شناسایی و بررسی مؤلفه‌های مؤثر بر توسعه شهرهای میانه اندام با رویکرد تحلیل تأثیرات متقاطع نمونه موردی: شهر خوی
محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی و پژوهشی پژوهش و برنامه ریزی شهریهادی حکیمی 1 , هادی نقیبی 2 , عادل شری زاده 3
1 - استادیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران.
2 - دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران.
3 - کارشناس ارشد جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران.
کلید واژه: شهرهای میانه اندام, شهر خوی, روش تحلیل تأثیرات متقاطع,
چکیده مقاله :
چکیده مقدمه: با بروز تحولات جدید در ایران، شهرهای بزرگ به سرعت عوامل مهم رشد و توسعه را به خود اختصاص داده و باعث ایجاد شکلی از نظام نامتعادل و نامتوازن در شبکه شهری کشور شدند. در این بین، تقویت شهرهای میانه اندام در سطوح گوناگون کالبدی- فیزیکی، اقتصادی و اجتماعی به عنوان یکی از مؤثرترین راهکارها در راستای به تعادل رساندن توزیع جمعیت و فعالیت‌های اقتصادی در سطح مناطق مطرح شد. روش: در این راستا هدف این پژوهش، شناسایی نیروهای تأثیرگذار و در نهایت عوامل کلیدی مؤثر بر رشد و توسعه شهر میانه اندام خوی می‌باشد. بدین منظور، برای شناسایی عوامل مؤثر بر وضعیت آینده سیستم از روش دلفی استفاده شد که در نتیجه آن 30 عامل اولیه مؤثر بر روند آینده سیستم شناسایی شدند. در ادامه برای استخراج عوامل کلیدی تأثیرگذار بر وضعیت آینده سیستم، روش تحلیل تأثیرات متقاطع با بهره‌گیری از نرم‌افزار MICMAC به کار گرفته شد. یافتهها: نتایج تحقیق حاکی از آن است که سیستم مورد مطالعه، سیستمی ناپایدار بوده و در صفحه پراکنش متغیرها، پنج دسته از عوامل (عوامل تأثیرگذار، دووجهی، مستقل، تأثیرپذیر و تنظیمی) قابل شناسایی هستند، در نهایت نرم‌افزار MICMAC از مجموع 30 عامل اولیه، 11 عامل را به عنوان عوامل کلیدی مورد شناسایی قرار داد. نتیجهگیری: این عوامل در واقع به عنوان بازیگران اصلی در توسعه شهر خوی ایفای نقش می‌کنند. با در نظر گرفتن این عوامل در برنامه‌ریزی‌ها و سیاست‌گذاری‌های شهری، می‌توان شاهد روندی مثبت و محسوس در توسعه شهر خوی در سطح استان بود.
With the new developments in Iran, big cities quickly took over the growth and development factors and created a form of unbalanced system in the country's urban network. Meanwhile, strengthening middle-class cities at various levels of physical, economic and social was proposed as one of the most effective strategies to balance the distribution of population and economic activities in the regions. In this regard, the aim of this study is to identify the influential forces and ultimately the key factors affecting the growth and development of the central city of Khoy. In order to do this, Delphi technique was used for identifying the effective factors on the future condition of the system the result of which showed 30 initial effective factors on the future condition of the system were identified. In the next step, for extracting the key factors effective on the future procedure of the system, Cross Impact Analysis method was used by software Micmac. The results of the study show that the studied system is and unstable one and in the table of variables spread; five classes of factors (effective, Twosided, independent, influential and regulatory) can be identified. Finally, out of the 30 factors, 11 are the key factors for the main actors and affect the future status of the system. These factors actually play role as main players in the development of Khoy city. Given these factors in urban planning and policy making, one can witness a positive and tangible trend in the development of Khoy city at the provincial level.
