تحقیقی در حوزه جامعه شناسی اقتصادی: بررسی اثر رشد جمعیت و ساختار جمعیتی بر رشد اقتصادی در ایران

محمدرضا علیزاده امامزاده ¹ ( استادیار گروه معارف اسلامی، واحد مهاباد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، مهاباد، ایران [e-mail] )

تاریخ ارسال : 1399/10/30 تاریخ تایید : 1401/09/30

کلید واژه: رشد اقتصادی, رشد جمعیت, جامعه شناسی اقتصادی, ساختار سنی,

چکیده مقاله :

جامعه شناسی اقتصادی به مطالعه موضوعات اصلی اقتصادی بازارها، بنگاه های اقتصادی، مراکز صنعتی تا تولید، مصرف و توزیع می‌پردازد. تمرکز جامعه شناسی اقتصادی جدید بر نقش روابط و نهادها و ساخت اجتماعی در اقتصاد است. جمعیت به عنوان یکی از مصادیق جامعه شناسی اقتصادی و از عوامل مهم در فرآیند رشد و توسعه اقتصادی کشورها محسوب می‌شود. در کنار رشد جمعیت، ساختار سنی جمعیت نیز از طریق تغییر سهم جمعیت در سن کار، بر بازار کار و سرمایه انسانی اثرات مهم و تعیین‌کننده‌ای بر رشد اقتصادی دارد. در این مقاله به بررسی اثر رشد جمعیت بر رشد اقتصادی با تأکید بر ساختار جمعیتی ایران طی دوره 1394-1345 با استفاده از روش خود رگرسیون برداری مارکوف ـ سویچینگ پرداخته شده است. برآوردها برای سه گروه سنی 15-0 سال، 64-15 سال و بالای 64 سال و در 3 وضعیت (قبل از جنگ، دوران جنگ و دستور افزایش جمعیت، دوران بعد از بازسازی جنگ و دستور کاهش جمعیت) انجام شد. نتایج به دست آمده نشان داد که گروه جمعیتی 15-0 سال اثری را بر رشد اقتصادی در هیچ وضعی نداشته ،گروه جمعیتی 64-15 سال و بالای 64 سال و رشد جمعیت بر رشد اقتصادی در وضعیت 1 و 3 اثر مثبت بر رشد اقتصادی و در وضعیت 2 اثر منفی بر رشد اقتصادی داشته‌اند. با توجه به نتایج به دست آمده بایستی سیاست‌های صحیح جمعیتی در جهت حمایت و کمک به رشد اقتصادی و جلوگیری از بروز ناهماهنگی و عدم تعادل در بخش‌های مختلف اقتصادی اعمال شود.

چکیده انگلیسی :

Economic sociology studies the main economic issues of markets, enterprises, industrial centers to production, consumption and distribution. The focus of the new economic sociology is on the role of relationships and institutions and social construction in the economy. Population is considered as one of the important and key factors in the process of economic growth and development of countries. In addition to population growth, the age structure of the population also has important and decisive effects on economic growth by changing the share of the population in the working age. In this paper, the effect of population growth on economic growth with emphasis on the population structure of Iran during the period 1965-2014 has been studied using Markov-switching vector autoregression method. Estimates were made for the three age groups of 0-15 years, 15-64 years and over 64 years in 3 situations (before the war, during the war and the order to increase the population, the period after the war and the order to reduce the population). The results showed that the population group of 0-15 years had no effect on economic growth in any situation, the population group of 15-64 years and above 64 years and population growth on economic growth in position 1 and 3 had a positive effect on economic growth and In situation 2 (period of population growth and due to rising unemployment) have had a negative effect on economic growth. According to the results, the right population policies should be implemented to support and help economic growth and prevent inconsistencies and imbalances in various economic sectors.

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Bakhshi Dastjerdi, Rasoul, Khaki Najafabadi, Nahid (2011). Investigating the Impact of Population on Economic Growth in the Framework of Optimal Growth Pattern in Iranian Economy (1350-1386) Application of Genetic Algorithm, Journal of Economic Research, 46 (1): 1-22 (in Persian).

Behnam, Jamshid. (2005). General Demography, Tehran. Institute of Social Studies and Research (in Persian).

Fitras, Mohammad Hassan and Beheshtifar, Mahmoud. (2006). Determining the level of development of the provinces of the country and inequality between them during the years 1373-1383, Economic Quarterly, 2 (2) (in Persian).

Emadzadeh, Mostafa, Baktash, Forouzan. (2005). The effect of education on value added in industry, Knowledge and Development Quarterly, 16 (in Persian).

Etaat, Javad. (2011). Population and sustainable development in Iran. Social Welfare Quarterly, 11 (42): 7- 37 (in Persian).

Hajamini, M. (2015), The non-linear effect of population growth and linear effect of age structure on per capita income: A threshold dynamic panel structural mode, Economic Analysis and Policy, 46: 43-58.

Hatami, Abbas (2015). An Introduction to the Factors of Decline and Renewal of Economic Sociology, Quarterly Journal of Comparative Economics, 1 (1): 107-81(in Persian).

Khaki Najafabadi, Nahid, (2009). Theoretical and empirical study of the interaction between population growth and economic growth (Iranian economy 1350-1385 application of genetic algorithm). Master Thesis, Faculty of Economics, Management and Accounting, Yazd University (in Persian).

