List of articles (by subject) Financial Econometrics
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Open Access Article
1 - The Predictability Power of Neural Network and Genetic Algorithm from Fiems’ Financial crisis
Nader Rezaei Maryam JavaheriOrganizations expose to financial risk that can lead to bankruptcy and loss of business is increased nowadays. This may leads to discontinuity in operations, increased legal fees, administrative costs and other indirect costs. Accordingly, the purpose of this study was MoreOrganizations expose to financial risk that can lead to bankruptcy and loss of business is increased nowadays. This may leads to discontinuity in operations, increased legal fees, administrative costs and other indirect costs. Accordingly, the purpose of this study was to predict the financial crisis of Tehran Stock Exchange using neural network and genetic algorithm. This research is descriptive and practical and in order to collect data Stock Exchange database software has been used. For data analysis, we used artificial neural network in base form and artificial neural network mix with genetic algorithm. In addition for methods comparison, determination coefficient, Mean squared error and Root-mean square error have been used. The result of study shows that the best artificial neural network is a network with a hidden layer and eight neurons in the layer. This network could predict 97.7 percent of healthy and bankrupt companies correctly for test data. Furthermore the best mixed neural network with genetic algorithm is a network with 400 replications and population size 50, one layer and eight neurons which could correctly predict 100% of healthy and bankrupt companies. Finally, comparison of results of two methods shows that the best method for predicting financial crisis is mixed neural network with genetic algorithm. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
2 - The Relationship Between the Facility Interest Rate and Three Main Variable of the Money Market In Iran (1986-2017)
Zahra Haerinasab Kiomars Sohaili Shahram FattahiThe bank interest rate is one of the most important macroeconomic variable in each country economic. The purpose of this paper is find the relationship between the facility interest rate and three main variable of the money market.In Iran. this issue for equations the i MoreThe bank interest rate is one of the most important macroeconomic variable in each country economic. The purpose of this paper is find the relationship between the facility interest rate and three main variable of the money market.In Iran. this issue for equations the interest rate facility, the interest rate of deposit, inflation and credit risk utilizing the model simultaneous equation system and method three-stage least squares estimated. Results show that in this 32 year period the interest rate of the facility whit the interest rate on deposits is one of the most important macro- banking variable has a positive and significant relationship. So that with an increase in interest rate on deposits, the interest rate of facility also increases. It was also determined the interest rate of facility with inflation has a negative and significate relationship. This expresses with increasing inflation, the facility interest rate decreases. Because in Iran the rate of interest determined as an order, this result is not expected. The interest rate of facility and and credit risk have a positive and significant relationship, which represents it when the interest rate of facility increases, likelihood of non payment increased by borrowers. Also, inflation rate with liquidity and exchange rate has a positive relationship which is consistent reality. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
3 - The Empirical Test of the relationship between information asymmetry, Overvalued Equities and Stock Price Crash Risk
Mirfeiz Fallahshams Zahra Razmian MoghadamThis study examines empirically the effect of equity overvaluation on future stock price crash risk in companies with greater information asymmetry. Using the information asymmetry and crash risk indicators, the question that whether overvalued firms are more prone to f MoreThis study examines empirically the effect of equity overvaluation on future stock price crash risk in companies with greater information asymmetry. Using the information asymmetry and crash risk indicators, the question that whether overvalued firms are more prone to future crash risk is investigated. Accordingly, the first purpose of this study is to investigate the relation between overvaluation and the future stock price crash risk.With the increase of information asymmetry between a firm and the market, managers have more abilities and opportunities to withhold bad news and accelerating the release of good news. As a result, it is expected that the information asymmetry between managers and investors increases future stock price crash risk.In so doing, we identify one main hypothesis and three subsidiary ones and the data of 111 listed companies of Tehran Stock Exchange for the period between 2009 and 2017 were analyzed and A panel data approach has been used to test of research hypotheses.According to the results, there is a positive and significant relationship between the overvaluation and the future stock price crash risk of companies which are operating in monopolistic markets and this relation intensified by the information asymmetry. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
4 - The Relationship between Risk and Return on Financial Assets (The Panel Vector Auto-Regression and Panel Cointegration Ap-proaches)
