Learning Identification Strategies for Traffic Flow Model: A Review Study
محورهای موضوعی : مجله فناوری اطلاعات در طراحی مهندسیمحبوبه زارع فیض آبادی 1 , سید عابد حسینی 2 , محبوبه هوشمند 3
1 - گروه مهندسی برق، واحد مشهد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، مشهد، ایران.
2 - گروه مهندسی برق، واحد مشهد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، مشهد، ایران.
3 - گروه مهندسی کامپیوتر، واحد مشهد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، مشهد، ایران
کلید واژه: Traffic flow model prediction, ARIMA model, Hybrid model, Deep learning, Nonlinear macroscopic traffic model.,
چکیده مقاله :
ترافیک سفر و نتایج آن که شامل آلودگی هوا و اوضاع نابسامان اقتصادی می شود از جمله عواملی است که توسعه شهرهای سالم و پایدار را محدود می کند. پارامترهای مدل جریان ترافیک برای مدیریت شبکه راه های شهری مهم هستند. یادگیری استراتژی شناسایی باید به گونه ای باشد که در مدل سازی شبکه ترافیک موارد سادگی، دقت و اعتبار مدل را تضمین کند. در این مقاله روشهای مختلف شناسایی سیستم جریان ترافیک از جمله مدلسازی جریان ترافیک و پیشبینی آن در مقالات مختلف بررسی و تحلیل میشود. در انتها مزایا و معایب روش های مختلف در این حوزه دسته بندی می شوند.
Travel traffic and its results, which include air pollution and the chaotic economic situation, are among the factors that limit the development of healthy and sustainable cities. Traffic flow model parameters are important for urban road network management. Learning the identification strategy should be such that the modeling of the traffic network guarantees the simplicity, accuracy, and validation of the model. In this paper, different methods of traffic flow system identification, including traffic flow modeling and its prediction, are reviewed and analyzed in articles. At the end, the advantages and disadvantages of different methods in this field are categ orized.
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1- Introduction
Today, the high increase in vehicles has caused severe traffic problems, which makes people's trips difficult [1]. Fortunately, the progress and development of new technologies have given researchers the possibility of more research to reduce the problems of traffic complications by implementing effective and practical algorithms [2]. To address this issue, intelligent transportation systems (ITS) [3] have been extensively researched over the years and have proven to be an effective approach for enhancing the efficiency of urban transportation. Reducing traffic congestion is possible with advanced traffic signal control strategies [4]. Dynamic traffic route planning and control with short-term traffic forecasting models is known as an important application in the ITS traffic network [5], signal optimization [6], and real-time traffic management [7]. Better use of public transportation is one of the benefits of more accurate urban traffic forecasting [8]. Forecasting the traffic flow (TF) in the future moments in a specific traffic area based on the past TF of that area is one of the goals of traffic control [9]. Integrated moving traffic forecasting and linear regression (LR) models performed a temporal analysis of TFs [10].
Recently, neural networks (NNs) have demonstrated remarkable effectiveness in traffic forecasting tasks due to their exceptional skills in pattern recognition and data handling [9]. NN-based traffic forecasting models that can analyze hidden temporal patterns in traffic data include recurrent NN (RNN), gated recurrent uni (GRU), and long-short-term memory (LSTM) [11-13]. Convolutional NN (CNN) and graph convolutional network (GCN) are typical examples of these methods [14-16]. Due to the ability to analyze graph structure, graph NNs (GNN) can be used in various applications of intelligent transportation networks [2]. A new method for combining two-dimensional (2D) time series patterns is proposed by formulating an intra-day ordered square matrix that expands in both intra-day and inter-day dimensions, and then convolution and maximum integration are used to extract information [17]. The post-processing of the machine algorithm (ML) residuals is done completely and independently by a new approach to the traffic prediction model. It combines an ML algorithm with a basic statistical time series model. A basic NN model is combined with an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) called NN-ARIMA [18]. The TF prediction model is based on the multifaceted deep learning (DL) theory [19]. Some TF forecasting problems have been solved by presenting an adaptive multifaceted DL model based on CNN and GRU.
Since TFs are affected by temporal and spatial conditions, researchers are trying to expand spatial-temporal methods [9]. It is usually difficult to analyze the distinct influence degrees without manual training. Real traffic conditions do not proceed like this, decreasing forecast accuracy. The spatial-temporal TF forecasting model named LSTM is described in [9] to improve the previous problems. A completely new traffic forecasting model for short-term TFs with time series analysis and an improved LSTM is presented in [20]. The improved LSTM combines the traditional LSTM with the bidirectional LSTM (Bi-LSTM). One of the advantages of LSTM is its impact on the processing of longer time series data. As a result, the processing and prediction of TF data are obtained on a larger scale. A DL hybrid model is also presented in [21] to predict short-term TF. An optimization method for abnormal network traffic detection based on semi-supervised double deep Q-network (SSDDQN) is proposed in [22], which is based on the representative algorithm of DDQN [23] in deep reinforcement learning (DRL). This method, with the combination of two unsupervised learning algorithms, autoencoder (AE) [24] and K-means [25], is implemented. Deep NN is used to improve traffic engineering in an application-oriented scenario where dynamic flow information of a real-world campus network is predicted [26].
