Investigating Randomness By Walsh-Hadamard Transform in Financial Series
محورهای موضوعی : Economic and Financial Time Series
1 - Department of Financial Management, Payamenoor University,Tehran.iran
کلید واژه: Walsh Transform , Randomness, Financial Series ,
چکیده مقاله :
The objective of the ongoing research is to introduce the initial, substantial, and practical implementation of the Walsh-Hadamard Transform in the realm of quantitative finance. It is worth noting that this particular tool, which has limited utility in the domain of digital signal processing, has demonstrated its effectiveness in evaluating the statistical significance of any binary sequence. Therefore, employing this approach in financial series would be exceptionally noteworthy. By employing five primary tests to assess the randomness of the series, including those pertaining to the Tehran Stock Exchange, as well as copper and gold, the outcomes reveal the presence of randomness in the transformed series in all aspects. Naturally, this random-ness could be examined to identify any underlying trends.
The objective of the ongoing research is to introduce the initial, substantial, and practical implementation of the Walsh-Hadamard Transform in the realm of quantitative finance. It is worth noting that this particular tool, which has limited utility in the domain of digital signal processing, has demonstrated its effectiveness in evaluating the statistical significance of any binary sequence. Therefore, employing this approach in financial series would be exceptionally noteworthy. By employing five primary tests to assess the randomness of the series, including those pertaining to the Tehran Stock Exchange, as well as copper and gold, the outcomes reveal the presence of randomness in the transformed series in all aspects. Naturally, this random-ness could be examined to identify any underlying trends.
[1] Antoniadis, J., Arumugam, P., Arumugam, S., Babak, S., Bagchi, M., Nielsen, A., The second data re-lease from the European Pulsar Timing Array II, Customised pulsar noise models for spatially correlated gravitational waves. arXiv preprint arXiv:230616225. 2023.
[2] Broadbent, H.A., Maksik, Y.A., Analysis of periodic data using Walsh functions ,Behavior Research Methods, Instruments, Computers,1992; 24(2):238-47.
[3] Fama, E.F., The behavior of stock-market prices, The journal of Business, 1965; 38(1):34-105.
[4] Fox, M.D., Halko, M.A., Eldaief, M.C., Pascual-Leone, A., Measuring and manipulating brain connec-tivity with resting state functional connectivity magnetic resonance imaging (fcMRI) and transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS), Neuroimage. 2012; 62(4):2232-43.
[5] Golubov, B., Efimov, A., Skvortsov, V., Walsh series and transforms: theory and applications: Spring-er Science and Business Media; 2012.
[6] Johnson, J., Puschel, M., editors. In search of the optimal Walsh-Hadamard transform. 2000 IEEE In-ternational Conference on Acoustics, Speech, and Signal Processing Proceedings (Cat No 00CH37100); 2000: IEEE.
[7] Kendall, M.G., Hill, A.B., The analysis of economic time-series-part i: Prices, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (General), 1953; 116(1):11-34.
[8] Kim, S-J., Umeno, K., Hasegawa, A., Corrections of the NIST statistical test suite for randomness, arXiv preprint nlin/0401040. 2004.
[9] Mardan, S.S., Hamood, M.T., New fast Walsh–Hadamard–Hartley transform algorithm, International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering, 2023;13(2):1533.
[10] Marsani, MF., Shabri, A., Random Walk Behaviour of Malaysia Share Return in Different Economic Circumstance, MATEMATIKA: Malaysian Journal of Industrial and Applied Mathematics, 2019.
[11] Mazumder, P., Chandra, S., Rana, S., Mukhopadhyay, M., Naskar, MK., Parallel Hardware Implemen-tation of Walsh Hadamard Transform, Journal of Scientific and Industrial Research, 2022; 81(07):748-53.
