بررسی عکس‌العمل پیچیدگی اقتصادی به شوک‌های فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات در ایران (با استفاده از الگوی خودرگرسیون برداری)
محورهای موضوعی : پردازش چند رسانه ای، سیستمهای ارتباطی، سیستمهای هوشمند
اشکان رحیم زاده
1
(
استادیار، گروه اقتصاد، واحد زنجان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، زنجان، ایران
)
کلید واژه: فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات, پیچیدگی اقتصادی, الگوی خودرگرسیون برداری,
چکیده مقاله :
فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات با داشتن ویژگی‌های دانش، آثار سرریز در تولیدات ایجاد نموده و موجبات پیچیدگی اقتصادی را فراهم می‌نماید. هدف این تحقیق بررسی تأثیرپذیری پیچیدگی اقتصادی نسبت به شوک‌های فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات در ایران می‌باشد. داده‌های آماری بکار گرفته‌شده در این تحقیق از بانک جهانی و وب‌سایت دانشگاه ام‌آی‌تی طی سال‌های 2020-2000 بوده و از نرم‌افزار Eviews برای برآورد مدل پیشنهادی استفاده شده است. داده‌های سری زمانی این مطالعه همگی ایستا بوده و بر اساس معیار شوارتز-بیزین وقفه بهینه یک می‌باشد. نتایج آزمون جوهانسن دلالت بر وجود یک رابطه بلند مدّت بین متغیرهای تحقیق بوده و برآورد، تأثیر مثبت کاربران اینترنت و واردات کالاهای ICT بر پیچیدگی اقتصادی را در بلندمدت نشان می‌دهد. آماره F در برآورد مدل تحقیق بر اساس روش خود رگرسیون برداری دلالت بر معنی‌داری آن بوده و 87 درصد از تغییرات پیچیدگی اقتصادی توسط متغیرهای مدل تبیین می‌گردد. تأثیر شوک واردات کالاهای ICT بر پیچیدگی اقتصادی در همه سال‌ها مثبت و این تأثیر در مورد کاربران اینترنت در همه سال‌ها به‌غیراز سال دوم الی سوم مثبت می‌باشد. همچنین اثر تجزیه واریانس نشان می‌دهد واردات کالاهای ICT و کاربران اینترنت هر دو در تبیین تغییرات پیچیدگی اقتصادی نقش داشته و سهم واردات کالاهای موردنظر بیشتر است.
Introduction: With the characteristics of knowledge, information and communication technology creates spillover effects in production and causes economic complexity. This technology has advantages such as reducing costs, overcoming geographical boundaries, increasing the flow of information, ensuring transactions due to quick access to information and increasing competitiveness.
Method: The statistical data used in this research is from the World Bank and the MIT University website during the years 2000-2020, and Eviews software was used to estimate the proposed model. In this research, the vector auto regressive model is used, and according to the Schwartz Bayesian criterion, the optimal interval is determined. To perform the cointegration test, Johansen's cointegration test is used. In the inference related to a vector auto regressive model, attention is paid to shock response functions and variance decomposition. A shock response separates the components of the endogenous variables into shocks with mutations to specific variables. We examine the impact of this shock over a 10-year plan.
Results: The time series data of this study are all stationary and based on the Schwartz-Bayesian criterion, the optimal interval is one. The results of the Johansen test indicate the existence of a long-term relationship between the research variables and the estimate shows the positive impact of Internet users and the import of ICT goods on economic complexity in the long term. The F statistic in the estimation of the research model based on vector auto regressive is significant and 87% of the economic complexity changes are explained by the model variables. The impact of the ICT product import shock on economic complexity is positive in all years and this impact is positive for Internet users in all years except the second to third year. Also, the effect of variance analysis of economic complexity shows that the import of ICT goods and Internet users has a positive role in explaining the changes of economic complexity and the share of import of the desired goods is higher.
Discussion: This research states that if the economy can transfer a large amount of knowledge and skills to Internet users in the form of large networks of people, and also the necessary platforms are provided through ICT products, which are important in this field, a diverse set of Knowledge goods are produced and a more complex economy is obtained.
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