طبقه‌بندی ریسک‌های کلیدی پروژه‌های ساختمانی ایران با استفاده از مدل‌سازی معادلات ساختاری

محورهای موضوعی : مدیریت صنعتی

Kajal Zarei ¹ (Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Islamic Azad University, Sanandaj Branch, Sanandaj, Iran.)
Bahareh Mohebban ² (PhD student at Department of Industrial Management, Faculty of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.)
Alireza Esmaeilzadeh ³ (MSc. in Industrial Management, Faculty of Management and Accounting, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran.)
Ahmad Jamalian ⁴ (MSc. in industrial Management, Faculty of Economic & Administrative Sciences, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran.)

تاریخ دریافت : 1397/09/02 تاریخ پذیرش : 1397/11/04 تاریخ انتشار : 1397/11/25

کلید واژه: مدیریت ریسک پروژه, مدل‌سازی معادلات ساختاری, تحلیل عاملی, پروژه‌های ساختمانی,

چکیده مقاله :

مدیریت ریسک پروژه یک جزء حیاتی از مدیریت پروژه به‌عنوان یک ریسک محسوب می‌شود که اگر به‌خوبی مدیریت نشود ممکن است به شکست پروژه منجر شود. در این راستا، هدف این پژوهش طبقه‌بندی ریسک‌های کلیدی پروژه‌های ساختمانی ایرانی توسط مدل‌سازی معادلات ساختاری بوده است. برای این کار پس از بررسی ادبیات نظری پژوهش 28 شاخص برای ارزیابی ریسک پروژه‌های ساختمانی شناسایی شدند. سپس پرسشنامه‌ای بین خبرگان موجود در صنعت ساخت‌وساز توزیع گردید و بر اساس 239 پرسشنامه به‌دست‌آمده مدل مفهومی ریسک پروژه‌های ساختمانی با روش تحلیل عاملی تأییدی برآورد شد و شاخص‌های ریسک پروژه در پنج گروه محیط، کیفیت، هزینه، زمان و ایمنی عامل بندی شدند. نتایج نشان دادند که اولویت ابعاد ریسک پروژه‌های ساختمانی به ترتیب ریسک‌های مرتبط با زمان؛ ریسک‌های مرتبط با هزینه؛ ریسک‌های مرتبط با کیفیت؛ ریسک‌های مرتبط با محیط؛ و ریسک‌های مرتبط با ایمنی است. نتایج پژوهش مدلی جامع برای ریسک پروژه‌های ساختمانی ارائه کرده است که می‌تواند مورداستفاده مدیران پروژه و پژوهشگران قرار گیرد.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Project Risk Management is a critical component of project management as risks that are not well-managed may lead to project failures. This study aims to classify Iranian’s Construction Projects key risks by using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) technique. At first, based on a comprehensive literature review 28 indicators were identified to recognize the construction projects risk. Thereafter, a questionnaire was distributed amongst the experts of construction industry, and finally 239 questionnaires were collected. In the next step, the model of construction projects risks was estimated by using of Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) which the indicators explained five latent variables (Environmental, Quality, Cost, Time and Safety related factors). The results presented that priorities of the indicator of “Construction Projects Risks” are “Time Risk”, “Cost Risk”, “Quality Risk”, “Environment Risk” and “Safety Risk”, respectively. Furthermore, the results of the research provided a comprehensive model for the construction projects risks, which it can be used by scholars and project managers.

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