تروریسم، فعالیت‌های نظامی و پایداری زیست‌محیطی در کشورهای خاورمیانه: رویکرد کوانتایل ARDL پانلی

محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه اقتصاد محاسباتی

ابوالقاسم گلخندان ^{1 *}

1 - لرستان، دانشگاه لرستان، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، گروه اقتصاد

تاریخ دریافت : 1403/12/07 تاریخ پذیرش : 1404/03/18 تاریخ انتشار : 1404/04/25

کلید واژه: تروریسم, مخارج نظامی, ضریب ظرفیت بار, کوانتایل ARDL پانلی, کشورهای خاورمیانه.,

چکیده مقاله :

آلودگی محیط‌زیست و تروریسم دو مشکل اصلی جهان امروزی هستند. آلودگی محیط‌زیست تأثیرات شدیدی بر توسعه پایدار دارد. تروریسم نیز خطرات قابل‌توجهی برای ایمنی و رفاه افراد و جامعه در سطح جهان دارد. از طرفی، در پاسخ به شیوع تروریسم، دولت‌ها منابع مالی قابل‌توجهی را برای مبارزه با آن اختصاص می‌دهند که به افزایش هزینه‌های نظامی منجر خواهد شد. بر این اساس، مطالعه حاضر با پیوند دادن تغییرات اقلیمی با تروریسم و مخارج نظامی که از عوامل جدید و ناشناخته پایداری محیطی هستند، چشم‌اندازی منحصربه‌فرد در حوزه پایداری زیست‌محیطی کشورهای منطقه خاورمیانه ارائه می‌کند. در این راستا هدف اصلی مطالعه حاضر آزمون تجربی تأثیر شاخص جهانی تروریسم و مخارج نظامی بر ضریب ظرفیت بار (شاخص جامع و جدید پایداری زیست‌محیطی) در 8 کشور منطقه خاورمیانه طی بازه زمانی 2023-2011 است. به این منظور از برآوردگر کوانتایل ARDL پانلی و آزمون علیت پانلی دومیترسکو و هورلین (D-H) استفاده شده است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که تأثیر کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت تروریسم بر پایداری زیست‌محیطی، در تمام کوانتایل‌ها (به جز کوانتایل پایانی)، منفی و معنادار و از لحاظ مقداری اندک است (75^th-10^th). همچنین، به مقدار شدت این اثرگذاری منفی در کوانتایل‌های بالایی افزوده می‌شود. تأثیر کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت مخارج نظامی  بر پایداری زیست‌محیطی نیز، در کوانتایل‌های 75^th-25^th منفی و معنادار است. بنابراین می‌توان گفت که تروریسم و فعالیت‌های نظامی، تهدیدی برای پایداری زیست‌محیطی محسوب می‌شوند. بر اساس نتایج آزمون علیت D-H می‌توان گفت که مخارج نظامی، تروریسم، رشد اقتصادی و تجارت از پیش‌بینی‌کنندگان پایداری زیست‌محیطی در کشورهای مورد مطالعه‌اند.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Extended Abstract

Purpose

Environmental pollution and terrorism are the two main problems the world faces nowadays. Environmental pollution has a strong impact on sustainable development. Terrorism harms not only economic and social life but also the environment. The environmental damages caused by terrorism include terrestrial conflicts, terrorist camps and bases, training activities, and carbon dioxide emissions (CO₂) related to energy consumption. Similar to official military forces, terrorists use a great deal of fossil fuel energy for armed vehicles, including tanks and heavy weapon carriers, manufacturing arms and ammunition, and sustaining their activities, including heating, among others. Additionally, the employment of military weapons and equipment against terrorism consumes a large amount of energy. The effect of terrorism on the environment is not limited to CO₂ emissions, terrorists also use a large scale of various chemicals and heavy metals related to mass destruction weapons. The chemicals and heavy metals contaminate soil, air, and water, which cannot be easily purified. In response to the spread of terrorism, governments have allocated considerable resources to combat terrorism. These efforts include intelligence gathering, law enforcement, military operations, and security enhancements, all contributing to increasing military expenditure. Excessive military expenditure has several environmental implications. The manufacturing and maintenance of military equipment result in significant emissions of greenhouse gases. The military sector is a significant contributor to worldwide fossil fuel use, hence playing a role in the exacerbation of climate change and the generation of air pollutants. Furthermore, military operations frequently lead to the destruction of habitats, deforestation, and soil contamination within areas affected by conflict, thereby causing detrimental effects on local ecosystems.

