Identifying the physical form of Mashhad based on the analysis of economic trends During 1986-2021

Subject Areas : Creative City Design

farid bashian ¹ , Hadi Sarvari ² , Toktam Hanaee ³ , Ali Akbar Sarvari ⁴

1 - PhD Candidate, Department of Urban planning, Mashhad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Mashhad, Iran
2 - Assistant Professor, Department of Urban planning, Mashhad branch, Islamic Azad University, Mashhad, Iran
3 - Associate Professor, Department of Urban planning, Mashhad branch, Islamic Azad University, Mashhad, Iran
4 - Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Mashhad branch, Islamic Azad University, Mashhad, Iran

Received: 2023-03-09 Accepted : 2023-08-19 Published : 2024-02-04

Keywords: Satellite Images, Economy, Trend analysis, Urban Form, VAR model,

Abstract :

In recent years, the physical form of Mashhad, as the second metropolis of the country, has been affected by macro economic indicators. In order to resist the impulses and pressure of the upcoming economic trends, it is necessary to measure the dimensions and the effect of the mentioned economic forces on the physical form of Mashhad in the past. Therefore The question of the current research is "What is the role of economic trends in the formation of the physical form of Mashhad ?".The approach of the current research is quantitative and a longitudinal survey research method has been used. In order to analyze the trend of economic indicators, the vector auto regression model has been used to measure the effects of variables on each other.Also Landsat satellite images have also been used to analyze the changes in the physical form of Mashhad city.The results of the research show that in recent years, the country's economic developments have led to an increase in the price of currency. This, along with other economic indicators, has caused inflation in the price of land, housing, and rent, and has prompted the city managers to reduce the inflation in land and housing by allowing the growth of Mashhad. The directions of development in the early years were generally in the north and east of the city, but in recent years, the city has expanded to the west and south. The results of the research show that the variables of exchange rate, Gini coefficient and unemployment rate have more stable effects than other economic variables on the physical form of Mashhad city in such a way that whenever one of these three variables is associated with a strong fluctuation, the physical form of Mashhad city is also affected.