افزایش قابلیت اطمینان انسانی از طریق شناسایی و ارزیابی احتمالی ریشه های بالفعل و بالقوه خطاهای گروه های نگهداری شبکه های انتقال و فوق توزیع برق
محورهای موضوعی : انرژی های تجدیدپذیر
مهدی توکلی
1
(گروه مهندسی برق- واحد مرودشت، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، مرودشت، فارس، ایران)
مهدی نفر
2
(گروه مهندسی برق- واحد مرودشت، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، مرودشت، فارس، ایران)
کلید واژه: خطاهای انسانی, احتمال خطا, صنعت انتقال برق, روش سیستم تجزیه و تحلیل, طبقه‌بندی عوامل انسانی. گروه‌های نگهداری و تعمیرات,
چکیده مقاله :
زندگی انسان‌ها و اقتصاد یک کشور هر روزه به انرژی الکتریکی وابسته‌تر می‌شود. ولیکن حوادث یا خطاهای رخ داده به علت عوامل مختلف در شبکه‌های برق می‌تواند تأمین این انرژی را با وقفه همراه سازد. یکی از این عوامل، خطای انسانی در حین عملیات نگهداری است. نتایج مطالعه موردی انجام شده در شرکت تعمیر و نگهداری نشان داده است که خطای انسانی حداقل حدود ۲۶ میلیارد ریال هزینه نگهداری برنامه ریزی نشده را افزایش داده است. بنابراین هدف از تحقیق حاضر، تجزیه و تحلیل قابلیت اطمینان انسانی گروه‌های نگهداری و تعمیرات در شبکه‌های انتقال و فوق توزیع برق جهت جلوگیری از تأثیر مخرب خطاهای انسانی است. در گام نخست، شناسایی عوامل به وجود آورنده خطای انسانی به طور کامل و جامع است که مطالعات محدودی در این زمینه تاکنون انجام شده است. لذا در این مقاله، ریشه‌های بالفعل و بالقوه از جنبه‌های مختلف نظیر سازمان، حالت‌های روحی فرد، نظارت و غیره در چارچوب روش تجزیه و تحلیل عوامل انسانی و طبقه بندی سیستم شناسایی و پیش بینی می‌شوند. سپس، روشی برای تخمین احتمال تاثیر ریشه‌ها بر روی پرسنل ارایه می‌گردد که با استفاده از نتایج آن، اولویت بندی اقدامات کنترلی و اصلاحی لازم جهت کاهش خطاهای انسانی انجام می‌شود. درنهایت، مطالعه موردی روش پیشنهادی بر روی گروه‌های نگهداری انتقال و فوق توزیع فارس انجام شده است.
Human life and the economy of a country are becoming more and more dependent on electricity. However, events that occur due to various factors in the power grids, affect the quality of electrical energy delivered to subscribers. The human error of maintenance teams is one of the most important causes of automatic outputs of electrical equipment. Human error, in addition to the economic consequences of not transiting electrical energy due to equipment outages, may also cause health damage to personnel. The purpose of this study is to propose a method for analyzing the human reliability of maintenance teams in power transmission grids, which has been implemented as a case study on power transmission grids teams in Fars. The first step is to identify the roots of human error. So far, no comprehensive studies have been conducted on the root causes of human error in power transmission grids. Therefore, in this article, the actual and potential roots of various aspects such as organization, individual moods, supervision, etc. are identified and predicted in the framework of the method of human factors analysis and classification system. Then, a method is proposed to estimate the probability of the root event to use its results to prioritize the necessary control and corrective measures to reduce human error.
[1] H.H. Alhelou, M.E. Hamedani-Golshan, T.C. Njenda, P. Siano, “A survey on power system blackout and cascading events: Research motivations and challenges”, Energies, vol. 12, no. 4, pp. 682, 2019 (doi: /10.3390/en12040682).
[2] M. Prasad, A.J. Gaikwad, “Human error probability estimation by coupling simulator data and deterministic analysis”, Progress in Nuclear Energy, vol. 8, pp. 22-29, May 2015 (doi: 10.1016/j.pnucene.2015.01.008).
[3] O.P. Veloza, F. Santamaria, “Analysis of major blackouts from 2003 to 2015: Classification of incidents and review of main causes”, The Electricity Journal, vol. 29, no. 7, pp. 42-49, Sept. 2016 (doi: 10.1016/j.tej.2016.08.006).
[4] Z. Wang, M. Rahnamay-Naeini, J.M. Abreu, R.A. Shuvro, P. Das, A.A. Mammoli, N. Ghani, M.M. Hayat, “Impacts of operators’ behavior on reliability of power grids during cascading failures”, IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, vol. 33, no. 6, pp. 6013–6024, Nov. 2018 (doi: 10.1109/TPWRS.2018.2825348).
