ارائه مدلی برای پیش بینی سودآوری شرکت های داروسازی با استفاده از شبکه عصبی مصنوعی
محورهای موضوعی :
مدیریت صنعتی
Ali Habibi
1
(M.A. Student, Tabriz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran)
Ghaffar Tari
2
(Assistant Professor, Marand Branch, Islamic Azad University, Marand, Iran)
تاریخ دریافت : 1395/03/02
تاریخ پذیرش : 1395/06/28
تاریخ انتشار : 1395/06/18
کلید واژه:
Artificial Neural Network,
سودآوری,
profitability,
Modeling,
شبکه عصبی مصنوعی,
مدل سازی,
Pharmaceutical Companies,
شرکت های داروسازی,
چکیده مقاله :
هدف این تحقیق تدوین مدلی برای پیشبینی سودآوری شرکتهای داروسازی با استفاده از شبکه عصبی مصنوعی میباشد. روش تحقیق توصیفی- مدلسازی بوده و جامعه آماری این تحقیق کلیه شرکتهای داروسازی فعال عضو بورس اوراق بهادار به تعداد 21 شرکت میباشد. با توجه به محدود بودن جامعه آماری، هیچ گونه نمونهگیری انجام نشده و کل جامعه مورد پیمایش قرار گرفته است. برای جمع آوری دادهها از اسناد و مدارک شرکتهای داروسازی پذیرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران و برای تجزیه وتحلیل دادهها از شبکه عصبی مصنوعی استفاده شده است. نتایج بررسیها نشان میدهد که بهترین مدل پیشبینی سودآوری شرکتهای داروسازی با در نظر گرفتن متغیرهای سرمایه در گردش به کل داراییها، سود(زیان) انباشته به کل داراییها، سود قبل از بهره و مالیات به کل داراییها، ارزش بازار حقوق صاحبان سهام به ارزش دفتری بدهیها، فروش به کل داراییها و نقدینگی بدست آمده است.
چکیده انگلیسی:
The aim of this paper is to develop a model to predict the profitability of pharmaceutical companies using the artificial neural network. The research method was descriptive-modeling and statistical population included all active pharmaceutical companies of the Stock Exchange including 21 companies. Due to the limited population, no sampling was performed and the whole community was surveyed. The documents of pharmaceutical companies were used to data collection and artificial neural networks were used for data analysis. The results showed that the best model to predict the profitability of pharmaceutical companies is obtained by considering the variables of working capital to total assets, cumulative profit (loss) to total assets, earnings before interest and taxes to total assets, the market value of equity to the book value of debts, sales to total assets and liquidity.
منابع و مأخذ:
Zubairi, H.J. (2009). Linkage of Profitability with Key Financial and Economic Indicators: The Case of Pakistan’s Cement Industry, Pakistan Business Review, 11(3), 440-470.
Ahmadpour, A. & Ebrahimpour, M. (2011). The effect of the main indicators of financial and economic profitability (companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange). Journal of the Accounting and Auditing Review (66), 1-14.
BaharMoghadam, M. (2011). The effects of working capital management on the profitability of companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange. Management Accounting (10). 63-75.
Barati, A. (2004). The relationship between the level of disclosure and cost of equity capital, Master thesis, University of Allameh Tabatabai
Bariklu, A. (2008). The legal status of condition to guarantee profit. Law Quarterly. 38(4), 89-110.
Bhattacharyay, B. (2011). Bond Market Development in Asia: An Empirical Analysis of Major Determinants. ADBI Working Paper 300. Tokyo: Asian Development Bank Institute. http://www.adbi.org/workingpaper/2011/07/28/4659.bond.market.development.asia/
Bikker, J.A. & Metzemakers, P.A.J. (2005). Bank Provisioning Behavior and Procyclicality. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 15, 141-157.
Bolt, H.M. Marchan, R. & Hengstler, J.G. (2012). Recent developments in Nano toxicology. Arch Toxicol.
Bouvatier V, Lepetit L. (2008). Banksí procyclical behaviour: Does provisioning matter? Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money 18, 513-526.
Coad, A. and Rao, R., (2008). Innovation and firm growth in high-tech sectors: A quantile regression approach, Research Policy, 37, 633–648.
