تست و اعتبارسنجی روش مدلسازی گروهی با مدل مرجع
محورهای موضوعی : مدیریت صنعتیAli Haji Gholam Saryazdi 1 , Manuchehr Manteghi 2
1 - Ph.D Candidate / TMU
2 - Professor, Department of Management, Faculty of Management, Malek Ashtar University
کلید واژه: اعتبارسنجی مدل, رویکرد نسبت فاصله, مدلسازی گروهی, مدل مرجع, رویکرد پویایی شناسی سیستم‌های کیفی,
چکیده مقاله :
در سال های اخیر در جامعه سیستم داینامیک توجه به رویکردهای سیستم داینامیک کیفی افزایش یافته است. یکی از روش های استخراج مدل های سیستم داینامیک که در رویکردهای کیفی نیز استفاده فراوانی از آن شده است روش مدلسازی گروهی است که در آن مشتریان و صاحب نظران در فرایند مدلسازی مشارکت داده شده و مبتنی بر مدل های ذهنی افراد مشارکت کننده به استخراج متغیرها و ساختارهای کلیدی و نهفته در سیستم می پردازند. در این میان بررسی و مقایسه مدل های حاصل از جلسات گروهی با مدل های مرجع حاصل از ادبیات موضوع می تواند روشی برای تست و ارزیابی مدل گروهی باشد و بینش های جدیدی را ایجاد کند. در این مقاله به ارزیابی و مقایسه مدل های استخراج شده از جلسات مدلسازی گروهی پروژه "طراحی پارک فناوری هوایی" با مدل مرجع حاصل از مطالعات ادبیات موضوع؛ با استفاده از رویکرد نسبت فاصله در سه سطح عناصر، سطح حلقه های علت و معلولی و سطح مدل کامل به منظور اعتبار سنجی مدل حاصل از مدلسازی گروهی می‌پردازیم. همانطور که از نتایج حاصل از رویکرد نسبت فاصله مشخص شد مقدار 84/6 MDR= بود که بیانگر این است که مدل حاصل از مدلسازی گروهی با مدل مرجع مطابق و همانند بودند. مقادیر EDR و LDR نیز بیانگر تشابه مدل در سطح عناصر و حلقه ها بودند. در نتیجه می توان گفت مدل حاصل از مدلسازی گروهی دارای اعتبار و با مطالعات ادبیات موضوع و مدل حاصل از آن تطابق دارد.
چکیده انگلیسی:
In recent years, in system dynamics society has increased attention to qualitative approaches. One method of extracting models of qualitative system dynamics has been many used is a Group Model Building. In this method, clients are involved in the modeling process. Based on Participants mental models are extracted key structures and latent variables in the system. In this regard, compare the group models with reference models from the literature can be a way to test and evaluate a model. And provide new insights. In this paper we evaluate and compare models of group modeling sessions extracted from the project "Designing Aviation Technology Park" with the reference model derived from the literature review, by using the distance ratio approach of three levels, including the elements, the causal loops and the full model level. As became clear from the results of this approach the MDR = 6.84 which indicates that the model as the reference model and the group models were similar. EDR and LDR values indicate between model elements and the loops level were similar. In conclusion we can say that the model is a valid model and the resulting models are consistent with other studies in the literature.
منابع و مأخذ:
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Andersen, D. F., Richardson, G.P., Vennix, J.A.M. (1997). Group Model Building: Adding More Science to the Craft. System Dynamics Review, 13 (2),187-201.
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De Geus AP. (1988). Planning as learning. Harvard Business Review, (March/April): 70-74.
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Forrester, J.W. (1992). Policies, decisions and information-sources for modeling. European Journal of Operational Research, 59 (1), 42–63.
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Haji Gholam Saryazdi, A., Manteghi, M., Zare Mehrjardi, Y. (2013). System Dynamics. Almase Alborz Press, Tehran, Iran.