[5] Y. Bao, J. Guo, J. Tang, Z. Li, S. Pang, C. Guo, “Analysis of power system operation reliability incorporating human errors”, Proceeding of the IEEE/ICEMS, pp. 1052-1056, Hangzhou, China, Oct. 2014 (doi: 10.1109/ICEMS.2014.7013625).
[6] J. Tang, Y. Bao, L. Wang, H. Lu, Y. Wang, C. Guo, J. Liu, B. Zhou, “A Bayesian network approach for human reliability analysis of power system”, Proceeding of the IEEE/APPEEC, pp. 1-6, Kowloon, China, Dec. 2013 (doi: 10.1109/APPEEC.2013.6837128).
[7] R. Peach, H. Ellisl, J.K. Visserl, “A maintenance performance measurement framework that includes maintenance human factors: a case study from the electricity transmission industry”, South African Journal of Industrial Engineering, vol. 27, no. 2, pp. 177-189, Aug. 2016 (doi: 10.7166/27-2-1492).
[8] H. Silva-Santos, T. Araújo-dos-Santos, A.S. Alves, M.N. Silva, H.O.G. Costa, C.M.M. Melo, “Error-producing conditions in nursing staff work”, Rev Bras Enferm., vol. 71, no. 4, pp. 1858-1864, Jul-Aug. 2018 (doi:10.1590/0034-7167-2017-0192).
[9] H. Akbari, M. Motalebi-Kashani, Z. Asadi, M. Kaveh, H. Saberi , “The relationship between job satisfaction and the incidence of unsafe acts in metal smelting industry workers in 2017”, International Archives of Health Sciences, vol. 6, no. 3, pp. 127-13, Jan. 2019 (doi: 10.4103/iahs.iahs_40_19).
[10] B. Song, Z. Wang, Y. Lu, X. Teng, X. Chen, Y. Zhou, H. Ye, S. Fu, “A multidimensional workload assessment method for power grid dispatcher”, Proceeding of the EPCE, pp: 55-68, Las Vegas, USA, July 2018 (doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-91122-9_5).
[11] Y. Bao, C. Guo, J. Zhang, J. Wu, S. Pang, Z. Zhang, “Impact analysis of human factors on power system operation reliability”, Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy, vol. 6, no. 1, pp. 27–39, Jan. 2018 (doi: 10.1007/s40565-016-0231-6).
[12] L. Peng-cheng, Ch. Guo-hua, D. Li-cao, Z. Li, “A fuzzy Bayesian network approach to improve the quantification of organizational influences in HRA frameworks”, Safety Science, vol. 50, no. 7, pp. 1569-1583, Aug. 2012 (doi: 10.1016/j.ssci.2012.03.017).
[13] X. Pan, Y. Lin, C. He, “A review of cognitive models in human reliability analysis”, Quality and Reliability Engineering International, vol. 33, no. 7, pp. 1299-1316, Nov. 2017 (doi: 10.1002/qre.2111).
[14] “Fars power transmission network events analysis report-2018”, FREC annual report, 2018 (in Persian).
[15] V.N. Aju kumar, M.S. Gandhib, O.P. Gandhic, “Identification and assessment of factors influencing human reliability in maintenance using fuzzy cognitive maps”, Quality and Reliability Engineering International, vol. 31, no. 2, pp. 169-181, Mar. 2015 (doi: 10.1002/qre.1569).
[16] V.N. Aju kumar, O.P. Gandhi, “Quantification of human error in maintenance using graph theory and matrix approach”, Quality and Reliability Engineering International, vol. 27, no. 8, pp. 1145-1172, Dec. 2011 (doi: 10.1002/qre.1202).
[17] P.M. Salmon, M. Cornelissen, M.J. Trotter, “Systems-based accident analysis methods: A comparison of Accimap, HFACS and STAMP”, Safety Science, vol. 50, no. 4, pp. 1158–1170, Apr. 2012 (doi: 10.1016/j.ssci.2011.11.009).
[18] M.T. Baysari, C. Caponecchia, A.S. McIntosh, J.R. Wilson, “Classification of errors contributing to rail incidents and accidents: A comparison of two human error identification techniques”, Safety Science, vol. 47, no. 7, pp. 948-957, Aug. 2009 (doi: 10.1016/j.ssci.2008.09.012).
[19] A.Y. Daramola, “An investigation of air accidents in Nigeria using the Human Factor Analysis and Classification System framework”, Journal of Air Transport Management, vol. 35, pp. 39-50, Mar. 2014 (doi: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2013.11.004).
