ارزیابی مدل قیمت فرآورده های نفتی در ایران
محورهای موضوعی :
مدیریت صنعتی
ramiar refaei
1
,
Mostafa Baghbanyan
2
1 - islamic azad university of khorasgan, isfahan
2 - department of economics,islamicazad university of sanandaj
تاریخ دریافت : 1397/07/01
تاریخ پذیرش : 1398/03/01
تاریخ انتشار : 1398/04/11
کلید واژه:
نفت خام,
نرخ ارز,
قیمت فرآورده های نفتی,
همگرایی,
چکیده مقاله :
از عوامل بسیار مهم در تعیین قیمت فرآورده های نفتی می توان به قیمت نفت خام و نرخ ارز اشاره کرد. نفت خام نهاده اصلی پالایشگاهها در تولید فرآورده های نفتی است و تغییرات نرخ ارز هم قیمت مورد انتظار تولیدکنندگان و تقاضا کننده ها و در نهایت فرآورده های نفتی را تحت تاثیر قرار می دهد، در این مقاله با بهره گیری از عوامل تاثیر گذار، با استفاده از روش همگرایی(FMOLS, CCR, DOLS) و برای دوره زمانی۱۳۹۲-۱۳۷۶ مدل قیمت فرآورده های نفتی مورد ارزیابی قرار می گیرد. نتایج برآورد نشان داد که در سه مدل( غیر از مدلی که نفت کوره به عنوان متغیر وابسته قرار می گرفت) قیمت نفت خام اثرات مثبت و معنی داری بر قیمت فرآورده های نفتی در بلند مدت دارد و در هر چهار مدل نرخ ارز اثرات مثبت معنی داری بر قیمت فرآورده های نفتی در ایران دارد. نتایج کوتاه مدت نیز نشان می دهد که روند حرکت متغیرها به سمت تعادل بلند مدت رضایت بخش می باشد. از نکات دیگر مورد بررسی در مقاله مقایسه اثر نسبی این دو متغیر بر قیمت فرآورده های نفتی می باشد که نتایج نشان می دهد ضریب نرخ ارز در مدلها بزرگتر از ضریب قیمت نفت خام است یعنی هر افزایشی در قیمت نفت خام، قیمت فرآورده ها را نسبت به نرخ ارز، بیشتر افزایش می دهد. بنابراین برای اقتصاد ایران تثبیت نرخ ارز و کاهش نوسانات آن، روند با ثبات تری در قیمت فرآورده های نفتی ایجاد خواهد کرد.
چکیده انگلیسی:
Abstract:One of the most important factors in determining the price of oil products is the price of crude oil and the exchange rate. Crude oil is the main source of refiners in the production of petroleum products, and exchange rate changes are expected to be expected by producers and demanders, and ultimately oil products. In this paper, taking advantage of influential factors, using The convergence approach (FMOLS, CCR, DOLS) and for the period 1969-1999, the oil price model is evaluated. The estimated results showed that in three models (except for the model of furnace as dependent variable), the price of crude oil has a positive and significant effect on the price of long-term oil products, and in all four models, the exchange rate has positive effects of meaning You have the price of oil products in Iran. Short-term results also indicate that the process of moving the variables toward satisfactory long-term equilibrium is satisfactory. Among the other points examined in the paper is the comparison of the relative effect of these two variables on the price of oil products, which indicate that the exchange rate coefficient in the models is larger than the crude oil price coefficient, ie any increase in the price of crude oil, the price of the products to the exchange rate, will further increase. Therefore, for the Iranian economy, stabilizing the exchange rate and reducing its fluctuations will create a more stable trend in the price of oil products.
منابع و مأخذ:
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Asplund, M., Eriksson, R., Friberg, R., (2000). Price adjustments by a gasoline retail chain. Scand. J. Econ. 102, 101–121.
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Bacon, R.W. (1991). Rockets and feathers: the asymmetric speed of adjustment of U.K. retail gasoline prices to cost changes. Energy Econ. 13, 211–218.
Balke, N.S., Brown, S.P.A., Yucel, M. (1998). Crude oil and gasoline prices: an asymmetric relationship? Econ. Financ. Policy Rev. Q1, 2–11.
Borenstein, S., Shepard, A. (2002). Sticky prices, inventories, and marke power in wholesale gasoline markets. Rand Journal of Economics 33, 116 139.
Chou, K., 2012. Price adjustment in Taiwan retail gasoline market. Int. J. Econ. Financ. 4, 132–140
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Galeotti, M., Lanza, A., Manera, M. (2003). Rockets and feathers revisited: an international comparison on European gasoline markets. Energy Econ. 25, 175–190
Godby, R., Lintner, A.M., Stegnos, T., Wandschneider, B. (2000). Testing for asymmetric pricing in the Canadian retail gasoline market. Energy Econ. 22, 349–368.
