ارزیابی ابعاد حکمروایی مطلوب شهری در کلانشهرهای ایران با رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی (نمونه موردی: کلانشهر رشت)
محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی و پژوهشی پژوهش و برنامه ریزی شهری
صادق صادقپور
1
,
بختیار عزت پناه
2
,
نادر زالی
3
1 - دانشجوی دکتری تخصصی شهرسازی، واحد مرند، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، مرند، ایران
2 - استادیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، واحد مرند، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، مرند، ایران
3 - دانشیار گروه شهرسازی، دانشکده هنر و معماری، دانشگاه گیلان
کلید واژه: مدیریت شهری, تکنیک دلفی, آینده پژوهی, حکمروایی خوب شهری, کلانشهر رشت,
چکیده مقاله :
این پژوهش به بررسی حکمروایی مطلوب شهری در کلانشهر رشت با رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی پرداخته است. در این مطالعه، ابعاد مختلف حکمروایی شهری ارزیابی و عوامل کلیدی شناسایی و رتبه‌بندی شدند. ابتدا با استفاده از تکنیک دلفی و نظرخواهی از 30 کارشناس، مهم‌ترین عوامل کلیدی حکمروایی شهری و شاخص‌های اجماع و قطعیت، اولویت و اهمیت شناسایی شدند. سپس 53 پیشران کلیدی برای تحلیل در نرم‌افزار Micmac تعیین شد. این پژوهش کاربردی و از نظر روش‌شناختی توصیفی ـ تحلیلی است و به شفافیت و پاسخگویی در فرآیندهای برنامه‌ریزی شهری می‌پردازد. بر مبنای 2714 ارزش محاسبه شده در ماتریس اولیه اثرات متقاطع، 836 مورد دارای تاثیرگذاری زیاد، 1357 مورد دارای تاثیرگذاری متوسط و 472 مورد دارای تاثیرگذاری کم و 49 مورد بی‌تاتیر ارزیابی شده‌اند. ارزیابی وضعیت اثرگذاری و اثرپذیری عوامل کلیدی نشان می‌دهد که ۳ پیشران ارائه داده‌های شفاف از مباحث فنی و اجرایی (P1)، پاسخگویی شوراها و تشریح برنامه‌ها و طرح‌های توسعه شهری (J1) و انتخاب و شایسته سالاری در انتخاب مدیران شهری (P6)، در رتبه نخست تأثیرگذاری مستقیم و غیرمستقیم و 3 پیشران درخواست مدیران شهری از شهروندان به منظور مشارکت در امور (L5)، رویکرد عدالت محوری مدیران شهری در مسائل گوناگون شهر (L6) و تاثیر شبکههای اجتماعی در مشارکت نهادهای مدنی، تعاونیها و بخش خصوصی (T1) در رتبه نخست اثرپذیری مستقیم و غیرمستقیم قرار گرفته‌اند. با توجه به قرابت سناریوها و مجموع 221 وضعیت حاکم بر صفحه سناریو تعداد 116 حالت و 52.48 درصد وضعیت مطلوب، تعداد 64 حالت و 28.95 درصد در حالت ایستا و تعداد 41 حالت و 18.55 درصد وضعیت بحرانی را نشان می‌دهد. هم‌چنین، از میان 14 سناریوی باورکردنی حکمروایی مطلوب، تعداد ۱۰ سناریو با وضعیت مطلوب وجود دارد.
This research investigated optimal urban governance in the metropolis of Rasht using a future-oriented approach. In this study, various dimensions of urban governance were evaluated, and key factors were identified and ranked. Initially, through the Delphi technique and by consulting 30 experts, the most important key factors of urban governance, as well as indicators of consensus, certainty, priority, and importance, were identified. Subsequently, 53 key drivers were selected for analysis using Micmac software. This research is applied and descriptive-analytical in terms of methodology, focusing on transparency and accountability in urban planning processes.Based on 2714 values calculated in the initial matrix of cross-effects, 836 items with high impact, 1357 items with medium impact, 472 items with low impact and 49 items with higher impact have been evaluated. Assessing the impact and effectiveness of key factors shows that the three drivers provide clear information on technical and executive issues (P1), accountability of councils and description of urban development plans (J1) and selection and merit in the selection of urban managers (P6), in The first rank of direct and indirect influence and 3 drivers is the request of city managers from citizens to participate in affairs (L5), the central justice approach of city managers in various city issues (L6) and the impact of social networks on the participation of civil and cooperative institutions. And the private sector (T1) rank first in direct and indirect impact. Considering the similarity of the scenarios and the total of 221 conditions on the scenario page, 116 states and 52.48% of the desired state, 64 states and 28.95% in the static state and 41 states and 18.55% of the critical state. Also, among the 14 believable scenarios favorable governance there are 10 scenarios with favorable status.