[20] T. Diller, G. Helmrich, S. Dunning, S. Cox, A. Buchanan, S. Shappell, “The Human Factors Analysis Classification System (HFACS) applied to health care”, Am J Med Qual., vol. 29, no. 3, pp. 181-190, May-June 2014 (doi: 10.1177/1062860613491623).
[21] S.A. Shappell, D.A. Wiegmann, “Applying reason: the human factors analysis and classification system (HFACS)”, Human Factors and Aerospace Safety, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 59–86, Jan. 2001.
[22] S.W.A. Dekker, “Reconstructing human contributions to accidents: the new view on error and performance”, Safety Research, vol. 33, no. 3, pp. 371-385, Oct. 2002 (doi: 10.1016/S0022-4375(02)00032-4).
[23] A. Boquet, C. Detwiler, S. Shappell, “A human factors analysis of U.S. emergency medical transport accidents”, Air medical journal, vol. 23, no. 5 pp. 34-44, Sept. 2004 (doi: 10.1016/j.amj.2004.08.014).
[24] G. Grigoraş, C. Bărbulescu, “Human errors monitoring in electrical transmission networks based on a partitioning algorithm”, Electrical Power & Energy Systems, vol. 49, pp. 128-136, Jul. 2013 (doi: 10.1016/j.ijepes.2012.12.016).
[25] V.R. Renjith, G. Madhu, V.L.G. Nayagam, A.B. Bhasi, “Two-dimensional fuzzy fault tree analysis for chlorine release from a chlor-alkali industry using expert elicitation”, Journal of Hazardous Materials, vol. 183, no. 1-3, pp. 103-110, Nov. 2010 (doi:10.1016/j.jhazmat.2010.06.116).
_||_[1] H.H. Alhelou, M.E. Hamedani-Golshan, T.C. Njenda, P. Siano, “A survey on power system blackout and cascading events: Research motivations and challenges”, Energies, vol. 12, no. 4, pp. 682, 2019 (doi: /10.3390/en12040682).
[2] M. Prasad, A.J. Gaikwad, “Human error probability estimation by coupling simulator data and deterministic analysis”, Progress in Nuclear Energy, vol. 8, pp. 22-29, May 2015 (doi: 10.1016/j.pnucene.2015.01.008).
[3] O.P. Veloza, F. Santamaria, “Analysis of major blackouts from 2003 to 2015: Classification of incidents and review of main causes”, The Electricity Journal, vol. 29, no. 7, pp. 42-49, Sept. 2016 (doi: 10.1016/j.tej.2016.08.006).
[4] Z. Wang, M. Rahnamay-Naeini, J.M. Abreu, R.A. Shuvro, P. Das, A.A. Mammoli, N. Ghani, M.M. Hayat, “Impacts of operators’ behavior on reliability of power grids during cascading failures”, IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, vol. 33, no. 6, pp. 6013–6024, Nov. 2018 (doi: 10.1109/TPWRS.2018.2825348).
[5] Y. Bao, J. Guo, J. Tang, Z. Li, S. Pang, C. Guo, “Analysis of power system operation reliability incorporating human errors”, Proceeding of the IEEE/ICEMS, pp. 1052-1056, Hangzhou, China, Oct. 2014 (doi: 10.1109/ICEMS.2014.7013625).
[6] J. Tang, Y. Bao, L. Wang, H. Lu, Y. Wang, C. Guo, J. Liu, B. Zhou, “A Bayesian network approach for human reliability analysis of power system”, Proceeding of the IEEE/APPEEC, pp. 1-6, Kowloon, China, Dec. 2013 (doi: 10.1109/APPEEC.2013.6837128).
[7] R. Peach, H. Ellisl, J.K. Visserl, “A maintenance performance measurement framework that includes maintenance human factors: a case study from the electricity transmission industry”, South African Journal of Industrial Engineering, vol. 27, no. 2, pp. 177-189, Aug. 2016 (doi: 10.7166/27-2-1492).
[8] H. Silva-Santos, T. Araújo-dos-Santos, A.S. Alves, M.N. Silva, H.O.G. Costa, C.M.M. Melo, “Error-producing conditions in nursing staff work”, Rev Bras Enferm., vol. 71, no. 4, pp. 1858-1864, Jul-Aug. 2018 (doi:10.1590/0034-7167-2017-0192).
[9] H. Akbari, M. Motalebi-Kashani, Z. Asadi, M. Kaveh, H. Saberi , “The relationship between job satisfaction and the incidence of unsafe acts in metal smelting industry workers in 2017”, International Archives of Health Sciences, vol. 6, no. 3, pp. 127-13, Jan. 2019 (doi: 10.4103/iahs.iahs_40_19).