Currently, the quality and accuracy of the model are important in TF prediction control strategies [27]. Various qualitative and quantitative indicators are used in specific time and place conditions to determine the traffic congestion situation [28]. In [29], an estimation of the traffic situation is presented online using the Bayesian framework, particle filter techniques, and first-order macroscopically. The benefits of combining the effect of rain in predicting the traffic situation have been seen experimentally. The technology of using artificial intelligence (AI) in vehicles to increase the accuracy of estimating and predicting TF is presented in [30]. With the development of technology and the use of vast TF data [31, 32], ML methods [33, 34] and DL [35] have been used To identify the traffic situation and achieve excellent results [36]. Selective ensemble learning (SEL), which is dedicated to identifying the TF situation on a highway, using experiments to verify the performance. Real-time and accurate highway traffic conditions are accessible through research documentation for planning purposes. Also, the reduction of model storage overheads will result from this approach [28].
Mathematical relationships between three important factors, including vehicle speed, density, and TF, make a macroscopic model based on hydrodynamic theory, which is the TF control model [37]. For example, solving the parameter estimation problem of the TF model macroscopically has been used in [38]. Due to the randomness of the TF system in reality, the Monte Carlo method has been implemented to generalize the random variable [39]. To estimate the parameters of a highway's rotation ratio, saturation flow, and free flow speed, a combination of random approximation, online self-approximation, and expectation-maximization algorithms have been used [40, 41].
The remainder of this paper is structured as follows: Section 2 introduces different methods of traffic model estimation to predict future TF based on previous data, including time series models, traffic prediction methods based on AI, and hybrid models. Section 3 explains learning network traffic detection models. Section 4 analyzes each method's advantages and disadvantages and suggests improving the quality of future works.
2- TF model prediction methods
Many methods for predicting macroscopic traffic situations have been proposed in the last three decades. These methods are related to different fields of statistics, control theory, AI, applied mathematics, etc. The classification of these methods in terms of literature is done differently [42]. This section briefly and generally discusses the three main types of research studies based on different methods of predicting the TF of the traffic network.
2-1- Statistical and mathematical time series model
In the preliminary studies, researchers have used methods based on statistics and mathematics to predict TF [43, 44]. The time series model is used for prediction based on the collected TF data. In the literature, several methods use time series models (e.g., ARIMA [45] and Kalman filter [46]) to evaluate TF in each route. Autoregressive (AR), autoregressive moving-average (ARMA), and ARIMA methods are among the primary models for predicting TF that work based on the assumption of fixed traffic data [47-49]. By developing univariate and multivariate ARIMA models in real-time and checking their results, better performance of the multivariate method has been achieved [50]. Considering that the temporal analysis of these models is performed on long-term traffic data, they can be tested for routes with little traffic and do not apply to complex traffic conditions [9]. Most of these statistical and mathematical models are based on ideal traffic conditions and do not apply to real and complex TF conditions [51, 52]. In addition, some researchers have used the combination of spatial information in predicting TF [53, 54]. However, using these traditional methods has resulted in not using the real spatial-temporal characteristics of the complex traffic network [55].
2-1-1- ARIMA model
ARIMA is a linear and univariate model. The widespread use of this method in urban areas shows its lack of accuracy in considering the non-linear characteristics of TF time series. However, ARIMAs' advantages include their simple mathematical form and high capacity to clearly identify temporal correlation in TF time series. The mathematical form of ARIMA can be written as Equation (1) [56].
| (1) |
| (2) |
(3) |
|
| (4) |
| (5) |
| (6) |
| (7) |
| (8) |
| (9) |
Ref. | Method | Advantages | Disadvantages |
[50] [51] [52] | ARIMA | · Better performance of the multivariate model | · Not deal with complex models |
[19] [21] | CNN | · Good image processing performance · Good for time series analysis · Utilized to extract spatial features | · Not capture the complex characteristics of TF |
[93] | RNN | · Popular for handling sequence tasks | · Limited range of available background information |
[21] [9] | LSTM | · Capable of processing sequence learning tasks · Applied to extract temporal feature · The most efficient, widely used, and representative mechanism | · Not capture the complex characteristics of TF · Long-term dependence |
[93] [21] | Bi-LSTM | · Used to extract periodic features · Capture time dependence · Make full use of the forward and backward information | · Failure to use complex and dynamic features of TF |
[21] | Conv-LSTM | · Extract the spatial-temporal feature of TF | · Need to improve forecast accuracy in daily and weekly periodic features |
[93] | VMD | · Smooth the original non-linear historical TF data | · Necessity of combination with LSTM model to predict traffic flow data |
[9] | GCN | · Deal with graph-structured data | · Not able to change dynamically |
[22] | SSDDQN | · Good results in abnormal traffic detection · Good accuracy · Low training time · Low prediction time |
· Limit optimization effect |
[27] | Non-linear macroscopic TF model | · Describe more accurately the actual performance of TF · Convergence of the algorithm · Improve road traffic efficiency | · Does not consider the phenomenon of episodic congestion
|
For future work, the proposed method Conv-LSTM is a suitable option for predicting traffic data, considering the extent of spatial-temporal properties in traffic data and improving the accuracy of daily and weekly forecasts. In addition, the diagnostic model SSDDQN will be met by applying a non-linear macroscopic model and considering episodic densities and traffic network goals, including accuracy, high productivity, and reduction of training and prediction time.
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