Haji Gholam Saryazdi, A., Rajabzadeh Ghatari, A., Mashayekhi, A.N., Hassanzadeh, A. (2019). Crowd Model Building as a Collective Decision Support System, International Journal of System Dynamics Applications (IJSDA), 8(3) 13-26
Haji Gholam Saryazdi, A., Rajabzadeh Ghatari, A., Mashayekhi, A.N., Hassanzadeh, A. (2017). The Dilemma of the Dynamic Problems: Provide a Framework for the Process of Problem Definition, The Modares Journal of Management Research in Iran, 21(2), 1-26.
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Hosseinichimeh, N., et. al. (2017). Group Model Building Techniques for Rapid Elicitation of Parameter Values, Effect Sizes, and Data Sources. System Dynamics Review, 33(1), 71-84.
Johnson-Laird, P.N. (1999). Deductive reasoning. Annual Review of Psychology, 50, 109–135.
Johnson-Laird, P.N. (2001). Mental models and deduction. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 4 (10), 434–442.
Jonson, T.E., O’Connor, D.L. (2008). Measuring team shared understanding using the analysis-constructed shared mental model methodology. Performance Improvement Quarterly, 21 (3), 113–135.
Kampmann, C.E. (1996). Feedback loop gains and system behavior. In: Richardson, G.P., Sterman, J.D. (Eds.), 1996 International System Dynamics Conference. The System Dynamics Society, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Lane DC. (1989). Modelling as learning: creating models to enhance learning amongst management decision makers. Paper presented at the European Simulation Conference, Edinburgh.
Lane DC. (1993). The road not taken: observing a process of issue selection and model conceptualization. System Dynamics Review, 9(3), 239-264.
Langan-Fox, J., Code, S., Langfield-Smith, K. (2000). Team mental models: Techniques, methods, and analytic approaches. Human Factors, 42 (2), 242–271.
Langan-Fox, J., Wirth, A., Code, S., Langfield-Smith, K., Wirth, A. (2001). Analyzing shared and team mental models. International Journal of Industrial Ergonomics, 28 (2), 99-
Langfield-Smith, K., Wirth, A. (1992). Measuring differences between cognitive maps. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 43 (12), 1135–1150.
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Markoczy, L. (2000). National culture and strategic change in belief formation. Journal of International Business Studies, 31 (3), 427–442.
Markóczy, L., Goldberg, J. (1995). A method for eliciting and comparing causal maps. Journal of Management, 21 (2), 305–333.
Mashayekhi, A.N. (2017). System Dynamics. Ariana Publishing, Tehran, Iran.
McGaghie, W.C., McCrimmon, D.R., Mitchell, G., Thompson, J.A., Ravitch, M.M. (2000). Quantitative concept mapping in pulmonary physiology: Comparison of student and faculty knowledge structures. Advances in Physiology Education, 23 (1), 72–81.
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Morecroft JDW, Sterman JD (eds). (1992/1994). Modelling for Learning. Special issue of the European Journal of Operational Research (Also published as: Morecroft JDW).
Morecroft JDW. (1992). Executive knowledge, models and learning. In Modelling for Learning, special issue of the European Journal of Operational Research (Morecroft JDW, Sterman JD (eds)) 59(1), 9-27.
Oliva, R. (2004). Model structure analysis through graph theory: Partition heuristics and feedback structure decomposition. System Dynamics Review, 20 (4), 313–336.
Plate, R. (2010). Assessing individuals’ understanding of nonlinear causal structures in complex systems. System Dynamics Review, 26 (1), 19–33.
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Richardson, G.P., Andersen, D.F. (1995). Teamwork in group model building. System Dynamics Review, 11 (2), 113–137.
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Schaffernicht, M., Groesser, S.N. (2011). A comprehensive method for comparing mental models of dynamic systems, European Journal of Operational Research. 210 (2011), 57–67.
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Weber, M., Schwaninger, M. (2002). Transforming an agricultural trade organization: A system-dynamics-based intervention. System Dynamics Review, 18 (3), 381–401.
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Wolstenholme EF. (1982). System dynamics in perspective. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 33, 547-556.
Wolstenholme EF. (1990). System Enquiry, A System Dynamics Approach. Wiley: Chichester.
Wolstenholme EF. (1999). Qualitative vs quantitative modelling: the evolving balance. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 50, 422-428.
