بررسی تاثیر شاخص بی‌نوایی و نااطمینانی تورمی بر امید به زندگی و مرگ و میر کودکان زیر پنج‌سال در ایران
محورهای موضوعی : -مدارک پزشکیرویا آل عمران 1 , سید علی آل عمران 2
1 - دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، واحد تبریز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تبریز، ایران
2 - دکتری اقتصاد، گروه توسعه اقتصادی و برنامه‌ریزی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران
کلید واژه: نااطمینانی تورمی, امید به زندگی, مرگ و میر کودکان زیر پنج‌سال, شاخص بی‌نوایی,
چکیده مقاله :
مقدمه: با توجه به اهمیت امید به زندگی و مرگ و میر کودکان به‌عنوان شاخص‌های سلامت جامعه و هم‌چنین اهمیت متغیرهای شاخص بی‌نوایی (به‌عنوان مقیاسی برای فقدان عمومی رفاه اقتصادی یک کشور) و نااطمینانی تورمی، پژوهش حاضر درصدد بررسی تاثیر شاخص بی‌نوایی و نااطمینانی تورمی بر امید به زندگی و مرگ و میر کودکان زیر پنج‌سال در ایران است. روش پژوهش: روش به‌کار برده شده در پژوهش حاضر، از نوع علی - تحلیلی بوده و هدف پژوهش کاربردی می‌باشد. آمار و داده‌های مربوط به متغیرهای به کاربرده شده در پژوهش نیز از بانک اطلاعات سری‌های زمانی اقتصادی بانک مرکزی ایران و لوح فشرده‌ی شاخص‌های توسعه‌ی جهان استخراج شده است. ابزارهای اقتصادسنجی مورد استفاده در پژوهش، نرم‌افزارهای Eviews و Microfit و روش اقتصادسنجی به کار برده شده در پژوهش، روش گارچ و هم‌چنین روش خود توضیح با وقفه‌های گسترده بوده و دامنه‌ی زمانی پژوهش فاصله زمانی فصل اول سال 1375 تا فصل چهارم سال 1397 و قلمرو مکانی پژوهش نیز کشور ایران است. هم‌چنین سطح معنی‌داری نیز، 5 درصد می‌باشد. یافته‌ها: بر اساس یافته‌های پژوهش، در بلندمدت، یک واحد افزایش در شاخص بی‌نوایی و نااطمینانی تورمی به ترتیب باعث کاهش 0/07 واحد و 21/30 واحد در امید به زندگی شده و هم‌چنین یک واحد افزایش در شاخص بی‌نوایی و نااطمینانی تورمی به ترتیب باعث افزایش 0/20 واحد و 43/01 واحد در مرگ و میر کودکان زیر پنج‌سال می‌شود. نتیجه‌گیری: با توجه به نتایج به دست آمده از پژوهش، پیشنهاد می‌شود که سیاست‌گذاران اقتصادی از طریق اعمال سیاست‌های اقتصادی مناسب در جهت کاهش شاخص بی‌نوایی و نااطمینانی تورمی، گامی موثر در جهت افزایش سلامت در جامعه بردارند.
Introduction: Given the importance of life expectancy and child mortality as indicators of society health and also the importance of misery index and inflation uncertainty, the present study aimed to assess the impact of misery index and inflation uncertainty on life expectancy and child mortality under five in Iran. Methods: This research method is an analysis-causal and its target is application and statistics and data about the variables used in this study are extracted from economic time series database of Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran and World Development Indicators. Also, Econometric tools used in research are Eviews and Microfit Softwares and the econometric methods are GARCH and ARDL methods over the period of first quarter of 1996 to fourth quarter of 2018 for country of Iran. The level of significant is 5 percent. Results: According to research findings, in the long run, one unit increase in each of the variables of misery index and inflation uncertainty decrease life expectancy by 0.07 and 21.30 unit respectively. Also, one unit increase in each of the variables of misery index and inflation uncertainty increase child mortality under five by 0.20 and 43.01 unit respectively. Conclusion: given the results of study, it is recommended that policy makers with the use of proper economic policies to reduce the misery index and inflation uncertainty, take a step toward improving health in the society.
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2- Rabiei M, Heydari S, Shariat Bahadori M, Kani S. Impact of Health Indicators on Economic Growth: A Case Study of Developed and Developing Countries. Economic Journal, 2013; 13(7,8): 73-88. [In Persian]
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6- Monsef A, Shahmohammadi Mehrjardi A. Economic Factors and Life Expectancy in 136 Countries During 2002 to 2010. Journal of the Iranian Institute for Health Sciences Research, 2017; 16(5): 567-574. [In Persian]
7- Panahi H, Aleemran S.A. The Effect of Inflation, Health Expenditure and Urbanization on Life Expectancy in the Middle East and North Africa Countries (MENA). Journal of the Iranian Institute for Health Sciences Research, 2016; 15(4): 346-351. [In Persian]
8- Panahi H, Aleemran S.A. Study of the Causality between Unemployment and Health. Iran Occupational Health Journal, 2016; 13(3): 81-89. [In Persian]
9- Shahbaz M, Loganathan N, Mujahid N, Ali A, Nawaz A. Determinants of Life Expectancy and its Prospects Under the Role of Economic Misery: A Case of Pakistan. MPRA Paper, 2015; No: 67167.