Nowadays, the world is at the bridge of significant developments and changes for which no match can be found in the history of mankind. It is a thorough revolution which has dominated all the fields and aspects of human life and will make a great gap between past and the future. There is no doubt that the world in the future will be the ground for developments and inconstancies and only those will be able to cope with different events who deal with changes in an active and preemptive way and even are the reason and agents of desirable changes. Here, the science of future studies, with an intelligent management of the future, has the ability to manage in a dynamic, inconstant, and unexpected environment and can pave the way for creating and architecting a desirable future by using modern managerial principles. It can be said that future-studies deals with change management. This major, with its prospective, traditional planning, based on forecasting, challenges trends and designs beneficial guidelines and policies for mid-term and long-term periods in order to achieve a desirable future by using its comprehensive and systematic approach. Regional development through the growth of functional diversity of habitat and establish a strong relationship between them starts. Same basis of relationships and functional roles of settlements, settlement hierarchy is required in order to get the right pattern. With regard to the actual and potential role of central cities in regional development and it also accounts for a major share of its urban settlements, urban development, such as one of the ways to achieve a balanced network, more attention has been on the settlement.
:Methodology
this study is applied-developmental and in terms of nature, it is descriptive-analytical.In order to do this, Delphi technique was used for identifying the effective factors on the future condition of the system the result of which showed 30 initial effective factors on the future condition of the system were identified. In the next step, for extracting the key factors effective on the future procedure of the system, Cross Impact Analysis method was used by software Micmac. The methods used in this study include: Delphi technique (for identifying effective factors on the future of the system), Cross Impact Analysis method (for identifying the effective key factors on the future condition of the system). The statistic society in this study was the experts and specialists of urban field and also the location of the study is khoy city.
Results and discussion:
This study, by using Cross Impact Analysis Approach studies discusses the effective Components Affecting the Development of Medium-Sized City khoy. The goal of this study is to identify the key factors effective on the future condition of Components Affecting the Development of Medium-Sized City khoy. In order to do this, Delphi technique was used for identifying the effective factors on the future condition of the system the result of which showed 30 initial effective factors on the future condition of the system were identified. In the next step, for extracting the key factors effective on the future procedure of the system, Cross Impact Analysis method was used by software Micmac. The results of the study show that the studied system is and unstable one and in the table of variables spread; five classes of factors (effective, Twosided, independent, influential and regulatory) can be identified. Finally, . The structural analysis method was used with the help of MicMac software to extract key factors, where 11 factors were selected as key factors. These factors actually play role as main players in the development of Khoy city. Given these factors in urban planning and policy making, one can witness a positive and tangible trend in the development of Khoy city at the provincial level.
Conclusion:
Studying the future and planning for it is an inseparable part of the process of planning. In most cases, studying future, with emphasis on predicting and analyzing methods, has made innumerable problems in conducting different programs. These problems often arise from inattention to political, social, economic, and cultural effects and also an indifference to the novel or developing technologies in human’s life, or they could be because of neglecting the leading forces and key factors affecting the facilitation of the resolution of future problems. Nowadays, the world is at the bridge of significant developments and changes for which no match can be found in the history of mankind. It is a thorough revolution which has dominated all the fields and aspects of human life and will make a great gap between past and the future. There is no doubt that the world in the future will be the ground for developments and inconstancies and only those will be able to cope with different events who deal with changes in an active and preemptive way and even are the reason and agents of desirable changes. Here, the science of future studies, with an intelligent management of the future, has the ability to manage in a dynamic, inconstant, and unexpected environment and can pave the way for creating and architecting a desirable future by using modern managerial principles. It can be said that future-studies deals with change management. This major, with its prospective, traditional planning, based on forecasting, challenges trends and designs beneficial guidelines and policies for mid-term and long-term periods in order to achieve a desirable future by using its comprehensive and systematic approach.
An important feature of developing countries is the strong concentration of resources and populations in large cities and the spatial and geographical imbalances at the territorial level. In discussing decentralization of these cities, one of the basic issues is the need to look at the middle sections of the hierarchy of settlements, which in the meantime, Meanwhile, strengthening middle-class cities at various levels of physical, economic and social was proposed as one of the most effective strategies to balance the distribution of population and economic activities in the regions With the growth and development of these cities, one can see a form of balanced urban system.
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