Woog, R., Cavana, R.Y., Roberts, R., Packham, R. (2006). Working at the interface between systems and complexity thinking: Insights from a market access design project for poor livestock producers. Systems Research and Behavioral Science, 23 (6), 727–741.
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Ackoff RA. (1974). Redesigning the Future: A Systems Approach to Societal Problems. Wiley: New York.
Andersen, D. F., Richardson, G.P., Vennix, J.A.M. (1997). Group Model Building: Adding More Science to the Craft. System Dynamics Review, 13 (2),187-201.
Bosch, O.J.H., Ross, A.H., Beeton, R.J.S. (2003). Integrating science and management through collaborative learning and better information management. Systems Research and Behavioral Science, 20 (2), 107–118.
Capelo, C., Dias, J.F. (2009). A system dynamics-based simulation experiment for testing mental model and performance effects of using the balanced scorecard. System Dynamics Review, 25 (1), 1–34.
Coyle R. G. (1999). Qualitative modelling in system dynamics or what are the wise limits of quantification? Keynote address to the conference of the System Dynamics Society. Wellington, New Zealand.
De Geus AP. (1988). Planning as learning. Harvard Business Review, (March/April): 70-74.
Doyle, J.K., Ford, D.N. (1999). Mental models concepts revisited: Some clarifications and a reply to lane. System Dynamics Review, 15 (4), 411–415.
Doyle, J.K., Radzicki, M.J., Trees, W.S. (1996). Measuring the Effect of System Thinking Interventions on Mental Models. In: Paper presented at the 1996 International System Dynamics Conference, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Doyle, J.K., Radzicki, M.J., Trees, W.S. (2008). Measuring change in mental models of complex dynamic systems. In: Qudrat-Ullah, H., Spector, M.J., Davidsen, P. (Eds.), Complex Decision Making: Theory and Practice. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, pp. 269–294.
Elias, A.A. (2008). Group Model Building: Energy Efficiency in New Zealand's Residential Sector. Proceedings of the 6th Annual Australian and New Zealand Academy of Management Operations Management Symposium (Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia).
Fokkinga, B., Bleijenberg, I., Vennix, J.A.M. (2009). Group model building evaluation in single cases: A method to assess changes in mental models. In: Paper presented at the 27th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, New Mexico, USA.
Forrest, J. (2010). Welcome to the Qualitative System Dynamics Web Site, Last updated - August 16, 2010, http://jayfor.site.aplus.net/qualsd.
Forrester, J.W. (1961). Industrial Dynamics. Productivity Press, Cambridge, MA.
Forrester, J.W. (1968). Principles of Systems. The MIT Press, Cambridge.
Forrester, J.W. (1987). Lessons from system dynamics modelling. System Dynamics Review, 3(2),136-149.
Forrester, J.W. (1992). Policies, decisions and information-sources for modeling. European Journal of Operational Research, 59 (1), 42–63.
Gary, M.S. (2008). Mental models and performance in complex, dynamic decision environments. In: Paper presented at the Proceedings of the Academy of Management Conference, Anaheim, USA.
Greenberger M., Crenson MA., Crissey BL. (1976). Models in the Policy Process: Public Decision Making in the Computer Era. Russell Sage Foundation: New York.
Haji Gholam Saryazdi, A. (2013). Designing of the Aviation Technology Park by Using System Dynamics Approach. MBA Thesis, University of Science and Culture, Tehran, Iran.
Haji Gholam Saryazdi, A., Ghavidel, M. (2018). The Waste Management in a Wire and Cable Company through System Dynamics Approach, International Journal of Quality & Reliability Management, Vol. 35, Issue 7, https://doi.org/10.1108/IJQRM-05-2017-0102.
Haji Gholam Saryazdi, A., Manteghi, M., Zare Mehrjardi, Y. (2013). System Dynamics. Almase Alborz Press, Tehran, Iran.
