ارزیابی کاربرد مدل‌های شبکه عصبی و رگرسیونی به منظور پیش بینی تنوع گونه‌ای با استفاده از برخی عوامل خاکی و فیزیوگرافی (مطالعه موردی: حوزه آبخیز خرابه سنجی ارومیه)
محورهای موضوعی : جنگلداری
بهنام بهرامی
1
(دانشجوی دکتری |علوم مرتع، گروه مرتع و آبخیزداری، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران)
اردوان قربانی
2
(استادیار مرتعداری| گروه مرتع و آبخیزداری، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران)
کلید واژه: عوامل محیطی, مدل‌سازی, پوشش گیاهی, مراتع,
چکیده مقاله :
اندازه گیری مستقیم تنوع گونه ای امری وقت گیر و هزینه بر بوده و تا حدی به دلیل خطاهای حاصل از نمونه گیری غیرقابل اعتماد است. این مطالعه با هدف تعیین فاکتور های کم هزینه در پیش بینی تنوع گونه ای بوسیله شبکه مدل های عصبی مصنوعی، شبکه عصبی تطبیقی-فازی و رگرسیونی انجام شد. نمونه برداری با استفاده از روش سیستماتیک-تصادفی از 60 قطعه نمونه در طول 6 ترانسکت 100 متری و از عمق 30-0 سانتی متری خاک صورت گرفت.اطلاعات پوشش گیاهی به منظور اندازه گیری تنوع گونه ای بوسیله شاخص تنوع شانون-وینر ثبت گردید. همچنین به منظور تعیین عوامل تاثیرگذار بر تنوع گونه ای، فاکتور های هدایت الکتریکی، اسیدیته، وزن مخصوص ظاهری، درصدهای ماده آلی، رس، سیلت، رطوبت اشباع، خاکدانه های درشت و ریز و شیب و ارتفاع تعیین و اندازه گیری شد.سپس با استفاده از مدل های شبکه عصبی نوع پرسپترون چند لایه، شبکه عصبی تطبیقی-فازی و رگرسیونی تخمین تنوع گونه ای تعیین شد.نتایج نشان داد که معیارهای مجذور میانگین مربعات خطا و ضریب کارایی در مدل رگرسیونی به ترتیب 14/0 و 39/0 و در مدل شبکه عصبی مصنوعی 07/0 و 86/0 و در مدل شبکه عصبی تطبیقی-فازی 09/0 و 70/0 می باشند. همچنین میانگین تنوع شانون وینر برای منطقه برابر 1.98 بود.در واقع مدل شبکه عصبی مصنوعی به عنوان ابزار قدرتمندتری در پیش بینی تنوع گونه ای نسبت به آنالیز رگرسیون خطی چند متغیّره و شبکه عصبی تطبیقی-فازی عمل می کند.
Direct measurement of species diversity is a time consuming and cost effective and somewhat unreliable because of errors in the sampling. This study was conducted by the aim of determining low cost factors for predicting species diversity using artificial neural network, adaptive- fuzzy neural network and regression models. Sampling was conducted using randomized-systematic method from 60 plots along 6 transects with 100m long and from 0-30cm of soil depth. Vegetation data were recorded to calculate species diversity by Shannon-wiener index. Moreover, for determining the affective factors on species diversity, electrical conductivity, pH, bulk density, percentages of organic matter, clay, silt, wet saturation, coarse and fine aggregates and slope and elevation were measured and determined. Then species diversity was determined using multii-layer perceptron neural network, adaptive-fuzzy neural network and regression models. The results show that criteria such as root mean squire error and efficiency coefficient of the regression model were 0.14 and 0.39, in artificial neural network 0.07 and 0.86 and for adaptive- fuzzy neural network 0.09 and 0.7, respectively. that Shannon wiener index was 1.98 for the study area. The artificial neural network model as a powerful tool in predicting species diversity in comparison with the multiple linear regression analysis and neural network-fuzzy adaptive models showed reliable results.
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