بررسی اجتماعی سیاسی و زیست محیطی رشد صنعتی ایران

محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه اقتصاد محاسباتی

محمد طاهری ¹ , کیا پارسا ^{2 *} , ناصر میکائیل وند ³

1 - دانشجوی دکتری واحد تهران شمال
2 - تهران شمال
3 - Department of Mathematics, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

تاریخ دریافت : 1403/10/10 تاریخ پذیرش : 1403/12/05 تاریخ انتشار : 1404/01/19

کلید واژه: تولید صنعتی, صادرات صنعتی, مولفه خطا 3 مرحله حداقل مربع, مدل داده‌های تابلویی همزمان, مهندسی سیستم‌های اجتماعی-اقتصادی.,

چکیده مقاله :

برای ارزیابی عملکرد زیرسیستم‌های صنعتی ایران از نظر اجتماعی (جینی)، سیاسی (دموکراسی)، محیطی (انتشار CO2) و ارزیابی عملکرد زیرسیستم‌های صنعتی ایران، یک سیستم داده‌های پانل همزمان معادلات ساخته و آن را با مولفه خطای 3SLS (با TSP و Eviews) تخمین زدیم. متغیرهای اقتصادی نتایج نشان می دهد که افزایش ارزش افزوده صنعتی منجر به آلودگی بیشتر (از نظر CO2) و تولید ناخالص داخلی نیز می شود، در حالی که افزایش ارزش افزوده و صادرات باعث کاهش ضریب جینی می شود. اما حتی افزایش دستمزدهای واقعی باعث افزایش جینی می شود. وقتی ضریب جینی افزایش یابد، دستمزد واقعی نیروی کار به شدت کاهش می یابد. افزایش نرخ تعرفه باعث افزایش تقاضا برای نیروی کار و صادرات و کاهش واردات زیربخش ها می شود و افزایش نرخ بهره باعث افزایش ارزش افزوده و صادرات می شود. همچنین نتایج نشان می‌دهد که انباشت سرمایه انسانی تأثیر مثبتی بر تولید و کاهش واردات زیربخش‌ها دارد. در مجموع می‌توان گفت که زیربخش‌های صنعتی که بر اساس کدهای 2 رقمی ISIC تعریف می‌شوند، مسیر توسعه بسیار پیچیده‌ای دارند که سیاست‌گذاران را برای برنامه‌ریزی یک سیاست صنعتی مطلوب برای اقتصاد و سایر بخش‌های آن با چالش‌های جدی مواجه می‌کند.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Extended Abstract

Purpose

In this paper, we study whether the industrial sector of Iran, and the economy as a whole, could tolerate these pressures to manage the society according to guidance of government plan known as resistive economy. For this purpose, we chose an industrial engineering view to construct a model for socio-political and economic systems which together constitute a grand system of industrial growth and development at the 1974-2009 period exactly before declaration of the plan to study the potentials of grand system according to the social, political, environmental and economic criteria and set a hypothetical system of equations according to industrial engineering view.

 We construct a panel data model from the sector specific statistical data of industry-specific variables and will setup with them a system to unfold the facts of this sector and see whether it has the sufficient and necessary characteristics to perform the objectives and desires and estimate the hypothetical grand system by error component 3 stage least square (EC3SLS) and will draw a clear picture of history of industrial sub-sectors and their accordance to objectives of the plan.

Methodology

We construct a system out of four subsystems of Economic, social, political and environmental dimensions of industrial growth of Iran in 36 years, 5 years before Islamic Revolution and 31 years after that. The main reason why we employ this time period is that first, the statistical availability of data on these aspects in terms of 2degit ISIC codes, and then, tracking the historical evolution of the industrial sector.

Finding

Based on the path the industrial sector of Iran followed from 1974 up to 2009, we construct a simultaneous panel data model and the claims that industrial sector is not capable of delivering inclusive growth, and good performance in resistive economy, is tested. The period of study is from 1974 to2009, the last year in which data in terms of ISIC 2-digit codes are available. This panel data approach (ec3sls) is used to study the effects of market competition and foreign direct investment on the technical efficiency of firms in Indonesia. we put together 4 subsystems of social, economic, environmental and political, and estimate the grand system. 

conclusion

As a conclusion, we need a new plan for resistive economy and other plans to solve new problem faced industrial sector. Especially now that we encounter other crisis such as covid-19 viruses, recession in the world economy and slowing down the price of crude oil, the main export of Iran and provider of foreign exchange necessary to run the path of development and industrial growth.

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