مطالعه و تحلیل متغیرهای جمعیتی تأثیر گذار بر نسبت پشتیبانی در صندوق بازنشستگی تأمین اجتماعی ایران با استفاده از پویایی‌های سیستم
محورهای موضوعی :
مدیریت صنعتی
zahra karimian sichani
1
,
mohammad hassan cheraghali
2
,
ali dehghani
3
1 - Head of Statistics and Information Technology Department of Insurance Deputy - Social Security Organization
2 - Assistant Prof., Faculty of Management, Islamic Azad University, South Tehran Branch, Tehran, Iran
3 - Assistant Prof., Faculty of Economics and Accounting, Islamic Azad University, South Tehran Branch
تاریخ دریافت : 1399/08/23
تاریخ پذیرش : 1400/03/01
تاریخ انتشار : 1400/05/31
کلید واژه:
متغیرهای جمعیتی,
نسبت پشتیبانی,
صندوق بازنشستگی,
پویایی های سیستم,
چکیده مقاله :
ارزیابی و اصلاح سیستمهای بازنشستگی از جمله مسائل پیچیده‌ای میباشند که به دلیل تعدد متغیرهای تاثیرگذار و تغییر متغیرها در افقهای زمانی بلندمدت، نمیتوان آنها را به سادگی بررسی و تحلیل نمود. هدف این مقاله مطالعه و تحلیل متغیرهای جمعیتی بر نسبت پشتیبانی (تعداد بیمه شدگان بر تعداد مستمری بگیران) در سازمان تأمین اجتماعی است. این نسبت تا حدودی نسبت ورودی به خروجی صندوق را نمایش داده و بر اساس آن میتوان با توجه به میزان حق بیمه های جاری و مبالغ مستمری فشار موجود بر صندوق را تخمین زد. در این مقاله با استفاده از اطلاعات و آمارهای سازمان مذکور و مرکز آمار ایران در سالهای 98-95، مدلی بر پایه پویایی های سیستم طراحی و بعد از تست و اعتبارسنجی مدل، سیاستهای مختلف بررسی و تحلیل گردیدند. یافته ها نشان می دهند تا سال 1412 جمعیت سالمند کشور دو برابر و جمعیت سن کار 12درصد رشد خواهد داشت. همچنین نسبت پشتیبانی صندوق ظرف همان مدت به عدد 2.19 خواهد رسید. مشارکت مشاغل غیر رسمی، اشتغال جوانان، مشارکت اقتصادی زنان و نرخ باروری مهمترین متغیرهای تاثیرگذار جمعیتی می باشند که با اعمال سیاستها و برنامه ریزی های مناسب میتوانند میزان نسبت پشتیبانی را به ترتیب به میزان 3، 1/2 ، 1/4 و 0/5 واحد افزایش دهند.
چکیده انگلیسی:
Evaluation and reform of pension systems are among the complex issues that due to the multiplicity of variables affecting each other and significant changes in the variables in the long term horizons, they can not be easily studied and analyzed. The purpose of this article is to study and analyze demographic variables on the support ratio(Ratio of insured to pensioners ) in Iran’s Social Security Pension Fund. This shows to some extent the ratio of input to output of the fund, and based on it, the pressure on the fund can be estimated according to the amount of current insurance premiums and pension amounts. In this article, using information and statistics of mentioned fund and Iran Statistics Center in the years from 2016 to 2018, a model based on system dynamics was designed and By testing the model under certain conditions, reproducing past behavior and examining different policies, the model was validated. By 2033, the country's elderly population will double, while the working age population will grow by nearly 12 percent. These changes will affect the demographic structure, Also, according to the forecast, if the current conditions are maintained, the support ratio of the Social Security Fund will reach 2.19 by 2033. Informal (non-salaried) job participation, unemployed youth employment, women's economic participation and fertility rate are the most important influential population variables that can increase the support ratio to 3, 1/2, 1/4 0/5 units respectively ،if appropriate policies and planning are implemented.
منابع و مأخذ:
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Roghanizadeh, M. (2006). Mathematical analysis of the Iranian’s pension funds situation. Sahfi Publications.
Shao, W., Hao, Y., Chen, K., Liu, B. (2013). Study on china's pension gap based on system dynamics. International journal of engineering and industries, 4(4), 27.
