تاثیر تحولات ژئوپلیتیکی عراق بر امنیت ملی ایران بعد از سقوط صدام حسین از 2003 تا 2019
محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ایعبدالکریم انصاری 1 , حیدر لطفی 2 * , مجید ولی شریعت پناهی 3 , پیروز مجتهد زاده 4
1 - دانشجوی دکترای جغرافیای سیاسی، واحد گرمسار، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، گرمسار، ایران.
2 - دانشیار جغرافیای سیاسی ، واحد گرمسار، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، گرمسار، ایران.
3 - دانشیار جغرافیای انسانی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد شهر ری، تهران، ایران
4 - دانشیار جغرافیای سیاسی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران
کلید واژه:
چکیده مقاله :
عراق با ایران دارای طولانی‌ترین مرزهای سرزمینی در منطقه است. ویژگی مرزهای دو کشور به گونه ای است که تقویت نیازها و ظرفیت های متقابل اقتصادی را ضروری می سازد. عراق در دوره پسا صدام به دلیل عدم یکپارچگی سیاسی، عدم تاثیرگذاری کارآمد بر سیاست‌های جهانی و منطقه‌ای در ارتباط با دیگر کشورها، وجود اختلافات قومی-مذهبی، عدم همکاری با دول عرب منطقه جهت ثبات و امنیت در منطقه و ضعف ساختار نتوانست منافع، امنیت و اهداف خود را عملی سازند. با توجه به این که نگرش های موجود، اساس روابط ایران و عراق را بر پایه تفکرات امنیتی و تهدید متقابل و به طور کلی بی اعتمادی و سوء ظن تعریف می نمایند. از این لحاظ عراق یک رقیب استراتژیک و تهدید امنیتی برای ایران بوده و ممکن است در آینده نیز باشد، هدف این مقاله بررسی تاثیر تحولات ژئوپلیتیکی عراق بر امنیت ملی ایران بعد از سقوط صدام حسین از 2003 تا 2019 می باشد. سوال پژوهش این است که تاثیر تحولات ژئوپلیتیکی عراق بر امنیت ملی ایران بعد از سقوط صدام حسین از 2003 تا 2019 چگونه است؟ روش پژوهش ترکیبی از کیفی و کمی است. بخش کیفی مبتنی بر کدگذاری چند مرحله‌ای است. بخش کمی از نظر نوع توصیفی پیمایشی، از نظر هدف کاربردی خواهد بود. جامعه آماری شامل متخصصان و صاحب نظران فعال در حوزه علوم سیاسی و روابط بین الملل خواهد بود. نمونه آماری برابر 400 نفر از صاحبنظران جغرافیای سیاسی و به روش نمونه‌گیری تصادفی ساده انتخاب خواهند شد. ابزار پژوهش شامل روش مصاحبه، روش دلفی و پرسشنامه است.
Abstract
Iraq and Iran have the longest territorial borders in the region. The borders of the two countries are characterized in such a way that it is necessary to strengthen the mutual economic needs and capacities. Iraq in the post-Saddam period could not benefit from interests, security due to lack of political unity, lack of effective influence on global and regional policies in relation to other countries, ethnic-religious differences, lack of cooperation with Arab states in the region for stability and security in the region. And make their goals a reality. Given that the existing attitudes define the basis of Iran-Iraq relations on the basis of security considerations and mutual threats, and generally distrust and suspicion. In this regard, Iraq is a strategic competitor and security threat to Iran and may be in the future. The purpose of this article is to examine the impact of Iraqi geopolitical developments on Iran's national security after the fall of Saddam Hussein from 2003 to 2019. The research question is what is the impact of Iraq's geopolitical developments on Iran's national security after the fall of Saddam Hussein from 2003 to 2019? The research method is a combination of qualitative and quantitative. The quality part is based on multi-stage coding. A small part will be applied in terms of descriptive survey type in terms of purpose. The statistical community will include experts and thinkers active in the field of political science and international relations. A statistical sample of 400 political geography experts will be selected by simple random sampling. Research tools include interview methods (transcripts), Delphi method and questionnaire.
