Simulation of the climate change impact on monthly runoff of Dez watershed using IHACRES model
محورهای موضوعی : Irrigation and Drainageثریا صیاحی 1 , علی شهبازی 2 , خیراله خادمی 3
1 - دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد، دانشگاه صنعتی جندی شاپور دزفول، دزفول، ایران.
2 - دکتری منابع آب، سازمان آب و برق خوزستان.
3 - استادیار، دانشگاه صنعتی جندی شاپور دزفول، دزفول، ایران.
کلید واژه: Climate Change, تغییر اقلیم, Runoff simulation, IHACRES, APHRODITE, CMIP5, شبیه سازی آبدهی, APHRODITE و CIMIP5,
چکیده مقاله :
Identification and analysis of flow fluctuations in consequences of climate change is one of the most important factors in water resources management planning and this is vital especially in areas where large crowds are engaged in agriculture. Dez watershed, as an agricultural hub in the country, is one of areas that river flow fluctuations caused by climate change can affect a large population. In this study, by using gridded precipitation data APHRODITE and gridded temperature data set CHCN-CAMS, the IHACRES hydrological model was calibrated for the basin. Therefore, with introduction the temperature and precipitation under 2.6 Scenario of fifth report (CMIP5) to hydrologic model, flow fluctuations of watershed is simulation in future. result indicate that the temperature increase of 0.17-2 and precipitation changes of 3 to 75 percent in 2011-2035 period compared to the historical period (1983-2007). Runoff simulation result for future period showed that increases of 9.7 percent in long-term average annual runoff compared to the historical period.
شناسایی و ارزیابی تغییرات جریان ناشی از تغییر اقلیم یکی از مهمترین فاکتورهای برنامه ریزی مدیریت منابع آب می باشد و این مسئله خصوصا در مناطقی که جمعیت زیادی از آن به کشاورزی مشغول هستند، اهمیت دوچندان می یابد. حوضه آبریز دز به عنوان یک قطب کشاورزی در کشور از جمله مناطقی است که تغییرات آبدهی ناشی از پدیده تغییر اقلیم می تواند جمعیت زیادی را تحت تاثیر قرار دهد. در این تحقیق، ابتدا با استفاده از داده های شبکه ای بارش APHRODITE و مجموعه داده های شبکه ای دمای CHCN-CAMS، مدل هیدرولوژیکی IHACRES برای حوضه مورد نظر واسنجی شد. سپس با معرفی دما و بارش سناریوی 6/2 گزارش پنجم (CMIP5) به مدل هیدرولوژیکی مذکور، تغییرات آبدهی حوضه آبریز در دوره های آتی شبیه سازی می شود. نتایج نشان از افزایش 17/0 تا 2 درجه ای دما و تغییرات 3 تا 75 درصدی بارندگی در دوره 2011-2035 نسبت به دوره مشاهداتی 1983-2007 دارد. نتایج شبیه سازی رواناب برای دوره آتی حاکی از افزایش 7/9 درصدی متوسط رواناب سالانه درازمدت رواناب نسبت به دوره مشاهداتی می باشد.
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