کاربست تئوری بازی در تحلیل کنشگران ساخت وساز شهری، مورد مطالعه: حریم منطقه کلان‌شهری تهران
محورهای موضوعی : برنامه ریزی شهری
زهرا صفائی پور
1
,
رحیم سرور
2
,
ریباز قربانی نژاد
3
1 - دانشجوی دکتری تخصصی رشته جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران
2 - استاد گروه جغرافیا، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران
3 - استادیار گروه جغرافیا، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران
کلید واژه: ", کنشگران", , ", ساخت‌وساز", , ", حریم منطقه کلان‌شهری", , ", تئوری بازی", , ", مدل گراف برای تحلیل مناقشه", .,
چکیده مقاله :
وجود موقعیت راهبردی در مدیریت شهر با تضاد منافع یا رقابت، استفاده از تئوری بازی‌ها را برای توصیف مسائل مدیریت شهری جذاب می‌کند. یکی از جایگاه‌های بحث برانگیز مهم در حریم منطقه کلان‌شهری تهران، ساخت‌و ساز در بخش املاک و مستغلات است. ساخت‌وساز در تهران نه تنها یک فعالیت اقتصادی مهم است، بلکه محور اصلی طرح‌های توسعه شهری است و کنشگران این بخش به یکی از اصلی‌ترین و مهم‌ترین کنشگران قدرت شهری در منطقه کلان‌شهری تهران تبدیل شده‌اند. هدف از این پژوهش، کاربست تئوری بازی در تحلیل کنشگران ساخت‌وساز حریم منطقه کلان‌شهری تهران می‌باشد. روش تحقیق از منظر هدف، از نوع کاربردی - توسعه‌ای، از نظر روش‌های اصلی تحقیق در زمره تحقیقات توصیفی - تحلیلی قرار دارد. جامعه آماری شامل مدیران و یا کارشناسان که بر اساس نمونهگیری هدفمند و نظری تعداد 21 نفر به عنوان جامعه نمونه انتخاب شد. به دلیل پیچیدگی مناقشه میان کنشگران، با استفاده از یک مدل نظریه بازی‌ها موسوم به مدل گراف، تعاملات و ترجیحات میان بازیگران مختلف ساخت‌وساز حریم منطقه کلان‌شهری مدل‌سازی و تحلیل شده و بر اساس آن محتمل‌ترین نتایج ارائه گردیده است. کنشگران ساخت‌وساز حریم منطقه کلان‌شهری در قالب سه گروه عمده:1) نهادهای سیاست‌گذار؛ 2) نهادهای نظارت ؛ 3) نهادهای مجری دسته‌بندی شده‌اند. نتایج مدل سازی نشان داد از 40 وضعیت شدنی، 6 وضعیت تعادلی وجود دارد. بر همین اساس نتایج حاصله نشان می‌دهد وضعیتی که به عنوان پایدارترین وضعیت کنش و بازی میان کنشگران مطرح است، مستلزم اصلاحات ساختاری و شناخت مفهوم منطقه کلان‌شهری در نظام تقسیمات سیاسی کشور با همراهی سایر نهادهای مؤثر است
Existence of strategic position in city with a conflict of interest or competition makes using game theory to describe the urban management issues, attractive. One of the important controversial positions in the privacy of the metropolitan area of Tehran is construction of real estate sector. Construction in Tehran, not only is an important economic activity, but also is the point focus of urban development plans, and activists in this sector have become one of the main and most important activists in urban power in Tehran metropolitan area.The purpose of this research is the application of game theory in the analysis of actors in the construction of the privacy metropolitan area of Tehran. The research method, from the point of view of the goal, is of the type of applied-developmental research, in terms of the main research methods, it is in the category of descriptive-analytical research. The statistical population of this research includes managers and experts who were selected based on purposeful and theoretical sampling and their number is 21 people. Due to the complexity of the conflict between activists, using a game theory model called graph model, interactions and preferences between different actors of the metropolitan area privacy construction are modeled and analyzed and based on it, and the most probable results are presented. Activists in the construction of the privacy of the metropolitan area are categorized into three main groups: 1- Policy-Making organizations 2- Supervision organizations 3- Executive organizations. The results of this modeling show that among the 40 situations, there are 6 stable situations. Based on this the results show that the situation is considered as the most stable situation of action and play among activists, requires structural reforms and understanding the concept of metropolitan area in the system of political divisions of the country with the help of other institutions is effective.
