اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر شرایط هیدرولوژیکی و اقتصادی کشاورزان دشت بوشکان
محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزیحمیده دانشگر 1 , مهرداد باقری 2 , مصظفی مردانی نجف آبادی 3 , فاطمه علیجانی 4 , غلامرضا یاوری 5
1 - دانشجوی دکتری گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران.
2 - استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران.
3 - استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی خوزستان، ملاثانی، ایران.
4 - استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران.
5 - دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران.
کلید واژه: استان بوشهر, الگوی کشت, برنامه‌ریزی ریاضی مثبت, مدل LARS-WG, مدل WEAP,
چکیده مقاله :
برای کاهش اثرات پدیده تغییر اقلیم و بحران کم آبی بر بخش‌های گوناگون اقتصادی بویژه بخش کشاورزی، مدیریت جامع منابع آب ضروری است. هدف این پژوهش، ارزیابی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر وضعیت هیدرولوژیکی و الگوی کشت در محدوده دشت بوشکان از شهرستان دشتستان در استان بوشهر است. در این پژوهش برای بررسی وضعیت هیدرولوژیکی، عملکرد و نیاز آبی محصولات کشاورزی از مدل WEAP ماژول اقتصادی-زراعی آن MABIA استفاده شد. برای اعمال سناریوی تغییر اقلیم، از داده های هواشناسی شبیه سازی شده توسط مدلLARS_WG برای دوره زمانی2050-2019 در قالب دو سناریوی خوش‌بینانه و بدبینانه کمک گرفته شد. داده های مورد نیاز، از راه تکمیل و استخراج پرسشنامه مربوط به 100 بهره بردار در سال زراعی 97-96 گردآوری شد. سپس با استفاده از مدل برنامه ریزی ریاضی مثبت، اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر الگوی کشت برآورد شد. نتایج نشان داد که با اعمال سناریوهای پژوهش، مقدار آب در دسترس در دوره 2050-2019 به صورت میانگین 14.4 تا 18.5 درصد کاهش می‌یابد. با اعمال این تغییرات در مدل برنامه‌ریزی ریاضی مثبت مشخص شد که در سناریوی خوش‌بینانه، سطح زیر کشت و سود ناخالص به ترتیب 25.5 و 42.45 درصد و در سناریوی بدبینانه، 38.63 و55.26 درصد کاهش می یابد.
Bushkan is one of the most important plains of Bushehr province which is considered as the agricultural pole of this province. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of climate change on the cropping patterns in different areas of Bushkan plain. Accordingly, in this study, the WEAP model and its agro-economic model, MABIA, have been used to study the hydrological status of the plain. Finally, using the positive mathematical programming (PMP), the effects of climate change on the cropping patterns in different areas of the Bushkan plain has been studied. The results show that by applying RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, the water availability of different regions of Bushkan Plain during the 2018-2050 period is reduced by an average of 6 and 12 percent. By applying these changes to the positive mathematical programming, it was found that the total area under the cultivation of six areas is greatly reduced. According to this fallow agricultural lands is suggested as an appropriate solution to prevent long-term damage to agricultural production in the region.
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