Extended Abstract
Introduction
Today's civilization has become more urbanized and urban growth has had adverse consequences on the bodies of cities. The dimensions of urban settlements are becoming more complex day by day and as a result, security instability is becoming more apparent in urban areas. In this regard, the administration of cities has also become a significant issue, and without a doubt, a successful urban management can move the city towards sustainable development and increase the welfare of the city's residents. What is considered and emphasized in city administration today and is introduced as a paradigm in city management is to use the model of good urban governance in which the government, citizens and private institutions participate in a horizontal and cross-sectoral flow. In fact, good urban governance is a different way in which individuals, institutions and the private and public sectors manage and plan for the common affairs of the city. Today, managers are looking for a model to reduce the management problems of cities. One of the models that has attracted the attention of experts in this direction is the model of good urban governance. In Iran, this model is known as a model that can be an ointment for the problems of cities. The Future studies is a new paradigm in the field of long-term planning that has emerged in recent decades to address unpredictable, complex, intertwined, and uncertain issues. Therefore, this study seeks to study the challenge of urban management based on important indicators of good urban governance based on a future studies approach so that the results of this study may serve as a guide for managers and planners of Rasht and similar cities. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to answer the following questions:
-Which components and driving forces play a key role in the good urban governance of metropolises?
-What are the intersections of the driving forces and the identification of the most impressionable and influential factors affecting the good urban governance in the future of metropolises?
-What are the possible, probable, and desirable scenarios for the future situation of good urban governance in Rasht metropolis?
Methodology
This research is practical in terms of purpose. Also, in terms of nature, it is based on new methods of future studies, analytical, and exploratory science, which has been done by using a combination of quantitative and qualitative models. It is also a method of collecting documentary and library information. Qualitative data were prepared with an open questionnaire through interviews and review of documents and quantitative data used in this study numerically and through the weight of Delphi questionnaires. The research method of the present study is mixed and is a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods of future studies approach based on exploratory analysis using Micmac software and cross-analysis using Scenario WIZARD software. It should also be noted that the statistical sample size using the available sampling method, 30 specialists with non-random method or purposive sampling has been determined, including faculty members, executive and administrative experts of Rasht metropolis and experts in the field of urban management.
Result and discussion
In terms of the matrix of influence and potential direct and indirect dependence, it can be said that the three drivers provide clear information on technical and executive issues (P1), accountability of councils and description of urban development plans (J1) and selection and merit in the selection of urban managers (P6), were ranked first in direct and indirect effectiveness. Also, three drivers are asking urban managers to participate in the affairs (L5), the central justice approach of urban managers in various city issues (L6) and the impact of social networks on the participation of civil society organizations, cooperatives, and the private sector (T1), were ranked first in direct and indirect impressionability. According to the findings, key driving forces will be available in terms of impressionability and effectiveness. In this regard, according to the 53 general variables studied, 53 key driving forces were also presented from the highest to the lowest importance, respectively. Based on this, the drivers of managers' awareness of current issues (1L1) and the use of experienced and specialized people in urban management (L3) were ranked last with the least direct effectiveness. And the drivers of using the good management approach (E5) and accountability of councils and description of urban development plans and projects (E6) were identified with the least direct impressionability.
Conclusion
Evaluating the effectiveness and impressionability of the method of distribution and dispersion of variables in the scatter plot shows the degree of stability and instability of the system. What is clear from the status of the distribution page of variables affecting the future status of Rasht urban management is the relatively unstable state of the system. Most variables are scattered around the diagonal axis of the sheet. Except for a few factors that indicate the high effects, all other variables are in a similar situation. According to the results, the factors of consensus (C), efficiency and effectiveness (E), participation (P), transparency (T), responsibility (R), legitimacy (L) and justice (J), affecting the process of unsustainable urban management developments of Rasht, respectively. And in such a way that the continuation of the current situation will lead to the formation of a catastrophic scenario and at best, if the current situation continues, the existing management system changes in parallel and there is no regular and coherent plan and lack of inter-organizational coordination, reducing the level of social empowerment. Failure to strengthen the local economy and reduce the participatory role of citizens will reduce the level of private sector investment and reduce physical oversight of built spaces. There are a total of 14 believable scenarios for the advancement of good governance in the Rasht metropolis, most of which are in desirable condition, which indicates a promising situation for the advancement of urban management. Out of 221 states on the scenario sheet, 116 states and 52.48% show the desired state, 64 states and 28.95% indicate the static state, and 41 states and 18.55% illustrate the critical state. These states demonstrate that more than half of the modes on the scenario sheet are in the desirable state, followed by the static state, and finally, the critical state.
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