10- Laditka J.N, Laditka S.B. Unemployment, Disability and Life Expectancy in the United States: A Life Course Study. Disability and Health Journal, 2016; 9(1): 46-53.
11- Sede P, Ohemeng W. Socio-Economic Determinants of Life Expectancy in Nigeria (1980-2011). Health Economics Review, 2015; 5(2): 1-11.
12- Ali A, Ahmad KH. The Impact of Socio-Economic Factors on Life Expectancy in Sultanate of Oman: An Empirical Analysis. Middle East Journal of Scientific Research, 2014; 22(2): 218-224.
13- Lee HH, Lee SA, Lim JY, Park CY. Effects of Food Price Inflation on Infant and Child Mortality in Developing Countries. The European Journal of Health Economics, 2016; 17(5): 535-551.
14- Nguyen H, Nguyen H. Unemployment and Mortality: Evidence from the Great Recession. Policy Research Working Paper; 2016: 7603.
15- Halliday T.J. Unemployment and Mortality: Evidence from the PSID. Social Science & Medicine, 2014; 113: 15-22.
16- Dahmardeh N, Safdari M, Pourshahabi F. Modeling of Iran Economy Inflation Uncertainty. Quarterly Journal of Economic Research and Policies, 2009; 17(50): 77-92. [In Persian]
17- Noferesti M. Unit Root and Co-integration in Econometrics. 2st Edition, Rasa Cultural Services Institute: Tehran; 2008. [In Persian]
_||_1- Makian S.N, Taherpour E, Zangiabadi P. Health Expenditure and Life Expectancy in Islamic Countries. Quarterly Journal of the Macro and Strategic Policies, 2016; 4(13): 25-40. [In Persian]
2- Rabiei M, Heydari S, Shariat Bahadori M, Kani S. Impact of Health Indicators on Economic Growth: A Case Study of Developed and Developing Countries. Economic Journal, 2013; 13(7,8): 73-88. [In Persian]
3- Rezaei H, Alizadeh M, Nademi Y. Examining the Spatial Spillover Effects of Misery Index on Health Care Expenditure in Selected Developing Countries. Journal of Healthcare Management, 2017; 8(1): 57-68. [In Persian]
4- Shahabadi A, Ghorbani Golparvar M. Impact of Misery Index on Health Spending in Iran. Quarterly Journal of Economical Modeling, 2016; 10(1): 133-157. [In Persian]
5- Jannati A, Gholamyari A. The Impact of Infaltion Uncertainty on Iran Economic Growth (Markov Switching Model). Economic Development Research, 2013; 3(11): 93-110. [In Persian]
6- Monsef A, Shahmohammadi Mehrjardi A. Economic Factors and Life Expectancy in 136 Countries During 2002 to 2010. Journal of the Iranian Institute for Health Sciences Research, 2017; 16(5): 567-574. [In Persian]
7- Panahi H, Aleemran S.A. The Effect of Inflation, Health Expenditure and Urbanization on Life Expectancy in the Middle East and North Africa Countries (MENA). Journal of the Iranian Institute for Health Sciences Research, 2016; 15(4): 346-351. [In Persian]
8- Panahi H, Aleemran S.A. Study of the Causality between Unemployment and Health. Iran Occupational Health Journal, 2016; 13(3): 81-89. [In Persian]
9- Shahbaz M, Loganathan N, Mujahid N, Ali A, Nawaz A. Determinants of Life Expectancy and its Prospects Under the Role of Economic Misery: A Case of Pakistan. MPRA Paper, 2015; No: 67167.
10- Laditka J.N, Laditka S.B. Unemployment, Disability and Life Expectancy in the United States: A Life Course Study. Disability and Health Journal, 2016; 9(1): 46-53.
11- Sede P, Ohemeng W. Socio-Economic Determinants of Life Expectancy in Nigeria (1980-2011). Health Economics Review, 2015; 5(2): 1-11.
12- Ali A, Ahmad KH. The Impact of Socio-Economic Factors on Life Expectancy in Sultanate of Oman: An Empirical Analysis. Middle East Journal of Scientific Research, 2014; 22(2): 218-224.
13- Lee HH, Lee SA, Lim JY, Park CY. Effects of Food Price Inflation on Infant and Child Mortality in Developing Countries. The European Journal of Health Economics, 2016; 17(5): 535-551.
14- Nguyen H, Nguyen H. Unemployment and Mortality: Evidence from the Great Recession. Policy Research Working Paper; 2016: 7603.
15- Halliday T.J. Unemployment and Mortality: Evidence from the PSID. Social Science & Medicine, 2014; 113: 15-22.
16- Dahmardeh N, Safdari M, Pourshahabi F. Modeling of Iran Economy Inflation Uncertainty. Quarterly Journal of Economic Research and Policies, 2009; 17(50): 77-92. [In Persian]
17- Noferesti M. Unit Root and Co-integration in Econometrics. 2st Edition, Rasa Cultural Services Institute: Tehran; 2008. [In Persian]