ارائه مدلی جهت ارزیابی ریسک پروژه هایEPC در صنعت پتروشیمی مبتنی بر تکنیک‌های FMEA و ANP
محورهای موضوعی :
مدیریت صنعتی
Fatemeh Mahdian moqari
1
,
naser safaei
2
,
mohammad javad Ershadi
3
1 - MSc Student of Industrial Engineering, Industrial Management and Productivity Management, Islamic Azad University, Tehran Branch, Tehran, Iran
2 - Industrial Engineering Department, Khaje Nasir Al-Din Toosi University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
3 - Information Technology Department, Iranian Research Institute for Information Science and Technology (IRANDOC), Tehran, Iran
تاریخ دریافت : 1398/09/12
تاریخ پذیرش : 1398/11/21
تاریخ انتشار : 1399/03/11
کلید واژه:
ارزیابی ریسک,
پروژه هایEPC,
تکنیکFMEAوANP,
چکیده مقاله :
امروزه ریسک یکی از مهم‌ترین جنبه‌ها در مدیریت پروژه‌های مهندسی، تدارکات و ساخت (EPC) به‌حساب می‌آید. از سوی دیگر با توجه به تعداد و تنوع ریسکها در پروژه‌های EPC، تعیین وزن و رتبه‌بندی آنها از اهمیت وِیژه‌ای برخوردار است. همچنین ارتباط و اثرگذاری میان ریسکها در بسیاری از پژوهشهای این حوزه تاکنون در نظر گرفته نشده است. پژوهش حاضر به ارزیابی و تعیین ضریب اهمیت ریسکها به کمک روشهای تجزیه تحلیل حالات بالقوه خرابی (FMEA) و فرآیند تحلیل شبکه (ANP) می‌پردازد. بعنوان مورد کاوی صنعت پتروشیمی به دلیل وجود حجم عظیمی از سازه‌ها، تأسیسات و فرآیندها با ریسکها و خطرات اجتناب ناپذیر انتخاب شده است. خبرگان این پژوهش که مرجع اصلی داده‌ها شمرده می‌شوند شامل کارشناسان واحد آموزش و امور قراردادها (پیمان‌های مدیریت طرح‌ها) هستند. ریسک های بحرانی به دست آمده با استفاده از روش تحلیل فرآیند شبکه ای (ANP)، به کمک نرم‌افزار سوپردسیژن وزن‌دهی و رتبه‌بندی شده‌اند. براساس نتایج پژوهش، ریسک های بخش برآورد قرارداد کمترین اهمیت و ریسک های بخش مهندسی بیشترین اهمیت را داشته اند. همچنین نتایج این پژوهش نشان داد، ریسک های بخش تدارکات، ریسک های موجود در برآورد (مقادیر و بها) قرارداد، ریسک های بخش مالی و در نهایت ریسک‌های بخش مهندسی (طراحی) به ترتیب دارای بالاترین اهمیت هستند. در انتهای این مقاله، استراتژی‌های پاسخ به ریسک، اقدامات اصلاحی و همچنین تحلیل‌های حساسیت لازم در این حوزه ارائه شد.
چکیده انگلیسی:
The petrochemical industry is one of the most important industries in the oil and gas sector because of the enormous volume of facilities and processes, which have unavoidable risks and risks. Different risk assessment methods are used to manage these risks, especially in Engineering Procurement Construction (EPC) projects. On the other hand, considering the number and variety of risks in Engineering Procurement Construction (EPC) projects, determining their weight and ranking is of particular importance. This research is applied in purpose and is conducted in the head office of one of the petrochemical companies and two groups consist of experts of contract education and contracting unit (project management contracts) to collect the selected information that answered the questionnaires. In this study, the identified risks were evaluated and rated using the failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) technique, and the critical risks were weighted and ranked using Analytical Network Process (ANP) and superconducting software. According to the results of the study, contract estimation risks were the least important and engineering sector risks were the most important. The results also showed that the risks of logistics sector, risks in contract estimation (values and costs), financial sector risks and finally engineering (design) risks are more important respectively.
منابع و مأخذ:
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Hashemi, G.S. M,. Mirza Ramazani, A,. Nasirian, S. M. M. (2017). Identify the technological risks of the new product development process and prioritize it with the Network Analysis Process (ANP). Journal of Growth and Technology. 14(53), 58-75.
