بررسی نحوه اثر عملکرد پروژه بر موفقیت سرمایهگذاری در سیستم تأمین مالی صندوقتوسعۀملی ایران با استفاده از روش کیفی پویایی سیستمها
محورهای موضوعی : مدیریت پروژهشیما یاراحمدی 1 , احسان اله اشتهاردیان 2 , سعید طاهری 3 , محمدحسین صبحیه 4
1 - دانشجوی دکتری گروه مدیریت پروژه و ساخت، دانشکده هنر، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران
2 - دانشیار گروه مدیریت پروژه وساخت،دانشکده هنر، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران
3 - استادیار گروه مدیریت پروژه، دانشکده مدیریت، دانشگاه ناتینگهام ترنت، ناتینگهام، انگلستان
4 - گروه مدیریت پروژه و ساخت، دانشکده هنر و معماری، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران
کلید واژه: بازپرداخت تسهیلات, تأمین مالی, صندوق توسعه ملی, عملکرد پروژه,
چکیده مقاله :
تأمین بهموقع منابع مالی مورد نیاز، یکی از عوامل کلیدی موفقیت پروژه در جهت دستیابی به عملکرد بهینه است و حصول عملکرد ازپیش تعیین شده نیز از مهمترین عوامل در موفقیت سرمایهگذاری است. صندوق توسعۀ ملی ایران بواسطه اعطای تسهیلات از طریق بانکهای عامل، تاکنون نقش اساسی در تأمین مالی بسیاری از پروژههای پایین دستی نفت و گاز ایفا نموده است. لیکن در سالهای اخیر، نگرانیهایی از سوی دارندگان اعتبار اسنادی (LC[1] ) در خصوص تأخیر و چالش در اجرای تعهدات صندوق مطرح میشود، در حالی که صندوق نیز به طور همزمان از تأخیر در بازپرداخت وام رنج میبرد. چرخه معیوب عدم انجام بهموقع تعهدات طرفین در این قراردادهای مشارکت مدنی، به عنوان یک چالش مهم در مدیریت پروژههای پتروشیمی دارنده تسهیلات از محل صندوق شناسایی شد که نیاز به انجام این پژوهش را برانگیخت. هدف این تحقیق، کشف راهکارهای ارتقایی عملکرد با شناسایی شاخصهای کلیدی عملکرد مؤثر بر بازپرداخت بهموقع وامها و عوامل مؤثر بر این شاخصها در زمینه تأمین مالی پروژههای پتروشیمی از محل صندوق در راستای حل چالش پیش گفته میباشد. این مطالعه با استفاده از رویکرد مدلسازی کیفی روش پویای سیستمها انجام و دادهها را از طریق بیست و نه مصاحبه نیمه ساختاریافته و عمیق انفرادی یا گروهی با خبرگان در چهار گروه سازمانی شامل مدیران صندوق توسعۀ ملی، بانکهای عامل، شرکت ملی پتروشیمی ایران و هشت شرکت پتروشیمی دارنده تسهیلات از محل صندوق توسعۀ ملی جمعآوری گردید. دادههای جمعآوریشده با استفاده از نظریه داده بنیاد به دقت تجزیه و تحلیل شد. یافتهها نشان میدهد که سودآوری، بهرهوری، هزینه و زمانبندی پروژه مهمترین شاخصهای کلیدی مؤثر بر بازپرداخت بهموقع وامها در سیستم تأمین مالی صندوق هستند. در نتیجه، این مدلسازی نیز سه راهکار سیاستی برای سرمایهگذار بهمنظور کاهش خطر تأخیر در بازپرداخت وام در سایه ارتقایی عملکرد پروژهها استخراج شد.
Ensuring the timely allocation of necessary financial resources is a critical success factor for achieving optimal predominant project performance and one of the most important factors in the success of the investment. The National Development Fund of Iran has played a key role in financing many downstream oil and gas projects by granting facilities through the operating banks. In recent years, concerns have been raised by LC holders regarding delays and challenges in the fulfilment of obligations by the NDF, while the NDF is simultaneously suffering from delays in loan repayment. This vicious cycle, characterized by the non-fulfilment of obligations by the parties within civil partnership agreements, is identified as a significant challenge in petrochemical project management, prompting the need for this research. The research aims to discover policies to improve performance identifying Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) influencing the timely repayment of loans and the factors impacting these KPIs in the context of petrochemical project financing. Employing a Qualitative System Dynamics Modeling approach, the data was collected through twenty-nine semi-structured and in-depth individual or group interviews with experts in four organizational groups, including managers of the National Development Fund, operating banks, the National Petrochemical Company of Iran and eight petrochemical companies that had received loans from the National Development Fund. The collected data is rigorously analyzed using a grounded theory strategy. The findings reveal that Profitability (PI), Productivity (EI), Cost (CPI), and Schedule (SPI) are notable KPIs influencing the timely repayment of loans within the NDF financing system. In conclusion, the study extracts three policies aimed at enhancing project performance in order to mitigating the risk of loan repayment delays.
Key Words
Financing, National Development Fund (NDF), project performance, repayment of loan, performance of petrochemical projects, grounded theory
1.Introduction
Timely allocation of required financial resources is crucial for the success of any project. In recent years, with the limited presence of foreign investors in Iran, financing capital-intensive projects, such as petrochemical projects, has primarily been managed through loans provided by the National Development Fund of Iran, the country's largest financial institution. However, the failure to meet predetermined projects performance objectives often due to difficulties in securing financial resources, directly affects loan repayment timelines. This study, examines the behaviour of the project financing system managed by the National Development Fund, and identifies policy solutions to improve project performance aiming to reduce delays in loan repayments.
- Literature Review
In project financing, investors directly or indirectly rely on performance (Khan and Para, 2003) because achieving the predetermined performance significantly influences the timely return of their capital. Performance measurement is achieved through the identification of key performance indicators (KPI) (Deberdieva, 2015). Critical success factors (CSF) are factors that can enhance or diminish project performance by impacting these indicators. Extensive research exists in both fields. As a result of literature review, scheduling, cost, quality, productivity, health and safety, profitability and satisfaction of stakeholders were identified as the most critical KPIs. While various factors influence projects performance and success, the most important success factors are identified to be financing method and the availability of a sufficient budget (Tinnirello, 2001; Chan, Scott & Chan, 2004; Westland, 2007; Shao & Müller, 2011; Jamali, 2018)
- Methodology
Due to the complexity of the research problem and the cause-and-effect relationships between influencing factors, the qualitative method of systems dynamics was chosen as the primary approach for this study. Following a review of the research literature, 29 in-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted with the senior managers from the National Development Fund (NDF), operating banks, petrochemical companies that received NDF funding, and the National Petrochemical Company of Iran. Additionally, existing documents including contracts, progress reports, and requests of deadline were reviewed. The data were analyzed using Grounded Theory (GT) and qualitative modeling was performed using Vensim software.
- Result
The study revealed that among the key performance indicators identified from the literature, four have the most significant impact on loan repayment time. Additionally, within the NDF financing system, 15 factors were found to substantially influence these KPIs. Ultimately, three policy solutions were identified for investors to implement, which can enhance project performance and reduce loan repayment delays.
- Discussion
Enhancing project performance impacts the return on investors' capital and is influenced by the project's financing system. To reduce delays in capital returns, it is recommended that investors analyze the behavior of the financing system and develop policy solutions. By implementing these policies, investors can assist project managers in achieving project goals and improving performance, thereby maximizing their benefits.
Conflict of interest: none
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