Hakan Berument, M and Sahin, A, Sahin, S. (2014). The relative effects of crude oil price and exchange rate on petroleum product prices: Evidence from a set of Northern Mediterranean countries, Economic modelling, 243-249
Jalali Naieni, A. (2009). Investigating the relationship between the price of crude oil and the price of petroleum products in European and American markets. Quarterly Journal of Energy Economics. NO 22.
Kirchgassner, G., Kubler, K. (1992). Symmetric or asymmetric price adjustments in the oil market: an empirical analysis of the relations between international and domestic prices in the Federal Republic of Germany. Energy Econ. 14, 171–185.
Norman, Donald A., David, Shin (1991). Price adjustment in gasoline and heating oil markets. American Petroleum Institute Research Study No. 60, Washington.
OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin (2000,2004,2008,2014), www.opec.org,
Pindyck, R. (2001). The dynamics of commodity spot and future markets: a primer. Energy J., 22, 1-29.
Radchenko, S., 2005. Oil price volatility and the asymmetric response of gasoline prices to oil price increases and decreases. Energy Econ. 27, 708–730.
Reilly, B., Witt, R. (1998). Petrol price asymmetries revisited. Energy Econ. 20, 297–308
Salas, J. M. I. S. (2002). Asymmetric price adjustments and a deregulated gasoline market. Philippine Review of Economics 39, 38–7.
Shahraki, J., Moradi, H. (2014). The determinants of the real exchange rate, with emphasis on oil prices for Comparison of exporting and importing countries. Quarterly journal of Energy Economics Studies.40, 65-93.
Yearbook of National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company, (NIORDC). http://www.niordc.ir
_||_
Abosadra, S., Radchenko, S., (2006). New evidence on the asymmetry in gasolin price: volatility versus margin? OPEC Review X (3), 125-150.
Asplund, M., Eriksson, R., Friberg, R., (2000). Price adjustments by a gasoline retail chain. Scand. J. Econ. 102, 101–121.
Bachmeier, L., Griffin, J. (2003). New evidence on asymmetric gasoline price responses. Rev. Econ. Stat. 85, 772–776.
Bacon, R.W. (1991). Rockets and feathers: the asymmetric speed of adjustment of U.K. retail gasoline prices to cost changes. Energy Econ. 13, 211–218.
Balke, N.S., Brown, S.P.A., Yucel, M. (1998). Crude oil and gasoline prices: an asymmetric relationship? Econ. Financ. Policy Rev. Q1, 2–11.
Borenstein, S., Shepard, A. (2002). Sticky prices, inventories, and marke power in wholesale gasoline markets. Rand Journal of Economics 33, 116 139.
Chou, K., 2012. Price adjustment in Taiwan retail gasoline market. Int. J. Econ. Financ. 4, 132–140
Davis, M. C., and Hamilton, J. D. (2004). Why are prices sticky? The dynamics of wholesale gasoline prices. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 36, 17–37.
Galeotti, M., Lanza, A., Manera, M. (2003). Rockets and feathers revisited: an international comparison on European gasoline markets. Energy Econ. 25, 175–190
Godby, R., Lintner, A.M., Stegnos, T., Wandschneider, B. (2000). Testing for asymmetric pricing in the Canadian retail gasoline market. Energy Econ. 22, 349–368.
Hakan Berument, M and Sahin, A, Sahin, S. (2014). The relative effects of crude oil price and exchange rate on petroleum product prices: Evidence from a set of Northern Mediterranean countries, Economic modelling, 243-249
Jalali Naieni, A. (2009). Investigating the relationship between the price of crude oil and the price of petroleum products in European and American markets. Quarterly Journal of Energy Economics. NO 22.
Kirchgassner, G., Kubler, K. (1992). Symmetric or asymmetric price adjustments in the oil market: an empirical analysis of the relations between international and domestic prices in the Federal Republic of Germany. Energy Econ. 14, 171–185.
Norman, Donald A., David, Shin (1991). Price adjustment in gasoline and heating oil markets. American Petroleum Institute Research Study No. 60, Washington.
OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin (2000,2004,2008,2014), www.opec.org,
Pindyck, R. (2001). The dynamics of commodity spot and future markets: a primer. Energy J., 22, 1-29.
Radchenko, S., 2005. Oil price volatility and the asymmetric response of gasoline prices to oil price increases and decreases. Energy Econ. 27, 708–730.
Reilly, B., Witt, R. (1998). Petrol price asymmetries revisited. Energy Econ. 20, 297–308
Salas, J. M. I. S. (2002). Asymmetric price adjustments and a deregulated gasoline market. Philippine Review of Economics 39, 38–7.
Shahraki, J., Moradi, H. (2014). The determinants of the real exchange rate, with emphasis on oil prices for Comparison of exporting and importing countries. Quarterly journal of Energy Economics Studies.40, 65-93.
Yearbook of National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company, (NIORDC). http://www.niordc.ir