Sorena Morovat Afshin BaghfalakiIn this study, considering the necessity and importance of the relationship between risk and return on investment, some explanations were presented about the relationship between risk and return on the asset portfolio including gold, exchange and stocks during the perio MoreIn this study, considering the necessity and importance of the relationship between risk and return on investment, some explanations were presented about the relationship between risk and return on the asset portfolio including gold, exchange and stocks during the period 2001: 1 - 2018: 3 using panel vector auto-regression (PVAR) method and Kao and Pedroni panel cointegration approach and pooled mean group (PMG) method and Engel-Granger time series methods. The software used in this study involves EVIEWS 10 and STATA15. In this study, multivariate GARCH (M-GARCH) approach (BEKK) was used to extract portfolio risk. The results showed a positive relationship between risk and return based on PVAR approach. And also, given the beta coefficient of the CAPM equation, gold was the best inflation cover during the period under study, with a slight difference from the exchange rate. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
5 - The effect of effective governance and quality of regulations on financial development in the current economic conditions of Iran
Kamran Sarhangi Mohammad Javad Mohaghegh Niya Maghsoud AmiriThe present study investigates effective governance and quality of regula-tions on financial development in Iran's current economic conditions. For this purpose, the model is estimated based on the annual data of 1996-2018 using Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR). MoreThe present study investigates effective governance and quality of regula-tions on financial development in Iran's current economic conditions. For this purpose, the model is estimated based on the annual data of 1996-2018 using Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR). The results of estimating the linear part of the model (first regime) show that the variables of GDP, role or the rule of law, quality of regulations, and government size have a significant and positive impact on Iran's financial development at 95% confi-dence level. Also, the variables of devaluation of the national currency and financial crises have a negative impact on financial development in the Irani-an economy. Besides, the results of the non-linear part of the model (second regime) show the existence of a positive relationship between the variables of role or the rule of law and GDP with financial development. The sign of the variables of quality of regulations, government budget deficit, govern-ment effectiveness, devaluation of the national currency, nuclear sanctions, and financial crises are negative that is expected because Iran is developing and growing. The positive sign of the lag of the dependent variable of the financial development index shows the country's attention to the issue of financial development and the use of solutions and attention to infrastructure to increase financial development over time, which needs more attention from government officials. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
6 - Support Vector Regression Parameters Optimization using Golden Sine Algorithm and Its Application in Stock Market
Mohammadreza Ghanbari Mahdi GoldaniStock price prediction is one of the most important concerns of stockholders. This prediction, independent of the method which is used or the assumptions which are applied, is welcomed and trusted if it can guarantee a high fitting. So due to the high performance predic MoreStock price prediction is one of the most important concerns of stockholders. This prediction, independent of the method which is used or the assumptions which are applied, is welcomed and trusted if it can guarantee a high fitting. So due to the high performance prediction, using some complicated models as Machine Learning family such as Support Vector Regression (SVR) was recommended instead of older and lower performance approaches such as multiple discriminant technique. SVR model have achieved high performance on forecasting problems, however, its performance is highly dependent on the appropriate selection of SVR parameters. In this study, a novel GSA-SVR model based on Golden Sine Algorithm is presented. The performance of the proposed model is compared with eleven other meta-heuristic algorithms on some stocks from NASDAQ. The results indicate that the given model here is capable of optimizing the SVR parameters very well and indeed is one of the best models judged by both prediction performance accuracy and time consumption. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
7 - Effect of Corporate Governance on Banking Failure
Azam Ahmadyan Mehdi Ghasemi Ali AbadiWe analyse the roles of bank Directors’ Effectiveness, Transparency and the Dis-closure, Responsibility and total corporate governance indicator in bank failures during 2006-2019, using Logistic model and Kaplan-Meier method. This study completes other studies to MoreWe analyse the roles of bank Directors’ Effectiveness, Transparency and the Dis-closure, Responsibility and total corporate governance indicator in bank failures during 2006-2019, using Logistic model and Kaplan-Meier method. This study completes other studies to make composite banking failure indicator. Good corpo-rate governance indicator was made. That it is one if corporate governance indica-tors for each bank are more than mean of sample and otherwise, it is zero. Forth we estimate the survival model according corporate governance indicators. Our results suggest that failures are strongly influenced by Corporate governance indicators. High Directors’ Effectiveness, Responsibility and total corporate governance indicator decrease failure risk significantly. In contrast Transparency and the Disclosure increase failure risk. These findings suggest that banks with more transparency are less survival than others. In contrast Responsibility has most effect on survival banks. There are positive relationship between bank size, inflation and banking failure and negative relationship between economic growth and banking failure indicator. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