Extended Abstract
Introduction
Metropolitan areas are among the most important new phenomena in the 20th century that have presented different patterns of urbanization, habitation structure, city size and spatial structure. These areas have emerged as the main economic and social units in the world community so their management structure has become a controversial issue in urban policies and general management of societies and for this reason, today in developed countries and most developing countries, Similar to other residential centers, metropolitan areas have formal and specific geographic and management structures. The management of cities is not limited to their legal boundaries. To manage the affairs of cities, the area around them must be under the control and supervision of planners. The boundary of the cities is a certain line that defines their environment and prevents the development of construction outside it and also enables the preservation of the surrounding nature and wildlife.In the boundaries of the cities, due to the indiscriminate constructions and in some cases due to the proximity of the villages to the cities and the suburban areas, the lands around the cities have been lost and the land uses have changed drastically. Therefore, the consequence of such growth leads to the expansion of the city towards the periphery and the threat to the privacy and boundaries of the city. How to management the constructions of the metropolitan area is one of the most important challenges ahead in this field.
The use of common modeling tools in socio-economic systems, in addition to the detailed description of the issues, also identifies effective solutions. These tools if used well can increase our understanding of real-world issues. One of these tools is "game theory".
The game theory an interdependent decision-making theory in which, decision-makers have conflicting preferences and the outcome of their decisions cannot be determined by one party or actor alone. The roots of this theory is derive from the decision theory. In other words, the game theory, or the so-called "interactive decision theory", is derived from the decision theory. Game theory helps predict the behavior of actors based on the goals and interests of each player in a game. Graph modeling method is one of the modeling methods in the subset of game theory that with a simple and unique structure, with ease, key features of a game (Players, preferences, actions, etc.) enters the analysis. The graph model is placed in the model group of non-collaborative games with complete information.
Theory game focuses on decision situations where preferences of decision makers are disputed. Existence of strategic position in city also with a conflict of interest or competition makes using game theory to describe the urban management. One of the important controversial positions in the privacy of the metropolitan area of Tehran is construction of real estate sector. Construction in Tehran, not only is an important economic activity, but also is the point focus of urban development plans, and activists in this sector have become one of the main and most important activists in urban power in Tehran metropolitan area. This research also tries to analyze the construction activists in the metropolitan area of Tehran by applying game theory, so this research seeks to find answers for them by presenting 2 general questions. These questions are:
1-How is the narrative of the game between Activists of the construction of the privacyof the metropolitan area field producing and reproducing?
2- Which results are most likely to be achieved regarding the current game theory?
Methodology
The problem structuring methods, among new approaches to operations research, believe that the most important step in solving a problem is to identify it. As such, they try their best to investigate the problem by identifying various factors, revealing and hidden relationships between them, and avoiding simplicity and unrealization. Since the game theory is one of the most important of these methods, the present research applies it to introduce and describe the gaming in the field of metropolitan area privacy Construction. By completing the initial assumptions, analysis and determination of the stable status is done using the GMCR+ software. Descriptive-analytical research was conducted in 1402. The data required for this research were collected by the "documentary-survey" method (interview and observation). The statistical population of this research includes managers and experts who were selected based on purposeful and theoretical sampling and their number is 21 people.
Results and discussion
Activists in the construction of the privacy of the metropolitan area are categorized into three main groups: 1- Policy-Making organizations 2- Supervision organizations 3- Executive organizations. Based on the final options for metropolitan area construction practitioners, here all game theory states are equal to 256 states but not all of these states are feasible. The model analysis is based on the stability and balance of the actors. After removing incompatible situations and the necessity of choosing one of the options in the software, the number of possible situations reached 40. Based on the results obtained from these 40 states, there are 6 equilibrium states.