Haji Gholam Saryazdi, A., Rajabzadeh Ghatari, A., Mashayekhi, A.N., Hassanzadeh, A. (2019). Crowd Model Building as a Collective Decision Support System, International Journal of System Dynamics Applications (IJSDA), 8(3) 13-26
Haji Gholam Saryazdi, A., Rajabzadeh Ghatari, A., Mashayekhi, A.N., Hassanzadeh, A. (2017). The Dilemma of the Dynamic Problems: Provide a Framework for the Process of Problem Definition, The Modares Journal of Management Research in Iran, 21(2), 1-26.
Halbe, J. (2010). Potential of Group Model Building in Environmental Management. 21st MIT-UAlbany-WPI System Dynamics Ph.D. Colloquium, Friday, October 29, 2010, University at Albany, State University of New York.
Hine, D.H., Montiel, C.J., Cooksey, R.W., Lewko, J.H. (2005). Mental models of poverty in developing nations – A causal mapping analysis using a Canada–Philippines contrast. Journal of Cross-Cultural Psychology, 36 (3), 283–303.
Hodgson, A.M. (1992). Hexagons for system thinking, in: J.D.W. Morecroft and J.D. Sterman, Modeling for learning, special issue of European Journal of Operational Research, 59(1), 220-230.
Hosseinichimeh, N., et. al. (2017). Group Model Building Techniques for Rapid Elicitation of Parameter Values, Effect Sizes, and Data Sources. System Dynamics Review, 33(1), 71-84.
Johnson-Laird, P.N. (1999). Deductive reasoning. Annual Review of Psychology, 50, 109–135.
Johnson-Laird, P.N. (2001). Mental models and deduction. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 4 (10), 434–442.
Jonson, T.E., O’Connor, D.L. (2008). Measuring team shared understanding using the analysis-constructed shared mental model methodology. Performance Improvement Quarterly, 21 (3), 113–135.
Kampmann, C.E. (1996). Feedback loop gains and system behavior. In: Richardson, G.P., Sterman, J.D. (Eds.), 1996 International System Dynamics Conference. The System Dynamics Society, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Lane DC. (1989). Modelling as learning: creating models to enhance learning amongst management decision makers. Paper presented at the European Simulation Conference, Edinburgh.
Lane DC. (1993). The road not taken: observing a process of issue selection and model conceptualization. System Dynamics Review, 9(3), 239-264.
Langan-Fox, J., Code, S., Langfield-Smith, K. (2000). Team mental models: Techniques, methods, and analytic approaches. Human Factors, 42 (2), 242–271.
Langan-Fox, J., Wirth, A., Code, S., Langfield-Smith, K., Wirth, A. (2001). Analyzing shared and team mental models. International Journal of Industrial Ergonomics, 28 (2), 99-
Langfield-Smith, K., Wirth, A. (1992). Measuring differences between cognitive maps. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 43 (12), 1135–1150.
Maani, K., Cavana, R. (2000). Systems Thinking and Modelling – Understanding Change and Complexity. New Zealand: Pearson Education.
Maani, K.E., Cavana, R.Y. (2007). Systems Thinking, softcover ed., System Dynamics: Managing Change and Complexity Pearson Education, New Zealand.
Markoczy, L. (1997). Measuring beliefs: Accept no substitutes. Academy of Management Journal, 40 (5), 1228–1242.
Markoczy, L. (2000). National culture and strategic change in belief formation. Journal of International Business Studies, 31 (3), 427–442.
Markóczy, L., Goldberg, J. (1995). A method for eliciting and comparing causal maps. Journal of Management, 21 (2), 305–333.
Mashayekhi, A.N. (2017). System Dynamics. Ariana Publishing, Tehran, Iran.
McGaghie, W.C., McCrimmon, D.R., Mitchell, G., Thompson, J.A., Ravitch, M.M. (2000). Quantitative concept mapping in pulmonary physiology: Comparison of student and faculty knowledge structures. Advances in Physiology Education, 23 (1), 72–81.
Meadows, D. H., Robinson, J.M. (1985). The Electronic Oracle, Computer Models and Social Decision. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.
Morecroft JDW, Sterman JD (eds). (1992/1994). Modelling for Learning. Special issue of the European Journal of Operational Research (Also published as: Morecroft JDW).