Accordingly, this study provides a unique perspective on the environmental sustainability of Middle Eastern countries by linking climate change with terrorism and military spending, which are new and unknown environmental sustainability factors. In this regard, the main objective of the present study is to empirically test the impact of the global terrorism index and military spending on the load capacity factor (a new comprehensive index of environmental sustainability) in 8 countries in the Middle East region during the period 2011-2023.

Methodology

The panel data used in the analysis of this study is annual data from 2011 to 2023 for 8 countries of the Middle East region. The data used are military expenditure, global terrorism index, real gross domestic product (GDP), trade, and LCF (LCF is obtained by dividing the biological capacity by the ecological footprint). Data on GDP (per capita, constant 2015 dollars), and trade (% of GDP) were obtained from the World Bank. Data on biological capacity (per capita, gha) and ecological footprint (per capita, gha) are taken from the Global Footprint Network. Data on military expenditure (% of GDP) and the global terrorism index (which ranges from 0 to 10) are also taken from SIPRI and IEP, respectively. The present study employs the P-QARDL method to examine the interrelationships between military expenditure, terrorism, and environmental sustainability across different quantiles of the dependent variable. The primary advantage of the P-QARDL is its increased resilience to non-normal errors. Additionally, the skewness, heterogeneity, and outliers of the dependent variable are taken into account. This model improves upon the traditional ARDL model by assessing the short-run and long-run impacts across various quantiles of LCF. Furthermore, the P-QARDL model provides estimates even with a small sample size, and the data contain outliers. In line with the ARDL model, it is advantageous when the variables are integrated of order one [I(1)] or zero [I(0)]. Finally, we conduct a causality analysis using the panel causality test proposed by Dumitrescu and Hurlin, an improved version of the conventional Granger causality test for heterogeneous panels.

Findings

The results show that the short-term and long-term impact of terrorism on environmental sustainability is negative and significant in all quantiles (except the final quantile) and is quantitatively small (10^th-75^th). Also, the magnitude of this negative impact increases in the upper quantiles. The short-term and long-term impact of military spending on environmental sustainability is also negative and significant in the 25^th-75^th quantiles. Therefore, it can be said that terrorism and military activities are a threat to environmental sustainability. Based on the results of the D-H causality test, it can be said that military spending, terrorism, economic growth, and trade are predictors of environmental sustainability in the studied countries. The results show that economic growth in the lower quantiles, where environmental sustainability is at a lower level, leads to environmental degradation; but in the long run, the extent of this negative impact should decrease, which in a way confirms the EKC hypothesis. Also, trade in the low, medium, and high quantiles leads to a decrease in environmental sustainability in selected countries in the Middle East region, and the severity of this negative impact is greater in the high quantiles. The “pollution haven” hypothesis is not rejected in the mentioned quantiles. 

Conclusion

The results show that terrorism and military activities have led to destruction and pressure on the environment in most Middle Eastern countries and are considered a threat to it. The Middle Eastern region requires a comprehensive or holistic strategy that effectively addresses security concerns while also prioritizing the preservation of the environment for both present and future generations. In addition, governments in the Middle Eastern and their armed services can adopt various ways to mitigate the environmental impact of military exercises and promote ecological sustainability.

