فهرست مقالات reproductive number

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  1 - AIDS Epidemic Modeling With Different Demographic Structures
  Agraj Tripathi Ram Naresh
  The most urgent public health problem today is to devise effective strategies to minimize the destruction caused by the AIDS epidemic. Mathematical models based on the underlying transmission mechanisms of the AIDS virus can help the medical/scientific community underst چکیده کامل

  The most urgent public health problem today is to devise effective strategies to minimize the destruction caused by the AIDS epidemic. Mathematical models based on the underlying transmission mechanisms of the AIDS virus can help the medical/scientific community understand and anticipate its spread in different populations and evaluate the potential effectiveness of different approaches for bringing the epidemic under control. In this paper, we present the framework of conventional compartmental models for the spread of HIV infection to investigate the effect of various types of growths of host population. The model presented has been studied qualitatively using stability theory of differential equations. The equilibrium and stability analysis have been carried out by establishing local and global stability results and some inferences have been drawn to understand the spread of the disease. A numerical study in each case is also performed to see the influence of certain parameters on the disease spread and to support the analytical results. The model analysis has also been applied to compare the theoretical results with the known Indian HIV data. پرونده مقاله
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  2 - Mathematical Model of Herpes Simplex Virus – II (HSV-II) with Global Stability Analysis
  Eshetu Gurmu Boka Bole Purnachandra Koya
  In this paper, a nonlinear deterministic mathematical model of ordinary differential equations has been formulated to describe the transmission dynamics of HSV-II. The well-posedness of the formulated model equations was proved and the equilibrium points of the model ha چکیده کامل

  In this paper, a nonlinear deterministic mathematical model of ordinary differential equations has been formulated to describe the transmission dynamics of HSV-II. The well-posedness of the formulated model equations was proved and the equilibrium points of the model have been identified. In addition, the basic reproduction number that governs the disease transmission was obtained from the largest eigenvalue of the next-generation matrix. Both local and global stability of the disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium point of the model equation was established using the basic reproduction number. The results show that, if the basic reproduction is less than one then the solution converges to the disease-free steady-state and the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable. On the other hand, if the basic reproduction number is greater than one the solution converges to endemic equilibrium point and the endemic equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable. Also, sensitivity analysis of the model equation was performed on the key parameters to find out their relative significance and potential impact on the transmission dynamics of HSV-II. Finally, numerical simulations of the model equations are carried out using the software DE Discover 2.6.4 and MATLAB R2015b with ODE45 solver. The results of simulation show that treatment minimizes the risk of HSV-II transmission from the community and the stability of disease-free equilibrium is achievable when R0<1. پرونده مقاله
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  3 - THE ROLE OF TREATMENT ON CONTROLLING CHANCROID PREVALENCE
  S. Mushayabasa C. P. Bhunu
  Chancroid is a highly infectious and curable sexually transmitted disease caused by the bacterium Haemophilus Ducreyl (also known as H. Ducreyl). A deterministic mathematical model for investigating the role of treatment on controlling chancroid epidemic is formulated a چکیده کامل

  Chancroid is a highly infectious and curable sexually transmitted disease caused by the bacterium Haemophilus Ducreyl (also known as H. Ducreyl). A deterministic mathematical model for investigating the role of treatment on controlling chancroid epidemic is formulated and rigorously analyzed. A threshold quantity known as the productive number, which measures the number of secondary infections produced by a single chancroid infective when introduced in a population of susceptible in the presence of treatment has been derived. Equilibria for the model are determined and their stability are examined. Latin hypercube sampling has been used to perform the sensitivity analysis of the reproductive number. پرونده مقاله