Conclusion
The modeling results of the activists in the field of metropolitan area construction show that there are 6 equilibrium states among the 40 possible states. Based on the logical propositions related to Nash equilibrium, the equilibrium state of the game includes general metarationality, symmetrical metarationality, consecutive stability, limited stability and persistence of foresight. In fact the equilibrium state of the game is the most beneficial for all the players. Also the analysis of the coalition and the analysis of the existing situation of the organizations show that the optimal situation for the activists in the field of privacy construction in the metropolitan area of Tehran who have the authority to realize the maximum interests of the actors, requires structural reforms and the active presence of the actors.
1. Adeleke A.Q., Bahaudin A.Y., Kamaruddeen A. M., Bamgbade J. A Salimon Maruf G; Waris Ali Khan M. and Sorooshian, Sh. (2018): The Influence of Organizational External Factors on Construction Risk Management among Nigerian Construction Companies. Journal : Safety and Health at Work, 9(1), pp:115-124. Doi: 10.1016/j.shaw.2017.05.004.
2. Abdoli, Ghahreman (2013): Game theory and its application: Static and dynamic games with com plete information, Tehran: Jahad University Press. [In Persian].
3. Alian, Mehdi., Mohammadpour, Saber and Razavian, Mohammad Taghi (2019). ''Strategic modeling and analysis of the relationship between regional activists Tehran metropolitan area with game theory approach''. Scientific Quarterly Journal of Strategic Studies of Public Policy, 9 (31), 131-152. [In Persian].
4. Barakpour, Nasser., Asadi, Iraj and Basirt, Maitham (2012): typology of privacy and global experiences of its planning and management, Shahrnagar research-educational publication, Tehran: 12th year, (56, 57). [In Persian].
5. Bekius, F. and S. L. Gomes. (2023): A framework to design game theory-based interventions for strategic analysis of real-world problems with stakeholders. European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier. 309 (2), pp: 925-938.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2023.01.046
6. Chen, Zh. and T. Wang. (2022(: Photovoltaic subsidy withdrawal: An evolutionary game analysis of the impact on Chinese stakeholders’ strategic choices. Sol. Energy. 241, pp: 302–314. DOI:10.1016/j.solener.2022.04.054
7. Chen, H., Xiao, Y., Liu, Q. and G. Fu. (2023):Incentive Mechanism and Subsidy Design for Continuous Monitoring of Energy Consumption in Public Buildings (CMECPB): An Overview Based on Evolutionary Game Theory. Buildings. 13: 984, pp: 1-27. https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings13040984
8. Coninx, K., Deconinck, G., and T. Holvoet (2018(: who gets my flex? An evolutionary game theory analysis of flexibility market dynamics. Appl Energy. 218, pp: 104–113. DOI:10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.02.098
9. Dalvand, mohamad., Kargar, bahman and Tavakolan, ali (2022). ''Analysis of factors affecting urban construction violations (region 3 of the municipality of region 16 Tehran Metropolitan)". Urban Environmental Planning and Development. 2(6), 1-16. doi: 10.30495/juepd.2022.690607
10. Eissa, R., Eid, M. and A. Ema lbeltagi. (2021): Current applications of game theory in construction engineering and management research: A social network analysis approach. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 147(7). DOI:10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0002085
11. Hadizadeh Bazzaz, Maryam (2013). "Management of Urban Peripheral Lands; A systematic strategy to Reduce Urban Problems, case study Mashhad Metropolis". Journal Of The Urban Development and Organization Haft Shahr, 4(43, 44), 6-16. [In Persian].
12. Hosseini Dehaghani, Mehdi and Basirat, Meisam (2016). "a Game Theory Approach to the Analysis of Urban Power Games: Analysis of Construction Building Processes in Tehran Metropolis". Honar-Ha-Ye-Ziba: Memary VA Shahrsazi, 21(1), 91-100. DOI: 10.22059/jfaup.2016.59692[In Persian].
