‌گردد. در بعضی از نقاط زمین با گسترش بیابان‌ها، تولید مواد غذایی کاهش و منابع آب خشک می‌شوند، در نتیجه جمعیت‌ها به سمت مناطق دیگر حرکت می‌کنند. این مهاجرت‌ها با توجه به ظرفیت محدود شهرها برای ارائه امکانات و خدمات مشکلات جدی اجتماعی اقتصادی در پی خواهد داشت. در این پژوهش رابطه بلندمدت و کوتاه‌مدت بین متغیرهای بیابان-زایی، تولید ناخالص داخلی بخش کشاورزی، مساحت جنگل، متوسط بارش سالانه، سرمایه‌گذاری انجام شده برای مقابله با بیابان‌زایی در قالب فرضیه محیط‌زیستی کوزنتس و با استفاده از الگوی خودرگرسیونی با وقفه‌های توزیعی داده‌های پانل (ARDL PANEL) در سال‌های 1394- 1365 برای استان‌های هم‌جوار با بیابان‌های ایران از جمله (تهران، خراسان، کرمان، یزد، اصفهان، سیستان و بلوچستان و سمنان) مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. نتایج نشان داد که شکل U معکوس فرضیه محیط‌زیستی کوزنتس در استان‌های مورد مطالعه در بلند‌مدت تأیید می‌شود.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Abstract:
Desertification refers to the process of degradation of fragile and unsustainable ecosystems, which, due to the change in use or pressure on the land, is spreading through human intervention and ultimately leads to a reduction in biological production. In some parts of the world, with the expansion of deserts, food production is reduced and water resources are dried, as a result, populations move to other areas. Due to the limited capacity of cities to provide facilities and services, these migrations will have serious socio-economic problems. In this study, the long-run and short-run relationship between desertification variables, GDP, agricultural area, forest area, average annual precipitation, investments made to deal with desertification in the form of Kuznets environmental hypothesis and using ARDL PANEL Distribution determining model for agricultural province with Iranian destructs (Tehran, Khorasan, Kerman, Yazd, Isfahan, Sistan and Baluchestan And Semnan) have been investigated. The results showed that the inverse U-shape of the Kuznets environmental hypothesis in the studied provinces was confirmed in the long run.

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