8 - Past-oriented behavioral bias: A study on S&P & TEPIX index-es
Mohsen Mehrara Saeid Tajdini Jamal Maghsoudi Majid Lotfi Ghahroud Niloufar Ebrahimiyan Farzad JafariBehavioral finance had been becoming a fast-growing field of study in the past few years and because of the importance of investors' behavior in market performance, it's extremely noteworthy. By studying biases from their orientation perspective, we can divide them into MoreBehavioral finance had been becoming a fast-growing field of study in the past few years and because of the importance of investors' behavior in market performance, it's extremely noteworthy. By studying biases from their orientation perspective, we can divide them into two major groups, past-oriented, and current-oriented biases. In this research, a model had been developed for the past-oriented behavioral bias, which is closely related to the random walk theory. The research sample included the daily price information of 9 different industry indices in the Tehran Exchange Price Index (TEPIX), the index of 50 Top Companies in the Tehran Stock Exchange, and the S&P index in the New York Stock Exchange from 03/25/2011 to 03/19/2019. The results of the ARIMA model based on Markov switching models were measured for the degree of rigidity of these indexes by random walk theory, and then the effect of past-oriented behavioral bias was calculated in each of these 12 indexes by developing a new model. The results indicate that the cement index had the highest past-oriented behavioral bias (57%), followed by the top 50 companies index (46%), chemicals (41%), and oil product index (12%). However, the S&P index had no past-oriented behavioral bias. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
9 - Investigating portfolio performance with higher moment considering entropy and rolling window in banking, insurance, and leasing industries
Arash Amini Maryam Khalili Araghi Hashem NikoomaramThe optimal portfolio selection is vital for investment. The risk of portfolio Selection and return is the most critical concern of investment companies and private investors. According to modern portfolio theory, diversification should cover the risk. This theory is ba MoreThe optimal portfolio selection is vital for investment. The risk of portfolio Selection and return is the most critical concern of investment companies and private investors. According to modern portfolio theory, diversification should cover the risk. This theory is based on the normality of assets return. Experimental findings indicate that the assets return non-normality. Higher moments are sed to upgrade traditional models with the primary presumption of a normal distribution in recent years. This study uses a higher moment and the entropy for diversification and selects a portfolio given a non-normality assumption. It is essential to use up-to-date information to increase the model's efficiency, and accordingly, we used the rolling window for new price information. For the financial information method, we use the total index return in the last five working days and weigh the shares of the banking, insurance, and leasing industries on the next working day and evaluate this for three years. Python, math, and NumPy libraries were used to analyze the data. The results show that a much higher moment model can provide better portfolio selection results in most cases. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
10 - Investigating the Effect of Developing Financial Institutions on Economic Growth with Panel Vector Autoregressive Approach and Markov Switching Approach in MENA Member Countries
Marjan Habibollahi Reza Maaboudi Mohammad KhorsandThe financial sector plays a central role in economic development and growth, and due to playing an intermediary role in allocating resources to all sectors of the economy, by reducing financing costs and encouraging savings and their efficient use, a major contribution MoreThe financial sector plays a central role in economic development and growth, and due to playing an intermediary role in allocating resources to all sectors of the economy, by reducing financing costs and encouraging savings and their efficient use, a major contribution. In the long-term economic growth of the government in oil-exporting countries, relying on oil revenues, it is possible to enter the financial markets extensively and make various changes in it. The main goal of policymakers from such changes is to stimulate economic growth. But studies in this area show that fiscal development does not necessarily lead to economic growth. However, in recent decades, the role of financial development in economic growth has been forgotten. Therefore, this study examines the impact of the development of financial institutions on economic growth. The statistical population of the present study consists of MENA member countries in the period 1980 to 2019. In order to conduct this research, due to the nonlinear relationship between the research variables, the PSTR model and Markov switching time series pattern have been used. Financial depth, accessibility and efficiency are also variables in the development of financial institutions that have been considered in this study. The results indicate that all three components of the financial institutions development index have a significant effect on the economic growth variable. Manuscript profile