[10] B. Song, Z. Wang, Y. Lu, X. Teng, X. Chen, Y. Zhou, H. Ye, S. Fu, “A multidimensional workload assessment method for power grid dispatcher”, Proceeding of the EPCE, pp: 55-68, Las Vegas, USA, July 2018 (doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-91122-9_5).
[11] Y. Bao, C. Guo, J. Zhang, J. Wu, S. Pang, Z. Zhang, “Impact analysis of human factors on power system operation reliability”, Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy, vol. 6, no. 1, pp. 27–39, Jan. 2018 (doi: 10.1007/s40565-016-0231-6).
[12] L. Peng-cheng, Ch. Guo-hua, D. Li-cao, Z. Li, “A fuzzy Bayesian network approach to improve the quantification of organizational influences in HRA frameworks”, Safety Science, vol. 50, no. 7, pp. 1569-1583, Aug. 2012 (doi: 10.1016/j.ssci.2012.03.017).
[13] X. Pan, Y. Lin, C. He, “A review of cognitive models in human reliability analysis”, Quality and Reliability Engineering International, vol. 33, no. 7, pp. 1299-1316, Nov. 2017 (doi: 10.1002/qre.2111).
[14] “Fars power transmission network events analysis report-2018”, FREC annual report, 2018 (in Persian).
[15] V.N. Aju kumar, M.S. Gandhib, O.P. Gandhic, “Identification and assessment of factors influencing human reliability in maintenance using fuzzy cognitive maps”, Quality and Reliability Engineering International, vol. 31, no. 2, pp. 169-181, Mar. 2015 (doi: 10.1002/qre.1569).
[16] V.N. Aju kumar, O.P. Gandhi, “Quantification of human error in maintenance using graph theory and matrix approach”, Quality and Reliability Engineering International, vol. 27, no. 8, pp. 1145-1172, Dec. 2011 (doi: 10.1002/qre.1202).
[17] P.M. Salmon, M. Cornelissen, M.J. Trotter, “Systems-based accident analysis methods: A comparison of Accimap, HFACS and STAMP”, Safety Science, vol. 50, no. 4, pp. 1158–1170, Apr. 2012 (doi: 10.1016/j.ssci.2011.11.009).
[18] M.T. Baysari, C. Caponecchia, A.S. McIntosh, J.R. Wilson, “Classification of errors contributing to rail incidents and accidents: A comparison of two human error identification techniques”, Safety Science, vol. 47, no. 7, pp. 948-957, Aug. 2009 (doi: 10.1016/j.ssci.2008.09.012).
[19] A.Y. Daramola, “An investigation of air accidents in Nigeria using the Human Factor Analysis and Classification System framework”, Journal of Air Transport Management, vol. 35, pp. 39-50, Mar. 2014 (doi: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2013.11.004).
[20] T. Diller, G. Helmrich, S. Dunning, S. Cox, A. Buchanan, S. Shappell, “The Human Factors Analysis Classification System (HFACS) applied to health care”, Am J Med Qual., vol. 29, no. 3, pp. 181-190, May-June 2014 (doi: 10.1177/1062860613491623).
[21] S.A. Shappell, D.A. Wiegmann, “Applying reason: the human factors analysis and classification system (HFACS)”, Human Factors and Aerospace Safety, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 59–86, Jan. 2001.
[22] S.W.A. Dekker, “Reconstructing human contributions to accidents: the new view on error and performance”, Safety Research, vol. 33, no. 3, pp. 371-385, Oct. 2002 (doi: 10.1016/S0022-4375(02)00032-4).
[23] A. Boquet, C. Detwiler, S. Shappell, “A human factors analysis of U.S. emergency medical transport accidents”, Air medical journal, vol. 23, no. 5 pp. 34-44, Sept. 2004 (doi: 10.1016/j.amj.2004.08.014).
[24] G. Grigoraş, C. Bărbulescu, “Human errors monitoring in electrical transmission networks based on a partitioning algorithm”, Electrical Power & Energy Systems, vol. 49, pp. 128-136, Jul. 2013 (doi: 10.1016/j.ijepes.2012.12.016).
[25] V.R. Renjith, G. Madhu, V.L.G. Nayagam, A.B. Bhasi, “Two-dimensional fuzzy fault tree analysis for chlorine release from a chlor-alkali industry using expert elicitation”, Journal of Hazardous Materials, vol. 183, no. 1-3, pp. 103-110, Nov. 2010 (doi:10.1016/j.jhazmat.2010.06.116).