Darabi, R. & Molaei, M.A. (2011). The effects of liquidity, inflation, capital protection and GNP on profitability of Mellat bank. Financial knowledge of securities analysis. 4(10), 139-182.
Dastgir, M. & Talaneh, A. (2006). Profit, stock prices and option-based evaluation. Journal of the Accounting and Auditing Review. 13(46), 3-7.
Evans, O., Leone, A., Gill, M., Hilbers, P. (2003). Macroprudential indicators of financial system soundness, IMF Occasional Paper, 192, IMF.
Eljelly O. (2004). “Do Financial Constrain Hold Back Innovation and Growth? Evidence on the Role of Public policy”, Research Policy, 34.
Foster, R. (1986). Innovation: The Attacker’s Advantage, Summit Books, New York.
Jafari samimi, A. Khazaei, A. & Montazeri, J. (2013). The Impact of Financing Method on Profitability Growth among Iranian Firms. Economic Strategy (7), 81-106.
Jang, S. (2011). Growth-focused or profit-focused firms: Transitions toward profitable growth, Tourism Management, 32, 667- 674.
Hendriksen, E.S. & Van Breda, M.F. (2009). Accounting Theory (Volume 1). Translator: Parsaeeian, A. Termeh publication. 3rd edition.
Kanas, A., Vasiliou D. & Eriotis, N. (2013). Revisiting bank profitability: A semi-parametric approach, Int. Fin. Markets, Inst. and Money 22, 990– 1005.
Khajavi, Sh., Ghayuri Moghadam, A. & Ghaffari, M.J. (2010). Data Envelopment Analysis Technique: A complementary Method for Traditional Analysis of Financial Ratios. Journal of the Accounting and Auditing Review. 17(2), 41-56.
Laeven, L., Majnoni, G. (2003). Loan loss provisioning and economic slowdowns: too much, too late? Journal of Financial Intermediation 12, 178–197.
Majumdar, S. K.(1997). The Impact of Size and Age on Firm-Level Performance: Some Evidences from India. Review of Industrial Organization 12, 231–241.
Mirzaei, A., Moore, T. & Liu, G. (2013). Does market structure matter on banks’ profitability and stability? Emerging vs. advanced economies, Journal of Banking & Finance 37, 2920–2937.
Moradi, M.R. (2005). The relationship between stock prices and dividends payable and Earnings in Tehran Stock Exchange. Master thesis. Shahid Beheshti University.
Pourheydari, O. (2010). The Relationship between Accounting Variables and Stock Price Movements in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE). Journal of the Accounting and Auditing Review. 17(2), 23- 40.
Rietveld P, Schipper Y, Nijkamp P. Estimating welfare effects of European airline liberalization.(2001). Presented at the 9th World Conference on Transportation Research (WCTR) in Seoul, Korea in 2001, WCTR Paper No. 13.
Saeedi, P. & pagheh, I. (2011). The Study of Relationship between interest rate changes with stock returns and profitability of financial institutions in Tehran Stock Exchange. Financial knowledge of securities analysis, 4(9), 101-124.
Shabahang, R. (2008). Financial Management (volume 2). Audit organization publication.
Tarafi, Sh. (2006). The effect of size, type of industry and investment ratios on in predicting the repayment of loans by expert viewpoints of Saderat bank. Master thesis. Iran Banking Institute.
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Zubairi, H.J. (2009). Linkage of Profitability with Key Financial and Economic Indicators: The Case of Pakistan’s Cement Industry, Pakistan Business Review, 11(3), 440-470.
Ahmadpour, A. & Ebrahimpour, M. (2011). The effect of the main indicators of financial and economic profitability (companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange). Journal of the Accounting and Auditing Review (66), 1-14.
BaharMoghadam, M. (2011). The effects of working capital management on the profitability of companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange. Management Accounting (10). 63-75.
Barati, A. (2004). The relationship between the level of disclosure and cost of equity capital, Master thesis, University of Allameh Tabatabai
Bariklu, A. (2008). The legal status of condition to guarantee profit. Law Quarterly. 38(4), 89-110.