Mehrabian, Azadeh and Sedghi Sigarchi, Nazila (2010), The effect of population growth on economic growth in four income groups during the years (1985-2007), Economic Sciences, 13: 114-97 (in Persian).

Mohammadpour, Gholamreza, Bakhshi Dastjerdi, Rasoul, Jafari, Somayeh and Asnahashri, Hajar (2013), The effect of population age structure on economic growth in Iran, Journal of Economic Research, 48 (2): 224-201 (in Persian).

Mehregan, Nader and Rezaei, Ruhollah (2009), The effect of population age structure on economic growth, Economic Research of Iran, 13 (39): 146-137 (in Persian).

Miri, Neda., Madah, Majid. And Raghfar, Hussein. (2020). Aging and Economic Growth, Iranian Aging Quarterly, 13, 5: 626-637 (in Persian).

Panahi, Hussein., Abbasi Asl, Reza. (2013). investigating the effect of population age structure on the growth and development of high-income countries, Bi-Quarterly Journal of Economic Sociology and Development, 2 (1): 29-49 (in Persian).

An, C. B. and S. H. Jeon (2006), Demographic change and economic growth: An inverted-U shape relationship, Economics Letters, 92 (3): 447-454.

Azomahou, T. and T. Mishra (2008), Age dynamics and economic growth: Revisiting the nexus in a nonparametric setting, Economics Letters, 99 (1): 67-71.

Azomahou, T., Diebolt, C. and T. Mishra (2009), Spatial persistence of demographic shocks and economic growth, Journal of Macroeconomics, 31 (1): 98-127.

Bakhshi Dastjerdi, Rasoul, Khaki Najafabadi, Nahid (2011). Investigating the Impact of Population on Economic Growth in the Framework of Optimal Growth Pattern in Iranian Economy (1350-1386) Application of Genetic Algorithm, Journal of Economic Research, 46 (1): 1-22 (in Persian).

Behnam, Jamshid. (2005). General Demography, Tehran. Institute of Social Studies and Research (in Persian).

Fang, Q. and C. K. Leong (2014), Impact of Population Growth and One Child Policy on Economic Growth of China, Available at SSRN 2464426, PP. 1-25.

Fitras, Mohammad Hassan and Beheshtifar, Mahmoud. (2006). Determining the level of development of the provinces of the country and inequality between them during the years 1373-1383, Economic Quarterly, 2 (2) (in Persian).

Emadzadeh, Mostafa, Baktash, Forouzan. (2005). The effect of education on value added in industry, Knowledge and Development Quarterly, 16 (in Persian).

Etaat, Javad. (2011). Population and sustainable development in Iran. Social Welfare Quarterly, 11 (42): 7- 37 (in Persian).

Hajamini, M. (2015), The non-linear effect of population growth and linear effect of age structure on per capita income: A threshold dynamic panel structural mode, Economic Analysis and Policy, 46: 43-58.

Hatami, Abbas (2015). An Introduction to the Factors of Decline and Renewal of Economic Sociology, Quarterly Journal of Comparative Economics, 1 (1): 107-81(in Persian).

Khaki Najafabadi, Nahid, (2009). Theoretical and empirical study of the interaction between population growth and economic growth (Iranian economy 1350-1385 application of genetic algorithm). Master Thesis, Faculty of Economics, Management and Accounting, Yazd University (in Persian).

Kelley, A. C. and R. M. Schmidt (1994), Population and Income Change: Recent Evidence, World Bank Discussion Paper, No. 249.

Kelley, A. C. and R. M. Schmidt (1995), Aggregate Population and Economic Growth Correlations: The Role of the Components of Demographic Change, Demography, 32 (4): 543-555.

Kuznets, S. (1955). Economic growth and income inequality. American Economic Review, 45: 1-28.

Phelps, E. (1961). The Golden Rule of Accumulation: AFable for GrowthMen. American Economic Review, 51 (4): 638-643.

Meade, James. (1963). The Rate of Profit in a Growing Economy. Economic Journal, 73 (292): 665-674.

Mehrabian, Azadeh and Sedghi Sigarchi, Nazila (2010), The effect of population growth on economic growth in four income groups during the years (1985-2007), Economic Sciences, 13: 114-97 (in Persian).

Mohammadpour, Gholamreza, Bakhshi Dastjerdi, Rasoul, Jafari, Somayeh and Asnahashri, Hajar (2013), The effect of population age structure on economic growth in Iran, Journal of Economic Research, 48 (2): 224-201 (in Persian).

Mehregan, Nader and Rezaei, Ruhollah (2009), The effect of population age structure on economic growth, Economic Research of Iran, 13 (39): 146-137 (in Persian).

Miri, Neda., Madah, Majid. And Raghfar, Hussein. (2020). Aging and Economic Growth, Iranian Aging Quarterly, 13, 5: 626-637 (in Persian).

Panahi, Hussein., Abbasi Asl, Reza. (2013). investigating the effect of population age structure on the growth and development of high-income countries, Bi-Quarterly Journal of Economic Sociology and Development, 2 (1): 29-49 (in Persian).

Solow, R. M. (1956). A contribution to the theory of economic growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1): 65-94.

Swan, T. (1956). Economic growth and capital accumulation. Economic Record, 32(2): 334-361.

Valli, V. and D. Saccone (2011), Economic development and population growth: an inverted-U shaped curve?, Departments of Economics Torino Working Paper, No. 5/2011.