Socio-Political and Environmental Study of Iran's Industrial Growth between 1974-2017
Subject Areas : Computational economics
Mohammad Taheri
1
,
kiya parsa
2
*
,
Nasser Mikaeilvand
3
1 - Islamic Azad University, North Tehran Branch)IAUNTB(
2 -
3 - Department of Industrial Engineering, North Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
Keywords: Industrial Production, Industrial Export, Error Component 3 Stage least square, simultaneous panel data model, Socio-Economic systems engineering.,
Abstract :
Extended Abstract
Purpose
In this paper, we study whether the industrial sector of Iran, and the economy as a whole, could tolerate these pressures to manage the society according to guidance of government plan known as resistive economy. For this purpose, we chose an industrial engineering view to construct a model for socio-political and economic systems which together constitute a grand system of industrial growth and development at the 1974-2009 period exactly before declaration of the plan to study the potentials of grand system according to the social, political, environmental and economic criteria and set a hypothetical system of equations according to industrial engineering view.
We construct a panel data model from the sector specific statistical data of industry-specific variables and will setup with them a system to unfold the facts of this sector and see whether it has the sufficient and necessary characteristics to perform the objectives and desires and estimate the hypothetical grand system by error component 3 stage least square (EC3SLS) and will draw a clear picture of history of industrial sub-sectors and their accordance to objectives of the plan.
Methodology
We construct a system out of four subsystems of Economic, social, political and environmental dimensions of industrial growth of Iran in 36 years, 5 years before Islamic Revolution and 31 years after that. The main reason why we employ this time period is that first, the statistical availability of data on these aspects in terms of 2degit ISIC codes, and then, tracking the historical evolution of the industrial sector.
Finding
Based on the path the industrial sector of Iran followed from 1974 up to 2009, we construct a simultaneous panel data model and the claims that industrial sector is not capable of delivering inclusive growth, and good performance in resistive economy, is tested. The period of study is from 1974 to2009, the last year in which data in terms of ISIC 2-digit codes are available. This panel data approach (ec3sls) is used to study the effects of market competition and foreign direct investment on the technical efficiency of firms in Indonesia. we put together 4 subsystems of social, economic, environmental and political, and estimate the grand system.
conclusion
As a conclusion, we need a new plan for resistive economy and other plans to solve new problem faced industrial sector. Especially now that we encounter other crisis such as covid-19 viruses, recession in the world economy and slowing down the price of crude oil, the main export of Iran and provider of foreign exchange necessary to run the path of development and industrial growth.
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