Lee, P. Lam, P.T.I. LEE, W.L. (2015). Risks in Energy Performance Contracting (EPC) projects. Energy and Buildings, 92,116-127.
Maia, V. Gomes, L. Filardi, F. (2019). The selection of oil & gas projects contract strategies with the anp: a case study 10(2).
MohammadFam, Iraj. (2007). Risk Assessment and Management. Hamedan: Fanavaran Publications.
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Sun, Zh. Lan Zho, Zh. Gan, LF. (2018). Safety assessment in oil drilling work system based on empirical study and Analytic Network. Safety Science, 105, 86-97.
Tehrani, Z. (1392). Identification and Qualitative Analysis of the Risks of EPC Projects in the Oil and Gas Industry. 2nd International project management conference, Tehran.
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Ahrar, K & Vahdat, D. (2010). Providing the model for analysis and evaluation of automated mechanized system (CMMS) using fuzzy logic. (Case Study in Fan Avaran Petrochemical Company). First International Conference on Management and Innovation, Shiraz.
Bagheri, S & Lotfi, M.R. (2016). A Model for Implementing Risk Management Process in Petroleum Projects Using PMBOK Standar. Quarterly Journal of Standard and Quality Management of Islamic Azad University, Firoozkooh Branch, 6(1),1-19.
Colin F Duffield, L. D. Wei, Y. (2016). Relationships among risk management, partnering, and contractor capability in international EPC project delivery. Manegment in Engineering, 32(6).
Darabian, M. Jafari,. A & Bshly Soleimani, A. (2009). Risk management in projects with an emphasis on contracts EPC. The first national conference of the project by EPC, Tehran, Studies contracting system.
Dorrea, B & Hamzehe, A. (2010). Determine strategies to respond to risk in risk management techniques, ANP, (Case Study: North Azadegan oil field). Journal of Technology Management, 2(4), 75-92.
Dorrea, B,. Salami, H & Moazez, H. (2008). Integrated approach to risk assessment using FMEA and ANP methods. Journal of Management Research, 14(4), 107-136.
Falah Modari,R,. Falah Modari, A.R,. Musa Farkhani., M, Mohammadian., Y & Lal,. F. (2018). FMEA risk assessment methods and the effectiveness of the integrated management system (IMS) on risk priority number (RPN). Journal of Health and Health Promotion, Tehran University of Medical Sciences martyr Beheshti.
Garbuzova-Schlifter, M and Madlener, R. (2017). Risk Analysis of Energy Performance Contracting Projects in Russia: An Analytic Hierarchy Process Approach Operations. Research proceeding, 683-690.
Hamani, A and Boudjema, L. (2013). A Generic Model Helps to Transit from Crisis Management to Natural Disasters Risk Management and Stabilize Sustainable Development. Energy Procedia. Laboratoire de Mécanique des Structures (LMS), 36, 977-984.
Hashemi, G.S. M,. Mirza Ramazani, A,. Nasirian, S. M. M. (2017). Identify the technological risks of the new product development process and prioritize it with the Network Analysis Process (ANP). Journal of Growth and Technology. 14(53), 58-75.
Lee, P. Lam, P.T.I. LEE, W.L. (2015). Risks in Energy Performance Contracting (EPC) projects. Energy and Buildings, 92,116-127.
Maia, V. Gomes, L. Filardi, F. (2019). The selection of oil & gas projects contract strategies with the anp: a case study 10(2).
MohammadFam, Iraj. (2007). Risk Assessment and Management. Hamedan: Fanavaran Publications.
Muharram, S. (2018). Risk Management in the Downstream Sector of Iran's Oil and Gas Industry: A Sustainable Development Approach. Khaje Nasir al-Din Tusi University of Technology Faculty of Industries.
Sun, Zh. Lan Zho, Zh. Gan, LF. (2018). Safety assessment in oil drilling work system based on empirical study and Analytic Network. Safety Science, 105, 86-97.
Tehrani, Z. (1392). Identification and Qualitative Analysis of the Risks of EPC Projects in the Oil and Gas Industry. 2nd International project management conference, Tehran.
