The improved Semi-parametric Markov switching models for predicting Stocks Prices

Subject Areas : Statistical Methods in Financial Management

Hossein Naderi ¹ , Mehrdad Ghanbari ² , Babak Jamshidi Navid ³ , Arash Nademi ⁴

1 - Department of Accounting, Ilam Branch, Islamic Azad University, Ilam, Iran
2 - Department of Accounting, Kermanshah Branch, Islamic Azad University, Kermanshah, Iran.
3 - Department of Accounting, Kermanshah Branch, Islamic Azad University, Kermanshah, Iran.
4 - Department of Statistics, Ilam Branch, Islamic Azad University , Ilam, Iran.

Received: 2021-02-17 Accepted : 2021-10-19 Published : 2024-02-26

Keywords: EM Algorithm, Markov Switching Models, Kernel function, Strategies for buying and selling,

Abstract :

The modelling of strategies for buying and selling in Stock Market Investment have been the object of numerous advances and uses in economic studies, both theoretically and empirically. One of the popular models in economic studies is applying the Semi-parametric Markov Switching models for forecasting the time series observations based on stock prices. The Semi-parametric Markov Switching models for these models are a class of popular methods that have been used extensively by researchers to increase the accuracy of fitting processes. The main part of these models is based on kernel and core functions. Despite of existence of many kernel and core functions that are capable in applications for forecasting the stock prices, there is a widely use of Gaussian kernel and exponential core function in these models. But there is a question if other types of kernel and core functions can be used in these models. This paper tries to introduce the other kernel and core functions can be offered for good fitting of the financial data. We first test three popular kernel and four core functions to find the best one and then offer the new strategy of buying and selling stocks by the best selection on these functions for real data.

References:


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