تحلیل زیانگریزی و اطمینان بیشازحد سرمایهگذاران در شکلدهی سناریوهای آینده ارزش بازار و بازده دارایی بانکهای پذیرفته شده در بورس تهران: رویکردی آیندهپژوهانه
محورهای موضوعی : پژوهش های مالی و رفتاری در حسابداری
محمدطاهر احمدی شادمهری
1
,
ابراهیم قائد
2
*
,
محسن راجی اسدآبادی
3
1 - دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد
2 - دانشجوی دکتری گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران
3 - دانشجوی دکتری گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد شیراز، شیراز، ایران
کلید واژه: زیانگریزی, اطمینان بیش از حد سرمایه¬گذاران, بانکهای پذیرفته شده در بورس تهران, دادههای تابلویی ,
چکیده مقاله :
سرمایهگذاران در بازارهای مالی تحت تأثیر رفتارهایی مانند زیانگریزی و اطمینان بیش از حد قرار دارند که میتواند بر ارزش بازار و بازده داراییهای بانکها اثر بگذارد. این پژوهش با استفاده از دادههای بانکهای پذیرفتهشده در بورس تهران طی سالهای 1395 تا 1402، نقش این سوگیریهای رفتاری را در عملکرد مالی بررسی میکند. نتایج نشان میدهد که زیانگریزی سرمایهگذاران اثر منفی و معناداری بر بازده دارایی بانکها (ROA) دارد؛ به این معنا که افزایش زیانگریزی منجر به کاهش بازدهی داراییهای بانکها میشود. این امر نشاندهنده آن است که احتیاط بیش از حد سرمایهگذاران در مواجهه با ریسکهای بازار، فرصت های سودآور سرمایهگذاری را کاهش میدهد. همچنین، نتایج حاکی از آن است که اطمینان بیش از حد سرمایهگذاران اثر منفی و معناداری بر ارزش بازار بانکها (MV) دارد، بهگونهای که افزایش اطمینان بیش از حد منجر به کاهش ارزش بازار بانکها میشود. این یافتهها بیانگر آن است که اعتماد بیش از حد سرمایهگذاران میتواند باعث عدم تعادل در قیمتگذاری سهام بانکها شده و ارزش بازار آنها را کاهش دهد. یافتههای این پژوهش نشان میدهد که برای بهبود ارزشگذاری بانکها، مدیران باید از ایجاد زیانگریزی و اطمینان بیشازحد در سیاستگذاری های خود اجتناب کرده و استراتژیهای متوازنتری برای مدیریت ریسک و افزایش ارزش بازار بانکها اتخاذ کنند.
Investors in financial markets are influenced by behaviors such as loss aversion and overconfidence, which can affect banks’ market value and asset returns. This study examines the role of these behavioral biases in the financial performance of banks listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange during 2016–2023. The results indicate that investors’ loss aversion has a significant negative impact on banks’ return on assets (ROA), meaning that higher loss aversion reduces banks’ asset returns. This suggests that excessive caution in facing market risks limits profitable investment opportunities. Moreover, the findings show that investors’ overconfidence has a significant negative effect on banks’ market value (MV), with higher overconfidence leading to a decline in market value. These results imply that excessive investor confidence can create imbalances in stock pricing and lower the market value of banks. The study suggests that, to enhance bank valuation, managers should avoid fostering loss aversion and overconfidence in their policies and adopt more balanced strategies for risk management and increasing market value
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