[12] Oczeretko, E., Borowska, M., Brzozowska, E., Pawlinski, B., Borusiewicz, A., Gajewski, Z., editors. Walsh-Hadamard spectral analysis of signals representing bioelectrical activity of the reproductive tract in pigs, IEEE 15th International Conference on Bioinformatics and Bioengineering (BIBE), 2015; IEEE.
[13] Oprina, A-G., Popescu, A., Simion, E., Simion, G., Walsh− Hadamard randomness testand new meth-ods of test results integration, Bulletin of the Transilvania University of Brasov Series III: Mathematics and Computer Science, 2009:93-106.
[14] Pan, H., Badawi, D., Cetin, A.E., editors. Fast walsh-hadamard transform and smooth-thresholding based binary layers in deep neural networks, Proceedings of the IEEE/CVF Conference on Computer Vi-sion and Pattern Recognition; 2021.
[15] Pratt, J.W., Gibbons, J.D., Concepts of nonparametric theory: Springer Science & Business Media; 2012.
[16] Walsh, J.L., A closed set of normal orthogonal functions, American Journal of Mathematics, 1923; 45(1):5-24.
Adv. Math. Fin. App., 2024, 9(4), P.1203-1212 | |
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Advances in Mathematical Finance & Applications www.amfa.iau-arak.ac.ir Print ISSN: 2538-5569 Online ISSN: 2645-4610
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Original Research
Investigating Randomness By Walsh-Hadamard Transform in Financial Series
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Seyed Jalal Tabatabaei*
Department of Financial Management, Payamenoor University, Tehran. Iran
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Article Info Article history: Received 2023-09-23 Accepted 2024-03-05
Keywords: Walsh Transform Randomness Financial Series |
| Abstract | |
The objective of the ongoing research is to introduce the initial, substantial, and practical implementation of the Walsh-Hadamard Transform in the realm of quantitative finance. It is worth noting that this particular tool, which has limited utility in the domain of digital signal processing, has demonstrated its effectiveness in evaluating the statistical significance of any binary sequence. Therefore, employing this approach in financial series would be exceptionally noteworthy. By employing five primary tests to assess the randomness of the series, including those pertaining to the Tehran Stock Exchange, as well as copper and gold, the outcomes reveal the presence of randomness in the transformed series in all aspects. Naturally, this randomness could be examined to identify any underlying trends. |
1 Introduction
Randomness can be regarded as a magical phenomenon that occurs behind the scenes. The little black box, which is used in research and by quantitative researchers, is often seen as an incomprehensible tool. What is the rationale behind its speed? What causes it to be so random? Is randomness a byproduct of chaos and order? How reliable is it to incorporate the command for generating random numbers as a section of code in analysis programs? The output, in the form of a random number, is produced by a dedicated function. However, these numbers are not truly random, but rather pseudorandom. A typical pseudo-random number generator is designed for speed but is defined by the underlying algorithm. In most programming languages, the Mersenne Twister, which was developed in 1997, has become the standard. Interestingly, the Mersenne Twister is not flawless. Its use has been discouraged for generating cryptographic random numbers. After exploring the topic extensively to uncover uncharted areas, it is generally believed that the random walk hypothesis is applicable to financial markets, where returns are random .This theory dates back to the early 1800s, when Jules Regnault and Louis Bachelier observed the characteristics of randomness in the returns of stock options. The theory was later formalized by Maurice Kendall and popularized in 1965 by Eugene Fama in his seminal paper Random Walks in Stock Market Prices. Despite the entertainment value of these tests, they do not demonstrate that markets are random in any way. All they demonstrate is that, to the human eye, market returns, in the absence of any additional information, cannot be distinguished from random processes.This conclusion, by itself, does not provide any useful information regarding the random characteristics of markets. Several different tests have been proposed and examined in the field of market randomness, such as the Runs test, Gibbons, Dickinson, and winsor (2012), the , the Discrete Fourier Transform test by Song-Ju(2004), Umeno, and others. Moreover, the random walk hypothesis itself has certain limitations. This study presents the meaningful and practical application of the Walsh–Hadamard transform (WHT) in the field of quantitative finance. It is noteworthy that despite its limited utility in digital signal processing, this tool has proven to be highly effective in evaluating the statistical significance of any binary sequence in terms of randomness. The Walsh-Hadamard transform is a mathematical technique that has been extensively utilized in a variety of domains, such as signal processing, image compression, bioelectrical activity analysis, pattern recognition, and cryptography (Oczeretko et al, 2015, Antoniadis et al 2023, halko et al2012). However, its application in financial time series analysis has not been extensively explored. The primary utilization of WHT in financial return time series is through the randomness approach. Consequently, we present the introduction of the transform into the field of finance. We demonstrate a practical application of the WHT framework in the search for randomness in financial time series. We illustrate this through the example of three indices, namely the Tehran stock exchange, gold, and copper, and compare their respective results. The subsequent sections encompass the theoretical framework, research background, results, and recommendations.
