نقش دولت در شرایط مواجهه با بیماری پاندمیک
محورهای موضوعی : اقتصاد کار و جمعیت
علی کشاورزی
1
,
حمیدرضا حرّی
2
,
سید عبدالمجید جلایی اسفندآبادی
3
,
میثم رافعی
4
,
مهدی نجاتی
5
1 - دانشجوی دکتری، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران
2 - دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران
3 - استاد گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران
4 - گروه اقتصاد امور عمومی، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران.
5 - دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران
کلید واژه: بیماری پاندمیک, ادوار تجاری حقیقی, طبقهبندی JEL: .H30, I10, I18 واژگان کلیدی: دولت,
چکیده مقاله :
هدف مقاله، درک اثر شیوع بیماری های عفونی بر اقتصاد و نیز تحلیل نقش دولت در شرایط مواجهه با بحران پاندمی است. به این منظور، با استفاده از سناریوسازی و مدل تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی، واکنش‌های مالی دولت بر متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی بر اساس داده‌های فصلی طی دوره زمانی 1370-95 تحلیل شد. در پیش‌فرض سناریوی بنیادی، دولت، وضع انفعال مالی را دنبال کرده و هیچ واکنش مالی نسبت به تغییر متغیرهای درون‌زا پس از شیوع بیماری نشان نمی‌دهد. در سناریوهای دیگر، دولت نسبت به بحران، با توجه به شرایط مختلف تولید و بدهی عمومی، واکنش مالی بروز می‌دهد. مقایسه نتایج سناریوهای فعال مالی با حالت انفعالی نشان می‌دهد اثر تکانه مخارج دولت به اندازه یک انحراف معیار بر متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی در شرایط بیماری پاندمیک، بازخورد کم‌تری به دنبال داشته است.
The purpose of this article is to understand the effect of the outbreak of infectious diseases on the economy and also to analysis the role of government under pandemic crisis conditions. For this purpose, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is used. After calibrating the parameters based on the quarterly information of Iran's economy during the period of 1991-2016, in the baseline scenario, it is assumed that the government has no involvement in the economy; In other words, the government pursues a state of fiscal passivity and shows no fiscal reaction to the change in endogenous variables after the outbreak of pandemic disease. Subsequently, in other scenarios, the government reacts fiscally to the outbreak of the pandemic, given the different conditions of production and public liability. The results of the study of fiscally active scenarios compared to the state of fiscal passivity indicate that the effect of government expenditures shock as a standard deviation on macroeconomic variables under pandemic disease conditions, has led to much less feedback.
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