Morecroft JDW. (1992). Executive knowledge, models and learning. In Modelling for Learning, special issue of the European Journal of Operational Research (Morecroft JDW, Sterman JD (eds)) 59(1), 9-27.
Oliva, R. (2004). Model structure analysis through graph theory: Partition heuristics and feedback structure decomposition. System Dynamics Review, 20 (4), 313–336.
Plate, R. (2010). Assessing individuals’ understanding of nonlinear causal structures in complex systems. System Dynamics Review, 26 (1), 19–33.
Richardson, G.P. (1999). Feedback thought in social science and systems theory. Pegasus Communications, Waltham, MA.
Richardson, G.P., Andersen, D.F. (1995). Teamwork in group model building. System Dynamics Review, 11 (2), 113–137.
Richardson, G.P., Pugh III, A.L. (1981). Introduction to System Dynamics Modeling with DYNAMO. Productivity Press, Cambridge, MA.
Ritchie-Dunham, J. (2002). Balanced Scorecards, Mental Models, and Organizational Performance: A Simulation Experiment. D. Thesis, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX.
Roberts EB. (1978). Strategies for effective implementation of complex corporate models. In Managerial applications of System Dynamics, Roberts EB (ed). MIT Press: Cambridge; 77-85.
Rouwette, E.A.J.A., Vennix, J.A.M., Van Mullekom, T. (2002). Group model building effectiveness: A review of assessment studies. System Dynamics Review, 18 (1), 5–45.
Rowe, A., Cooke, N. (1995). Measuring mental models: Choosing the right tools for the job. Human Resource Development Quarterly, 6 (3), 243–255.
Schaffernicht, M., Groesser, S.N. (2009). What’s in a mental model of a dynamic system? On the conceptual structure and approaches to model comparison. In: Paper presented at the 27th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, New Mexico, USA.
Schaffernicht, M., Groesser, S.N. (2011). A comprehensive method for comparing mental models of dynamic systems, European Journal of Operational Research. 210 (2011), 57–67.
Schvaneveldt, R. (1990). Pathfinder associative networks. In: Schvaneveldt, R. (Ed.), Studies in Knowledge Organization. Ablex, Norwood, NJ.
Senge, P.M. (1990). The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization. Currency & Doubleday, New York.
Snabe, B., Grössler, A. (2006). System dynamics modelling for strategy implementation – Case study and issues. Systems Research and Behavioral Science, 23 (4), 467–481.
Sterman, J.D. (2000). Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. McGraw-Hill, Boston.
Sterman, J.D. (2008). Risk communication on climate: Mental models and mass balance. Science, 322 (24 October), 532–533.
Sweeney, L.B., Sterman, J.D. (2007). Thinking about systems: Student and teacher conceptions of natural and social systems. System Dynamics Review, 23 (2–3), 285–312.
Tsioptsias, N., Tako, A., & Robinson, S. (2016). Model Validation and Testing in Simulation: A Literature Review. 5th Student Conference on Operational Research, 16(6), 1-11. Germany: Open Access Series in Informatics.
Vennix, J. (1996). Group Model Building: Facilitating Team Learning Using System Dynamics. London: John Wiley & Sons, 1 edition (August 1996).
Vennix, J. (1999). Group model-building: tackling messy problems. System Dynamics Review, 15, 379-401.
Vennix, J.A.M., Scheper, W., Willems, R. (1993). Group model-building: what does the client think of it? system dynamics review, 1993.
Verburgh, L. (1994). Participative Policy Modeling Applied to the Health Care Insurance Industry. Doctorial Dissertation, University of Nijmegen, Nijmegen.
Weber, M., Schwaninger, M. (2002). Transforming an agricultural trade organization: A system-dynamics-based intervention. System Dynamics Review, 18 (3), 381–401.
Weil HB. (1980). The evolution of an approach for achieving implemented results from system dynamic projects. In Elements of the system dynamics method, Randers J (ed). MIT Press: Cambridge, MA; 271-291.
Wolstenholme EF. (1982). System dynamics in perspective. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 33, 547-556.
Wolstenholme EF. (1990). System Enquiry, A System Dynamics Approach. Wiley: Chichester.
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