 

منابع و مأخذ:


Refrences
- Ahmad, M., Jabeen, G. and Wu, Y. (2021). Heterogeneity of pollution haven/halo hypothesis and environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis across development levels of Chinese provinces. Journal of Cleaner Production, 285.Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.124898/
- Aladejare, S. A. (2022). Natural resource rents, globalization, and environmental degradation: new insight from 5 richest African economies. Resources Policy, 78(C). Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.102909/
- Bildirici, M. (2017). CO2 emissions and militarization in G7 countries: panel co-integration and trivariate causality approaches. Environment and Development Economics, 22(6), 771-791. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1017/S1355770X1700016X/
- Bildirici, M., Genç, S.Y. and Castanho, R.A. (2022). Environmental Pollution, Terrorism, and Mortality Rate in China, India, Russia, and Türkiye. Sustainability, 14(19), 12649. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.3390/su141912649/
- Bildirici, M. and Gokmenoglu, S.M. (2020). The impact of terrorism and FDI on environmental pollution: Evidence from Afghanistan, Iraq, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Syria, Somalia, Thailand and Yemen. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 81. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2019.106340/
- Birdsall, N. and Wheeler, D. (1993). Trade policy and industrial pollution in Latin America: where are the pollution havens? The Journal of Environment and Development, 2(1), 137-149. Retrieved from https://doi. org/10.1177/107049659300200107/
- Cho, J.S., Kim, T.H. & Shin, Y. (2015). Quantile cointegration in the autoregressive distributed-lag modeling framework. Journal of Econometrics, 188(1), 281-300. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2015.05.003/
- Clark, B. and Jorgenson, A.K. (2012). The treadmill of destruction and the environmental impacts of militaries. Sociology Compass, 6, 557-569. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1111/ J.1751-9020.2012.00474X/
- Dogan, A. and Pata, U. K. (2022). The role of ICT, R&D spending and renewable energy consumption on environmental quality: testing the LCC hypothesis for G7 countries. Journal of Cleaner Production. 380(1), Article 135038. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.135038/
- Dumitrescu, E-I. and Hurlin, C. (2012). Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels. Economic Modelling, 29(4), 1450-1460. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.02.014/
- Efayena, O.O. and Olele, E.H. (2024). Environmental sustainability, terrorism, and military expenditure in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from panel quantile ARDL regression and panel causality. Sustainable Futures, 7(5),100214. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sftr.2024.100214/
- Farhani, R. (2022). The Dynamic Links between Renewable Energy and Environmental Quality in an Insecure Situation: Evidence from African Economies. Africa Review 15(1), 1-19. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1163/09744061-bja10059/
- Gleick, P.H. (1991). Environment and security: the clear connections.
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 47(3), 16-21. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1080/00963402.1991.11459956/
- Golkhandan, A. (2019). Militarization and Air Pollution: Study of Powerful Countries of the World using a Panel Co-Integration Analysis. Journal of Environmental Science Studies, 3(4), 823-830. (In Persian)
- Golkhandan, A. (2023). Impact of Political Risk on Ecological Footprint in Iran: Multiple Asymmetric Thresholds NARDL (MATNARDL) Approach. Economic Policies and Research, 2(3), 114-148. Retrieved from https://doi. org/10.22034/jepr.2024.140960.1104/ (In Persian)
- Golkhandan, A. (2024). Asymmetric Effect of Unemployment on Load Capacity Factor (LCF) in Selected MENA Countries: Analysis of the Environmental Phillips Curve (EPC) Hypothesis. New Economy and Trad, 19(64),133-173. Retrieved from https://doi. org/10.30465/jnet.2025.49103.2145/ (In Persian)
- Golkhandan, A. and Mohammadian Mansour, S. (2023). The Role of Institutions and the Abundance of Natural Resources on the Relationship between Militarization and Economic Growth: A Study of Developing Countries with the Introduction of the Global Militarization Index (GMI). Quarterly Journal of Fiscal and Economic Policies, 11(42), 173-221. Retrieved from https://doi. org/ 10.61186/qjfep.11.42.173/ (In Persian)
- Hashmi, S.M., Chang, B.H., Huang, L. and Uche, E. (2022). Revisiting the relationship between oil prices, exchange rate, and stock prices: an application of quantile ARDL model. Resource Policy, 75. 102-113. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102543/
