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  • بررسی اثرات تغییرات ساختاری و رشد اقتصادی بر انتشار دی‌اکسید کربن در ایران: کاربرد رهیافت خود رگرسیو با وقفه‌های گسترده

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آدرس مقاله


کد مقاله : HE-1908-1823 (R1) بازدید : 63 صفحه: 147 - 163

نوع مقاله: پژوهشی

بررسی اثرات تغییرات ساختاری و رشد اقتصادی بر انتشار دی‌اکسید کربن در ایران: کاربرد رهیافت خود رگرسیو با وقفه‌های گسترده

محورهای موضوعی : اقتصاد محیط زیست

محمد علی اسعدی 1 (دانشجوی دکتری گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس و مدرس دانشگاه کردستان.)
شهلا سلیمی 2 (فارغ‌التحصیل کارشناسی ارشد گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه کردستان.)
حامد قادرزاده 3 (دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه کردستان. *(مسوول مکاتبات))

تاریخ دریافت : 1398/05/15 تاریخ پذیرش : 1398/08/01 تاریخ انتشار : 1401/10/01

کلید واژه: مصرف انرژی, رشد اقتصادی, رشد شهرنشینی, انتشار دی‌اکسید کربن, ARDL,

چکیده مقاله :

زمینه و هدف: عوامل مختلفی باعث افزایش بعضی از آلایند های خطرناک از قبیل دی اکسید کربن در محیط می شوند. بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر افزایش آلاینده های مذکور می تواند در برنامه ریزی برای کنترل و مدیریت آلاینده ها مؤثر واقع شود. بنابراین مطالعه حاضر درصدد است، تأثیر میزان رشد زیر بخش‌های اقتصادی کشور، رشد اقتصادی، مصرف انرژی، رشد شهرنشینی، درجه باز بودن تجارت و توسعه مالی را بر میزان انتشار گاز دی اکسید کربن مورد بررسی قرار دهد. روش بررسی: مدل آلودگی زیست‌محیطی این مطالعه با استفاده از رهیافت خود توضیح با وقفه های گسترده (ARDL) و الگوی تصحیح خطا (ECM) در ایران طی دوره زمانی 2017-1985 تخمین و ضمن بررسی رابطه بلندمدت بین متغیرهای الگو، پویایی های کوتاه مدت الگو و سرعت تعدیل عدم تعادل کوتاه مدت به بلندمدت برآورد شده است. یافته‌ها: یافته‌های حاصل از الگوی بلندمدت نشان داد، رشد شهرنشینی با مقدار 527/0 درصد دارای بیشترین تأثیر مثبت و درجه بازبودن تجارت با مقدار 125/0 درصد، کمترین تأثیر منفی را بر انتشار دی اکسید کربن داشته است. بحث و نتیجه‌گیری: نتایج این مطالعه نشان دهنده تأثیر منفی رشد اقتصادی بر مقدار انتشار دی‌اکسید کربن در بلندمدت است که در هر دوره حدود 14 درصد از عدم تعادل های بی ثباتی میزان انتشار دی اکسید کربن برطرف می شود و حدود هفت دوره لازم است تا خطای تعادل کوتاه مدت تعدیل و مدل به تعادل بلندمدت بازگردد و همچنین وجود رابطه مثبت بین رشد زیربخش های اقتصادی کشور با انتشار دی اکسید کربن در کوتاه مدت و بلندمدت باعث افزایش این آلاینده خواهد شد.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Background and Objective: Different factors can cause increasing air contamination such as CO2. Understanding factors affecting atmosphere gaseous change is important for management and reducing air contaminants. Therefore the current study attempted to investigate the effect of growth amount of value added in different economic sector, economic growth, energy consumption, urbanization growth, opening trade grade and financial development on diffusion of carbon dioxide. Material and Methodology: The environmental pollution estimated using the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and error correction method (ECM) for Iran in the during 1985-2017. In addition, the long run relationship between model variables, short run dynamics of the model and the speed of adjustment of short run imbalances to long run estimated. Findings: The findings of the long-term model showed that the growth of urbanization with a value of 0.527% had the most positive effect and the degree of trade openness with a value of 0.125% had the least negative effect on carbon dioxide emissions. Discussion and conclusion: The results of this study show the negative effect of economic growth on the amount of carbon dioxide emissions in the long term, that in each period, about 14% of the imbalances of the instability of the amount of carbon dioxide emissions are resolved, and about seven The period is necessary for the short-term balance error to be adjusted and the model to return to the long-term balance, and also the presence of a positive relationship between the growth of the country's economic sub-sectors and the emission of carbon dioxide in the short-term and long-term will increase this pollutant.

