بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر آلودگی محیط‌زیست در ایران

محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی

سید محمدرضا مهدویان ¹ , سامان ضیائی ² , علیرضا کیخا ³

1 - دانشجوی دکتری، اقتصاد کشاورزی، گرایش منابع طبیعی و محیط زیست،دانشگاه زابل، ایران.
2 - دانشیار، دانشکده کشاورزی،گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی،دانشگاه زابل، ایران.
3 - استادیار، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی،دانشگاه زابل.

تاریخ دریافت : 1397/11/08 تاریخ پذیرش : 1400/07/19 تاریخ انتشار : 1400/11/01

کلید واژه: رشد اقتصادی, شکست ساختاری, سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی, مصرف برق, آلودگی زیست محیطی,

چکیده مقاله :

مقدمه و هدف: با توجه به اهمیت مسائل زیست­محیطی، شناسایی عوامل مؤثر بر آلودگی محیط­زیست بیش از گذشته مورد توجه قرار گرفته است. از این رو، مطالعه حاضر به بررسی اثرات مصرف برق، توسعه مالی، سرمایه­گذاری مستقیم خارجی و رشد اقتصادی بر انتشار  در ایران طی سال­های 1970-2016 پرداخته است.
مواد و روش­ها: برای این منظور، از روش خود توضیح با وقفه­های گسترده استفاده گردید و جهت بررسی مانایی، از آزمون­های ریشه واحد دیکی فولر تعمیم‌یافته، زیوت-اندریوز و لی- استرازیسیچ استفاده شد. همچنین جهت بررسی هم انباشتگی، آزمون گریگوری-هانسن به کار گرفته شد.
یافته­ها: نتایج حاصل از تخمین بلندمدت نشان ­می­دهد که مصرف برق و رشد اقتصادی اثری مثبت بر میزان انتشار کربن دارند و با افزایش یک درصدی آن­ها، میزان انتشار کربن به ترتیب 58/0 و 05/0 درصد افزایش می­یابند. رابطه توسعه مالی و انتشار کربن منفی است و با افزایش یک درصدی توسعه مالی، انتشار کربن به میزان 09/0 درصد کاهش خواهد یافت. رابطه سرمایه­گذاری مستقیم خارجی و انتشار کربن (آلودگی) مثبت است و نشان می­دهد فرضیه پناهگاه آلودگی در ایران دارای اعتبار است و با افزایش یک درصدی سرمایه­گذاری مستقیم خارجی، میزان انتشار کربن، 01/0 درصد افزایش خواهد یافت.
بحث و نتیجه­گیری: با توجه به نتایج به دست آمده و از آنجایی که ایران از نظر منابع تجدید پذیر جز کشورهای غنی محسوب می­گردد، ضروری است کشور ایران با یک برنامه­ریزی مدون، ضمن رهایی بودجه و تولید ناخالص داخلی از دام درآمدهای نفتی، به سمت جایگزینی منابع تجدید ناپذیر حرکت کند تا ضمن حفظ منابع انرژی، آلودگی­های زیست­محیطی نیز کاهش یابد. همچنین ضروری است که دولت و قانون‌گذاران در ایران به دنبال جذب سرمایه در زمینه بازسازی بخش تولیدی کشور به ویژه صنعت و به‌کارگیری فناوری­های دوستدار محیط‌زیست باشند.
طبقه­بندی JEL: Q50, P18,C50.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Introduction: Regarding the importance of environmental issues, identification of the factors affecting environmental pollution has been considered more than ever. The present study examines the effects of electricity consumption, financial development, foreign direct investment and economic growth on carbon emissions in Iran over the years 1970-2016.
Material and Methods: For this purpose, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag method was used. To verify the Stationary, Augmented Dickey Fuller, Zivot – Andrews and Lee, Strazicich tests were used. Also, to investigate co-integration, Gregory-Hansen test were used.
Finding: The results of the ARDL model estimation with presence of Structural Break show, electricity consumption and economic growth has a positive effect on carbon emissions. And with a one percent increase, carbon emissions increased by 0.58% and 0.05%, respectively. The relationship between financial development and carbon emissions is negative, with a one-percent increase in financial development, carbon emissions will fall by 0.09 percent. The relation between foreign direct investment and carbon emissions is positive, which shows that the Pollution haven hypothesis has been approved in Iran and with a one percent increase in foreign direct investment, carbon emissions will increase by 0.01 percent.
Conclusion: Based on the results, and given that Iran is considered as a renewable resource, except for the rich countries, it is essential that, with a streamlined plan, both the release of budget and GDP from the trap of oil revenues, towards the replacement of renewables In order to maintain energy resources, environmental pollution will also decrease. It is also imperative that the government and legislators in Iran seek to raise funds for the reconstruction of the country's manufacturing sector, especially the industry and the use of environmentally friendly technologies.
JEL Classification: Q50, P18, C50

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