Extended Abstract
Introduction
The enduring element in analyzing Iran-Iraq relations post-Saddam is the regional competition between the two countries. Both Iran and Iraq are significant regional players with abundant economic, political, and cultural potential. These potentials lead to competition in various domains, including economic (like OPEC frameworks and regional consumer markets), political and security (such as rivalry in Gulf security arrangements and alliances with regional and global countries), and cultural (like promoting religious seminaries and presenting Shiite models in the Islamic world) (Barzegar, 2004).Historically, Iran and Iraq have experienced fluctuating political relations. Before the Iranian Revolution, both countries had agreements, but post-revolution, their relations entered a new phase, darkened by Iraq's war against Iran, severing political, commercial, and cultural ties. During the war, only the embassies remained nominally open, a rare occurrence in wartime history. Relations resumed post-war until the U.S. invasion of Iraq and the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime initiated a new chapter in Iran-Iraq relations.
Methodology
The research method employed is mixed, incorporating both qualitative and quantitative phases. The qualitative part is based on multi-step coding, while the quantitative part, which is a descriptive survey, will serve a functional purpose. The study's population includes experts active in the field of political science and international relations. The total number of research subjects is 344, with 51.1% men and 48.9% women. These subjects include political science professors and students of political science and international relations, selected through simple random sampling. Research tools include interview methods (transcripts), the Delphi method, and questionnaires.To validate the research tools, experts in political science and international relations will first evaluate the content and form. Then, the reliability of the questionnaire will be assessed using Cronbach's alpha in both the preliminary (pilot study) and final stages. Finally, the structure of the questionnaire and the overall research framework will be tested using factor analysis.The analysis of the statistical relationship between the lack of a national government in Iraq and the threat to Iran's national security, through cluster analysis in three categories (low, medium, high), based on the Chi-square homogeneity test using contingency tables, shows a statistically significant relationship between the dependent variable (lack of spontaneous civil institutions) and the independent variable (Iran's national security challenges). The findings reveal that the degree of absence of spontaneous civil institutions significantly impacts Iran's national security challenges. This positive relationship indicates that as the absence of these institutions increases, Iran's security challenges also rise.
Results and Discussion
In recent decades, the Middle East has been a hotspot for various crises, leading to national, regional, and international conflicts. Among the new phenomena in international relations is Islamic fundamentalism, which is now active in the Middle East and many other Islamic countries. Some Islamic fundamentalist groups use terrorism to achieve their goals, representing a form of political violence.Statistical analysis of the relationship between the occurrence of civil war in Iraq and Iran's national security, conducted through cluster analysis in three categories (low, medium, high), based on the Chi-square homogeneity test using contingency tables, indicates a statistically significant relationship between the dependent variable (occurrence of civil war in Iraq) and the independent variable (national security in Iran). The findings show a meaningful correlation between the frequency of the civil war in Iraq and Iran's national security index. This positive relationship implies that as the frequency of the civil war in Iraq increases, Iran's national security faces more significant challenges.Further, to address the research question, a linear regression test was used to examine the effects of the increasing occurrence of civil war in Iraq on Iran's national security index. The regression test results show that the beta coefficient for the impact of the increasing civil war in Iraq on Iran's national security index is 0.36.The analysis of the statistical relationship between geopolitical competition among regional and extra-regional powers in Iraq, the weakness of the political culture of its residents, and the challenges to Iran's national security, through cluster analysis in three categories (low, medium, high), based on the Chi-square homogeneity test using contingency tables, indicates a statistically significant relationship between the dependent variable (geopolitical competition and weak political culture in Iraq) and the independent variable (challenges to Iran's national security). The findings suggest a meaningful correlation between the level of geopolitical competition and the political culture in Iraq and Iran's national security challenges. This positive relationship indicates that as the political culture improves, the likelihood of security challenges in Iran also increases.
Conclusion
This article examines the relationship between Iraq's civil war and Iran's national security. The findings show that the majority of respondents see a strong relationship between the occurrence of the civil war in Iraq and Iran's security challenges. Additionally, 60.84% of the respondents believe that geopolitical competition in Iraq and the weakness of the political culture of its residents fuel Iran's security challenges. Finally, 83.98% of the respondents believe that the lack of a national government in Iraq is a threat to Iran's national security. The results of this research are consistent with previous studies in this field and confirm the proposed hypotheses. Previous studies by Qiyajondi, Tarkashund, Asadi, Niakoui and Moradi Kaladre, Shariati, Javadi Arjamand, Mohnam, Haji Yousefi, Talebi, Rafi, Memarzadeh, Pak Taynet, Sabzeei, Razaghi, Lotfi Khachki, Abbaszadeh, Nouri, Zulqader, and Elhiari support these findings.