منابع و مأخذ:


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_||_

  1. Sharzehi, GH.H., Haghani, M. Causality between Co2 Gas Emission and National income with Emphasis on Energy Consumption in IRAN. 2009, Economic Research, 44(2), 75-90. (In persian)
    2.
  2. Balali, H., Zamani-Dadandeh, O., Yousofi, A. 2013. The Relationship between Economic Growth and Environmental Pollution in Oil Sector with Emphasis on Oil Price Volatility: Case Study of Iran, Planning & Budgeting, 18 (3), 49-66 (In persian)
    3.
  3. Chontanawat, J., Hunt, L.C., Pierse, R. 2006. Causality between energy consumption and GDP: evidence from 30 OECD and 78 non OECD countries (No. 113). Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    4.
  4. Clevend, C. J., Costanza, R., Hall, C. A. S., Kaufmann, R. 1984. Energy and the US economy, A Biophysical perspective. Science New Series 225(4665), 890-897.
    5.
  5. Popp, D., Newell, R. G. 2009. Energy, the environment and technological change, Working papers. National Pureau of Economic Research Inc, 2(21), 873-937.
    6.
  6. Shahbazi, Sh., Asgharpur, H., moharramzadeh, K. 2011. Impact of Oil Different Products Consumption on Economic Growth in Iran Provinces. Quaterly Journal of Economic Modeling, 6(17), 25-44. (In persian)
    7.
  7. Razzaghi, M., Rezaie, R., Shabanali, H. 2012. Identifying the Inhibiting Factors of Application Development of Renewable Energies in Smallholder Farming Systems of the Tafresh Township. Iranian Journal Energy, 15(3), 1-18. (In persian)
    8.
  8. Energy balance. 2007. prepared and compiled by the Electricity and Energy Macro Planning Office. (In persian)
    9.
  9. Taheri, Gh., Hosseini-Nejad, S.M. 2012. Investigation of the environmental situation in energy consuming sectors. Journal of Statistics, 2(5), 16-20. (In persian)
    10.
  10. Foster, J.B. 1999. Marx’s theory of metabolic rift: classical foundation for environmental sociology. American Journal of Sociology, 105 (2), 366–405.
    11.
  11. York, R. 2007. Demographic Trends and Energy Consumption in European Union Nations (1960–2025). Social Science Research, 36 (3), 855–872.
    12.
  12. York, R., Rosa, E.A., Dietz, T. 2003. A rift in modernity? Assessing the anthropogenic sources of global climate change with the STIRPAT model. International Journal of Sociology and Social Policy, 23 (10), 31–51.
    13.
  13. Bayani, O., Farazmand, H. Investigating the impact of urbanization and energy consumption on environmental pollution in Iran. The first national conference on solutions to achieve sustainable development. General Directorate of Non-Active Defense (Ministry of the Interior), Natural Disaster Research Institute. (In persian)
    14.
  14. Makoto, Ch., Akimasa, F., Shinji, K., Phetkeo, P., Satoru, K., Andrey, K. 2015. The moderating effects of urbanization on carbon dioxide emissions: A latent class modeling approach, Technological Forecasting & Social Chang, 90, 302-317.
    15.
  15. Frankel, J., Romer, D. (1999) Does Trade cause Growth? The American economic review. 89 (3), 397-399.
    16.
  16. Tamazian, A., Chousa, J. P., Vadlamannati, K. C. 2009. Does higher economic and financial development lead to environmental degradation: evidence from BRIC countries. Energy Policy, 37 (1), 246-253.
    17.
  17. Sadorsky, P. 2010).The impact of financial development on energy consumption in emerging economies. Energy Policy, 38 (5), 2528-2535.
    18.
  18. Tamazian, A., Rao, B. B. (2010) Do economic, financial and institutional developments matter for environmental degradation? Evidence from transitional economies. Energy Economics, 32 (1), 137-145.
    19.
  19. Halicioglu, F. 2009. An econometric study of CO2 emissions, energy consumption, income and foreign trade in Turkey. Energy Policy, 37 (3), 1156-1164.
    20.
  20. Khan, M. K., Teng, J. Z., Khan, M. I. 2019. Effect of energy consumption and economic growth on carbon dioxide emissions in Pakistan with dynamic ARDL simulations approach. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 23(26), 23480-23490.