- Hooks, G. and Smith, C.L (2004). The treadmill of destruction: national sacrifice areas and Native Americans. American Sociological Review, 69(4), 558-575. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1177/000312240406900405/
- Hooks, G. and Smith, C. L. (2005). Treadmills of production and destruction: threats to the environment posed by militarism. Organization & Environment, 18(1), 19-37. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1177/1086026604270453/
- Husnain, M. and Ali, W. (2023). Nexus among militarization, economic development, FDI, stock market development and renewable energy usage, and CO2 emissions. Pakistan Journal of Commerce and Social Sciences, 17(3), 646-676.
- Kao, C. (1999). Spurious regression and residual-based tests for co-integration in panel data. Journal of Econometrics, 90(1), 1-44. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1016/S03044076(98)00023-2
- Khan, A., Sun, C., Xu, Z. and Liu, Y. (2023). Geopolitical risk, economic uncertainty, and militarization: Significant agents of energy consumption and environmental quality. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 102(35),107166. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2023.107166/
- Kılıç, C., Soyyiğit, S., Bayar, Y. and Bekun, F.V. (2024). Exploration on terrorism, ecological footprint and environmental sustainability in countries with the most terrorism antecedent: Accessing evidence from panel Fourier analysis. Heliyon, 10(29), e22849. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e22849
- Narayan, P.K. and Narayan, S. (2010). Carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth: Panel data evidence from developing countries. Energy Policy, 38(1), 661-666. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2009.09.005/
- Pata, U.K. and Ertugrul, H.M. (2023). Do the Kyoto Protocol, geopolitical risks, human capital, and natural resources affect the sustainability limit? A new environmental approach based on the LCC hypothesis. Resources Policy, 81(26), id 103352. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.103352/
- Pata, U.K. and Samour, A. (2022). Do renewable and nuclear energy enhance environmental quality in France? A new EKC approach with the load capacity factor. Progress in Nuclear Energy, 149(21), 104249. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pnucene.2022.104249/
- Pedroni, P. (2004). Panel co-integration, asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series tests with an application to the PPP hypothesis. Econometric Theory, 20(03), 597-625. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1017/S0266466604203073/
- Peng, B., Chang, B.H., Yang, L. and Zhu, C. (2022). Exchange rate and energy demand in G7 countries: fresh insights from Quantile ARDL model. Energy Strategy Reviews, 44, 100-116. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2022.100986/
- Qayyum, U., Anjum, S. and Sabir, S. (2021). Armed conflicts, militarisation and ecological footprints: Empirical evidence from South Asia, Journal of Cleaner Production,28, id 125299. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.125299/
- Sharif, A., Godil, D.I, Xu, B., Sinha, A., Rehman Khan S.A. and Jermsittiparsert, K. (2020). Revisiting the Role of Tourism and Globalization in Environmental Degradation in China: Fresh Insights from the Quantile ARDL Approach, Journal of Cleaner Production, 272. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.122906/
- Solarin, S.A., Al-Mulali, U. and Ozturk, I. (2018). Determinants of pollution and the role of the military sector: evidence from a maximum likelihood approach with two structural breaks in the USA. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 25(31), 30949-30961. Retrieved from https://doi. org/10.1007/s11356-018-3060-5/
- Sun, Z., Sun, X., Wang, W. and Wang, W. (2023). Source reduction strategy or end-of-pipe solution? The impact of green merger and acquisition on environmental investment strategy of Chinese heavily polluting enterprises. Journal of Cleaner Production. 413, id 137530 Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.137530/
- Tahir, M., Burki, U. and Azid, T. (2022). Terrorism and environmental sustainability: Empirical evidence from the MENA region. Resources, Environment and Sustainability, 8(3), id 100056. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resenv.2022.100056/
- Tarczyński, W., Roman, L., Rejman, K., Salahodjaev, R. and Azam, S. (2023). Military spending and CO2 emissions: Empirical findings from countries with highest per capita military spending. Journal of International Studies, 16(2), 211-221. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.14254/2071-8330.2023/16-2/14/
- Zhu, H., Chang, S. and Chen, B. (2024). Technological innovation, militarization, and environmental change: evidence from BRICS economies. Environmental Science and Pollution Research,31(14),1-15. Retrieved from https://doi. org/10.1007/s11356-024-32718-y/