2 Literature Review
2.1Theoritical background
In this section, we will present a succinct overview of the theoretical elements pertaining to the Walsh-Hadamard Transform (WHT). First, we will examine a discrete signal that possesses real-valued properties. X (ti) where i = 0, 1. . . N 1. Its trimmed version, X (ti), of the total length of n = 2M such that and is considered as an input signal for the Walsh–Hadamard Transform, the latter defined as (1) :
| (1) |
| (2) |
| (3) |
| (4) |
| (5) |
| (6) |
| (7) |
| (8) |
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(a) copper price series | (b) Gold price series | (c) TSE price series |
Fig. 2: Data time series plot
Additionally, it is important to note that the signal is 1100 points in length and can be divided into 32 sub-sequences, each consisting of 32 points. Therefore, the variable n represents the trimmed signal of x(t) and is equal to 210. In order to provide clarity, the first 32 segments of the price-series, which are each 32 points in length, are plotted in Fig. 3 and marked with vertical lines.
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(a) copper | (b) Gold | (c) TSE | |
Fig. 3: Walsh-Hadamard Transform plot |
From the comparison of both figures 2 and 3, one can comprehend the level of intricacy involved in deriving the WHT results. Notably, in the case of return-series, the WHT image exhibits a considerable lack of uniformity, indicating the random nature of the return-series. To ascertain the randomness of the return series, five statistical tests have been conducted. The results of these tests are shown thorough tables.
Table 1: Crude Decision Test
| copper | Gold | TSE | |||
Test NO. | statistic | pvalue | statistic | pvalue | statistic | pvalue |
Test1 | 3.12 | .995 | 4.5 | .996 | 2.99 | .990 |
Table 2: Proportion of Sequences Passing a Test
| copper | Gold | TSE | |||
Test NO. | number | pvalue | number | pvalue | number | pvalue |
Test2 | 0 | .999 | 1 | .998 | 0 | .990 |
Table 3: Uniformity of p-values Test
| copper | Gold | TSE | |||
Test NO. | statistic | pvalue | statistic | pvalue | statistic | pvalue |
Test3 | 12.5 | .999 | 9.50 | .998 | 6.55 | .990 |
Table 4: Maximum Value Decision Test
| copper | Gold | TSE | |||
Test NO. | statistic | pvalue | statistic | pvalue | statistic | pvalue |
Test4 | 33.5 | .999 | 29.50 | .998 | 21.50 | .990 |
Table 5: Sum of Square Decision Test
| copper | Gold | TSE | |||
Test NO. | statistic | pvalue | statistic | pvalue | statistic | pvalue |
Test5 | 25.1 | .999 | 9.2 | .998 | 16.1 | .990 |
As evidenced by the five administered tests, the presence of randomness in the transformed time series has been validated with a confidence level exceeding 99% in all instances. Furthermore, in the overall test, the random- ness of the transformed time series has been confirmed at a level surpassing 99%. in order to assess the robustness of the findings. The experiment involved varying values of the sequences and the distances between them, with subsequent verification of the outcomes.