    21.
  21. Begum, R. A., Sohag, K., Syed Abdullah, SH. M., Jaafar, M. 2014. CO2 emissions, energy consumption, economic and population growth in Malaysia. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 41(8), 594–601.
    22.
  22. Jalil, A., Mahmud, S. F. 2009. Environment Kuznets curve for CO2 emissions: A cointegration analysis for China. Energy Policy, 12(37), 5167-5172.
    23.
  23. Pao, H. T., Yub, H. Ch., Yangb, Y. H. (2011) Modeling the CO2emissions, energy use and economic growth in Russia. Energy, 36(8), 5094–5100.
    24.
  24. Salmani, M. R., Shokri, M., Abedzadeh, K. 2017. Study Factors affecting emission of Gas co2 in Iran. Iranian Journal of Energy, 20 (1), 55-74. (In persian)
    25.
  25. Harati, J., Ebrahimi Salari, T., Amini, T. An Investigation of the Long-run and Short-run Impactsof Income Inequality on Quality of Environment in Iran (An Application of the Bayer Hanck Cointegration Approach), Environmental and Natural Resource Economics, 1(1), 111-138. (In persian)
    26.
  26. Sadegi, S. K., Ebrahimi, S. 2013. Impact of Coal Consumption on Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Iran. Iranian Energy Economics, 2(7), 43-73. (In persian)
    27.
  27. Pesaran, H. M., Shin, Y., Smith, R. J. 2001. Bounds Testing Approaches To The Analysis Of Level Relationships, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
    28.
  28. Rauf, R., Zhang, J., Li, J., Amin, W. 2018. Structural changes, energy consumption and carbon emissions in China: Empirical evidence from ARDL bound testing model. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 47,194-206.
    29.
  29. Abrishmi, H. 2009. Applied Econometrics: New Approaches. Tehran University Publications, p. 348. (In persian)
    30.
  30. Shahbaz Akmal, M. 2007. Stock Returns and Inflation: An ARDL Econometric Investigation Utilizing Pakistani Data. Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 45(1), 89-105.
    31.
  31. Narayan, P. K. 2004. Reformulating Critical Values for the Bounds F-statistics Approach to Cointegration: an Application to the Tourism Demand Model forFiji. Department of Economics Monash University, 2(4), 1-37.
    32.
  32. Razzaghi, M., Rezaie, R., Shabanali, H. 2012. Identifying the Inhibiting Factors of Application Development of Renewable Energies in Smallholder Farming Systems of the Tafresh Township. Iranian Journal of Energy,15(3), 1-18. (In persian)
    33.
  33. Azomahou, T., Laisney, F., Van, P. H. 2006. Economic development and CO2 emissions: A nonparametric panel approach. Journal of Public Economics, 90, 1347-1363.
    34.
  34. Jalil, A., Mahmud, S. F. 2009. Environment Kuznets curve for CO2 emissions: A cointegration analysis for China. Energy Policy, 12(37), 5167-5172.
    35.
  35. Torabi, T., Khajooeipour ,A., Tarighi, S., Pakravan, M. R. 2015 The Effect of Energy Consumption, Economic Growth and International Business on Greenhouse Gas Emission in Iran. Quarterly Journal of Economic Modelling. 9(29), 63-84. (In persian)
    36.
  36. Alam, S., Ambreeen, F., Muhammad, B. 2007. Sustainable Development in Pakistan in the Context of Energy Consumption Demand and Environmental Degradation. Journal of Asian Economics, 18, 825-837.
    37.
  37. Begum, R. A., Sohag, K., Mastura Syed Abdullah, S., Jaafar, M. 2015. CO2 Emissions, Energy Consumption, Economic and Population Growth in Malaysia. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 41, 594–601.
    38.
  38. Salmanpour, A. 2019. The Effect of population growth, human capital and petroleum products on environmental pollution in Iran. Environmental Science and Technology. 230(4), 239-255.
    39.
  39. Haddian, A. 2018. The effect of population growth on environment in Iran and other countries in the MENA region. The Macro and Strategic Policies, 6(21), 40-60.
    40.

 

 

 

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