Bhattacharyay, B. (2011). Bond Market Development in Asia: An Empirical Analysis of Major Determinants. ADBI Working Paper 300. Tokyo: Asian Development Bank Institute. http://www.adbi.org/workingpaper/2011/07/28/4659.bond.market.development.asia/
Bikker, J.A. & Metzemakers, P.A.J. (2005). Bank Provisioning Behavior and Procyclicality. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 15, 141-157.
Bolt, H.M. Marchan, R. & Hengstler, J.G. (2012). Recent developments in Nano toxicology. Arch Toxicol.
Bouvatier V, Lepetit L. (2008). Banksí procyclical behaviour: Does provisioning matter? Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money 18, 513-526.
Coad, A. and Rao, R., (2008). Innovation and firm growth in high-tech sectors: A quantile regression approach, Research Policy, 37, 633–648.
Darabi, R. & Molaei, M.A. (2011). The effects of liquidity, inflation, capital protection and GNP on profitability of Mellat bank. Financial knowledge of securities analysis. 4(10), 139-182.
Dastgir, M. & Talaneh, A. (2006). Profit, stock prices and option-based evaluation. Journal of the Accounting and Auditing Review. 13(46), 3-7.
Evans, O., Leone, A., Gill, M., Hilbers, P. (2003). Macroprudential indicators of financial system soundness, IMF Occasional Paper, 192, IMF.
Eljelly O. (2004). “Do Financial Constrain Hold Back Innovation and Growth? Evidence on the Role of Public policy”, Research Policy, 34.
Foster, R. (1986). Innovation: The Attacker’s Advantage, Summit Books, New York.
Jafari samimi, A. Khazaei, A. & Montazeri, J. (2013). The Impact of Financing Method on Profitability Growth among Iranian Firms. Economic Strategy (7), 81-106.
Jang, S. (2011). Growth-focused or profit-focused firms: Transitions toward profitable growth, Tourism Management, 32, 667- 674.
Hendriksen, E.S. & Van Breda, M.F. (2009). Accounting Theory (Volume 1). Translator: Parsaeeian, A. Termeh publication. 3rd edition.
Kanas, A., Vasiliou D. & Eriotis, N. (2013). Revisiting bank profitability: A semi-parametric approach, Int. Fin. Markets, Inst. and Money 22, 990– 1005.
Khajavi, Sh., Ghayuri Moghadam, A. & Ghaffari, M.J. (2010). Data Envelopment Analysis Technique: A complementary Method for Traditional Analysis of Financial Ratios. Journal of the Accounting and Auditing Review. 17(2), 41-56.
Laeven, L., Majnoni, G. (2003). Loan loss provisioning and economic slowdowns: too much, too late? Journal of Financial Intermediation 12, 178–197.
Majumdar, S. K.(1997). The Impact of Size and Age on Firm-Level Performance: Some Evidences from India. Review of Industrial Organization 12, 231–241.
Mirzaei, A., Moore, T. & Liu, G. (2013). Does market structure matter on banks’ profitability and stability? Emerging vs. advanced economies, Journal of Banking & Finance 37, 2920–2937.
Moradi, M.R. (2005). The relationship between stock prices and dividends payable and Earnings in Tehran Stock Exchange. Master thesis. Shahid Beheshti University.
Pourheydari, O. (2010). The Relationship between Accounting Variables and Stock Price Movements in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE). Journal of the Accounting and Auditing Review. 17(2), 23- 40.
Rietveld P, Schipper Y, Nijkamp P. Estimating welfare effects of European airline liberalization.(2001). Presented at the 9th World Conference on Transportation Research (WCTR) in Seoul, Korea in 2001, WCTR Paper No. 13.
Saeedi, P. & pagheh, I. (2011). The Study of Relationship between interest rate changes with stock returns and profitability of financial institutions in Tehran Stock Exchange. Financial knowledge of securities analysis, 4(9), 101-124.
Shabahang, R. (2008). Financial Management (volume 2). Audit organization publication.
Tarafi, Sh. (2006). The effect of size, type of industry and investment ratios on in predicting the repayment of loans by expert viewpoints of Saderat bank. Master thesis. Iran Banking Institute.