13. Jordan, J. (2023): Game theory and omniscience. International Journal for Philosophy of Religion. 94, pp: 91–106. DOI:10.1007/s11153-023-09866-1
14. Kinsara R., Kilgour, M., and K. Hipel. (2015): Inverse Approach to the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics: Systems.45 (5), pp: 734-742. DOI:10.1109/TSMC.2014.2376473
15. Kilgour, M. and K. Hipel. (2010): Conflict Analysis Methods: the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution Handbook of Group Decision and Negotiation. Springer, DOI: 10.1007/978-90-481-9097-3_13.
16. Kazemian, Gholamreza., Aslipour, Hosein and Taqipour Akhtari, Arash (2022). "A Phenomenological Study of the Lived Experiences of land developer in Tehran's Building Management System". Motaleate Shahri, 11(44), 31-46. doi: 10.34785/J011.2022.002[In Persian].
17. Liu, Y., Tang, W., He J., ianhua; L., Yanfang; Ai T. and D. Liu. (2015): A land-use spatial optimization model based on genetic optimization and game theory. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems. 49, pp: 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2014.09.002
18. López, R., Calvo, J. L. and I. de la Torre. (2022): Behavioral and psychological game theory: a systematic review. Retos Revista de Ciencias de la Administración y Economía. 12(24), pp: 296-315. https://doi.org/10.17163/ret.n24.2022.07
19. Ning X., Qiu, Y., Wu, Ch. and K. Jia. (2022): Developing a Decision-Making Model for Construction Safety Behavior Supervision: An Evolutionary Game Theory-Based Analysis. Frontiers in Psychology. 13:861828, pp: 1-14. DOI:10.3389/fpsyg.2022.861828
20. Salehi, Dwood., Gudarzi, Mustata and Muntsari, Hossein (2019). "Conflict Resolution of Water Resources Allocation in Zayandehrood Basin Using Game Theory and WEAP Model". Special Issue of Flood and Soil Erosion, 23(4), 183-198. 10.47176/jwss.23.4.38871 [In Persian].
21. Sarkheili, Elnaz., Salari, Mohammad and Safavi Sohi, Maryam (2018). "Analyzing the Role of Constructional Violations in the Failure of Urban Development Plans of the Tehran Metropolis". The Monthly Scientific Journal of Bagh-e Nazar, 14(51), 5-20. [In Persian].
22. Sarvar, Rahim., Darvish, Behrooz and Khaliji, Mohammad Ali (2021). "Political economy and integrated greenbelt management of Tehran metropolitan area". Urban Economics, 6(1), 27-40. doi: 10.22108/ue.2022.134331.1220 [In Persian].
23. Shakibabarough, A., Valinejad Shoubia, M. and M. J. Emami Skardi. (2012): Application of Game Theory Approach Solving the Construction Project Conflicts. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences. 58 ,pp: 1586 – 1593. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2012.09.1145
24. Shitao, G., Gao, X., Li, Zh. and L. Chen. (2021): Developing a Dynamic Supervision Mechanism to Improve Construction Safety Investment Supervision Efficiency in China: Theoretical Simulation of Evolutionary Game Process. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 18(7):3594, pp: 2-29. DOI:10.3390/ijerph18073594
25. Study and planning center of Tehran city, (2016): The strategic plan of the capital city (Management Report), approved by the Supreme Council of Urban Planning and Architecture of Iran, Vice President of Studies and Planning of Infrastructure and Master Plan. [In Persian].
26. Tavassolian, Rahim., Rostaei ,Shahrivar., Heydari Chianeh, Rahim and Asgari zamani, Akbar (2019)."Analysis of the Residential Land Supply Policies, production of Rent Space and Urban Construction Coherence (Case Study: Zanjan City)". Sustainable city, 2(3), 79-95. Doi:10.22034/jsc.2019.190701.1048[In Persian].
27. Wang, J., Hipel, K., Fang, L. and Y. Dang. (2018): Matrix representations of the inverse problem in the graph model for conflict resolution. Operational Research. 270(1), pp: 282-293. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2018.03.007