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Alonso García, J., & Rosado Cebrianc, B. (2019). Financial crisis and pension reform in Spain: the effect of labour market dynamics. Journal of Economic Policy Reform, 0(0), 1-18.
Dumitrescu, A. L. (2019). Challenges and opportunities of the EU migration Policy. Global Economic Observer, 7(1), 168-178.
Farahzadi, Sh., & Rahmati, M. H. (2017). Female labor participation in Iran: A Structural Model Estimation. Forthcoming Journal of Economic Studies, 47(1), 1–19.
Finke, R., & Sabatini, M. (2016), 2016 Pension Sustainability Index, In Finke, R.Allianz International Pension Papers, Munich. https://www.fiapinternacional.org/wp-content /uploads/2016/10/Pension-Sustainability-Index-2016.pdf
Iran Statistics Center. (2018). Public Census of Population and housing of Iran in 2016. Tehran, Available from www.amar.org.ir
Khorsandi, M., & Afsari, A. (2016). The Effect of birth rate on the stability of the pension system in format of Two-Period overlapping generations: The Case of Iran. Iranian Journal of Economic Research, 22(71), 188-157.
Kudrna, G., Tran, CH., & Woodland, A. (2019). Facing Demographic Challenges: Pension Cuts or Tax Hikes? Macroeconomic Dynamics, 23(2), 625-673.
Lychkina N.N., Morozova Y.A. (2014) Dynamic simulation of Pension system development processes. Proceedings of the 32nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. 20–24 July 2014, Delft, Netherlands. Available at: http://www.systemdynamics .org/conferences/2014/proceed/papers/P1180.pdf (accessed 01 February 2016).
Mehri, N., Messkoub, M. & Kunkel, S. (2019). Trends, determinants and the implications of population aging in Iran. Ageing International, 45,327-343.
Miri, N., Maddah, M., Raghfar, H. (2019). Aging and economic growth. Iranian aging Journal of ageing, 13(5), 626-637.
Moshfegh, M., & Hosseini, Gh. (2012). Future study of demographic changes in Iran during the period 2011 to 2041. Quarterly Journal of Socio-Cultural cognition, 1(13), 21-42.
Moshfegh, M. (2019). Elderly population of Iran until 1405. Tehran: Saba Pension Strategies Institute.
Pietron, R. (2018). Pension system dynamics modeling policy design and risk analysis[Paper presentation]. In Chybalski, F., & Marcinkiewicz, E. Proceedings PenCon 2018 Pensions Conference. Contemporary problems of intergenerational relations and pension systems: a theoretical and empirical perspective, Poland (PP.76-86). Lodz University of Technology.
Roghanizadeh, M. (2006). Mathematical analysis of the Iranian’s pension funds situation. Sahfi Publications.
Shao, W., Hao, Y., Chen, K., Liu, B. (2013). Study on china's pension gap based on system dynamics. International journal of engineering and industries, 4(4), 27.
Statistics and Accounting of Social and Economic Office. (2019). Selected statistics of 2018[yearbook]. Tehran: Social Security Organization. https://www.tamin.ir.
Statistics and Demographic Information and Immigration Office. (2016). demographic statistics [yearbook]. National Organization for Civil Registration.
Statistics and Strategic Information Center. (2019). Statistics of the ministry of cooperatives Labor and Social Welfare 2018. Ministry of Cooperatives Labor and Social Welfare. http://www.amarkar.ir/
Statistics, Information Technology and Insurance Computing Office. (2019). demographic statistics of 2018[yearbook]. Social Insurance Fund for Farmers, Villagers and Nomads.
Sterman, J. D. (2000). Business dynamics, system thinking and modeling for a complex world. Irwin, McGraw-Hill.
Systems Planning and Development Office. (2016). Statistical report of the Civil Servants Pension Organization. Civil Servants Pension Organization. https://www.cspf.ir/
Verejan, O., Bradu, M., Hirbu, E., Tacu, M., Verejan, V. (2018). Indicators of analysis and monitoring: A Public pension system. International Journal of Advances in Management, Economics and Entrepreneurship. 05(04), 117-144.
World Bank. (2017). Iran Economic Monitor: Oil-Driven Recovery, special focus on iran’s pension system:the need for reform. Washington, DC. © World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/27556 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