5 Results and Recommendations
The objective of this article is to examine the implementation of financial time series utilizing the Walsh-Hadamard Transform method. This article endeavors to scrutinize the randomness of three distinct time series, specifically copper, gold, and the stock market index, through the utilization of five principal randomness tests. The findings unequivocally demonstrate the presence of randomness in the transformed data. The current article aims to offer an initial exposition of the subject matter under scrutiny, thereby necessitating further research in this domain, particularly in regard to the practicability of utilizing the transformed data. Specific patterns were identified within this field, with the results being presented as a viable pattern.
Referrences
[1] Antoniadis, J., Arumugam, P., Arumugam, S., Babak, S., Bagchi, M., Nielsen, A., The second data release from the European Pulsar Timing Array II, Customised pulsar noise models for spatially correlated gravitational waves. arXiv preprint arXiv:230616225. 2023.
[2] Broadbent, H.A., Maksik, Y.A., Analysis of periodic data using Walsh functions ,Behavior Research Methods, Instruments, Computers,1992; 24(2):238-47.
[3] Fama, E.F., The behavior of stock-market prices, The journal of Business, 1965; 38(1):34-105.
[4] Fox, M.D., Halko, M.A., Eldaief, M.C., Pascual-Leone, A., Measuring and manipulating brain connectivity with resting state functional connectivity magnetic resonance imaging (fcMRI) and transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS), Neuroimage. 2012; 62(4):2232-43.
[5] Golubov, B., Efimov, A., Skvortsov, V., Walsh series and transforms: theory and applications: Springer Science and Business Media; 2012.
[6] Johnson, J., Puschel, M., editors. In search of the optimal Walsh-Hadamard transform. 2000 IEEE International Conference on Acoustics, Speech, and Signal Processing Proceedings (Cat No 00CH37100); 2000: IEEE.
[7] Kendall, M.G., Hill, A.B., The analysis of economic time-series-part i: Prices, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (General), 1953; 116(1):11-34.
[8] Kim, S-J., Umeno, K., Hasegawa, A., Corrections of the NIST statistical test suite for randomness, arXiv preprint nlin/0401040. 2004.
[9] Mardan, S.S., Hamood, M.T., New fast Walsh–Hadamard–Hartley transform algorithm, International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering, 2023;13(2):1533.
[10] Marsani, MF., Shabri, A., Random Walk Behaviour of Malaysia Share Return in Different Economic Circumstance, MATEMATIKA: Malaysian Journal of Industrial and Applied Mathematics, 2019.
[11] Mazumder, P., Chandra, S., Rana, S., Mukhopadhyay, M., Naskar, MK., Parallel Hardware Implementation of Walsh Hadamard Transform, Journal of Scientific and Industrial Research, 2022; 81(07):748-53.
[12] Oczeretko, E., Borowska, M., Brzozowska, E., Pawlinski, B., Borusiewicz, A., Gajewski, Z., editors. Walsh-Hadamard spectral analysis of signals representing bioelectrical activity of the reproductive tract in pigs, IEEE 15th International Conference on Bioinformatics and Bioengineering (BIBE), 2015; IEEE.
[13] Oprina, A-G., Popescu, A., Simion, E., Simion, G., Walsh− Hadamard randomness testand new methods of test results integration, Bulletin of the Transilvania University of Brasov Series III: Mathematics and Computer Science, 2009:93-106.
[14] Pan, H., Badawi, D., Cetin, A.E., editors. Fast walsh-hadamard transform and smooth-thresholding based binary layers in deep neural networks, Proceedings of the IEEE/CVF Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition; 2021.
[15] Pratt, J.W., Gibbons, J.D., Concepts of nonparametric theory: Springer Science & Business Media; 2012.
[16] Walsh, J.L., A closed set of normal orthogonal functions, American Journal of Mathematics, 1923; 45(1):5-24.
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