تاثیر شهر نشینی بر مصرف انرژی های تجدید پذیر و تجدید ناپذیر در کشورهای در حال توسعه
محورهای موضوعی :
انرژی های تجدید پذیر
یزدان نقدی
1
,
سهیلا کاغذیان
2
,
مریم لشکری زاده
3
1 - استادیارگروه اقتصاد، واحد تهران غرب، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران. *(مسوول مکاتبات)
2 - استادیارگروه اقتصاد، واحد تهران غرب، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.
3 - استادیارگروه اقتصاد، واحد تهران غرب، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.
تاریخ دریافت : 1399/06/25
تاریخ پذیرش : 1400/04/23
تاریخ انتشار : 1400/11/01
کلید واژه:
شهر نشینی,
مصرف,
رهیافت گشتاورهای تعمیم یافته,
انرژیهای تجدیدپذیر و تجدیدناپذیر,
چکیده مقاله :
زمینه و هدف : با توجه به گسترش سریع جامعه شهری و افزایش مصرف انواع انرژی در کشورهای در حال توسعه، بررسی ارتباط میان شهرنشینی و مصرف انرژی ضروری است. هدف تحقیق حاضر بررسی رابطه شهرنشینی و مصرف انرژی های تجدیدپذیر و تجدیدناپذیر در کشورهای منتخب در حال توسعه است.
روش بررسی: در این تحقیق با استفاده از روش گشتاورهای تعمیم یافته (GMM) و با استفاده از دو مدل به بررسی تأثیر نرخ شهرنشینی بر مصرف انرژی های تجدیدپذیر و تجدیدناپذیر پرداخته شده است. این مطالعه برای 44 کشور و برای دوره 2018-1996 انجام شده است . برآورد مدلها به کمک نرم افزار stata صورت گرفته است. مدل تحقیق حاضر برگرفته از مدل خطی سلیم است. همچنین این مطالعه در سال 1398 انجام شده است.
یافته ها: بر اساس نتایج این تحقیق هر 10 درصد افزایش در نرخ شهر نشینی موجب افزایش یک درصدی در مصرف انرژی های تجدیدپذیر در کشورهای در حال توسعه می شود. هر10 درصد افزایش در نرخ شهر نشینی موجب افزایش2/4 درصدی در مصرف انرژی های تجدیدناپذیر در این کشورها می شود. بنابراین در کشورهای در حال توسعه تأثیر نرخ شهرنشینی بر مصرف انرژی های تجدیدناپذیر بیشتر از انرژی های تجدیدپذیر است.
بحث و نتیجه گیری: دلیل مصرف بیشتر انرژی تجدیدناپذیر در کشورهای در حال توسعه، وابستگی بیشتر وسایل گرمایشی و وسایل حمل و نقل عمومی و خصوصی این کشورها به انرژی های تجدید ناپذیر است که باید به تدریج تغییر یابد. این امر نیز نشانگر پایین بودن آگاهی و دانش جمعیت در مورد الگوهای مصرفی و همچنین پایین بودن سطح تکنولوژی در این دسته از کشورها است.
چکیده انگلیسی:
Background and Objective: Given the rapid expansion of urban society and increasing energy consumption in developing countries, it is necessary to examine the relationship between urbanization and energy consumption. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between urbanization and the consumption of renewable and non-renewable energy in selected developing countries.
Material and Methodology: In this research, the effect of urbanization rate on renewable and non-renewable energy consumption will be investigated using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) method and using two models. This study was conducted for 44 countries for the period 1996-2018. Estimation of the models has been done with Stata software. The research model was adopted from the linear Salim model.
Finding: According to the results of this study, every 10% increase in urbanization rate leads to a 1% increase in renewable energy consumption in developing countries. While every 10 percent increase in urbanization rates will increase the consumption of non-renewable energy in these countries by 4.2 percent. Therefore, in developing countries, the impact of urbanization rates on non-renewable energy consumption is greater than renewable energy.
Discussion and Conclusion: The reason for more renewable energy consumption in developing countries is the greater dependence of heating and public and private transportation in developing countries on non-renewable energy, which must be changed gradually. This also indicates the low awareness and knowledge of the population about consumption patterns and also the low level of technology in these countries.
منابع و مأخذ:
Islam, F; Shahbaz, M, Alam, M; 2013. Financial development and energy consumption nexus in Malaysia: A multivariate time series analysis. MPRA Paper. No.28403, pp.1-29.
Jones, DW; 2004. Urbanization and Energy. RCF economic and financial consulting, Inc. Chicago, United States.
Lui, Y; 2009. Exploring the relationship between urbanization and energy consumption in China using ARDL and FDM (Factor Decomposition Model). Energy Policy. Vol.34, pp.1846-1854.
Chang, T-H; Huang, C-M; Lee, M-C; 2009. Threshold Effect of the Economic Growth Rate on the Renewable Energy Development from a Change in Energy Price: Evidence from OECD Countries. Energy Policy. Vol.37. pp. 5796–5802.
Sadorsky, P; 2009. Renewable Energy Consumption and Income in Emerging Economies. Energy Policy.Vol.37. pp. 4021–4028.
Apergis, N; Payne, J. E; 2010. Renewable Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence from a panel of OECD countries. Energy Policy. Vol. 38(1). pp. 656-660.
Menegaki, A; Growth and Renewable Energy in Europe: A Random Effect Model with Evidence for Neutrality Hypothesis. Energy Economics.Vol.33. pp. 257–263.
Apergis, N; Payne, J. E; 2010. Renewable Energy Consumption and Growth in Eurasia. Energy Economics. Vol. 32.pp. 1392-97.
Apergis, N; Payne, J.E; 2011. The Renewable Energy Consumption Growth Nexus in Central America. Applied Energy. Vol. 88. PP. 343-347.
Apergis, N; Payne, J.E; 2011. The Renewable Energy Consumption Growth Nexus in Central America. Applied Energy. Vol. 88. PP. 343-347.
Salim, R. A; 2014. Nonrenewable and renewable energy consumption and Co2 emissions in OECD countries: a comparative analysis. Energy policy. Vol. 66. pp.547-556.
Aneja, R; Banday, U. J; Hasnat, T; 2017. Renewable and Non-renewable Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Panel Error Correction Model. Jindal Journal of Business Research. Vol. 6.pp. 76-85.
13. Bakirtas, T; Akpolat, A; 2018. The relationship between energy consumption, urbanization, and economic growth in new emerging-market countries. Energy.Vol.147. pp.110-121.
Xia-dong, Z; Jing-hua, S; Shuai, Z; 2020. Measuring the impacts of urbanization on energy consumption and economic growth in China: A computable general equilibrium analysis, International Conference on Advances in Energy and Environmental Science (ICAEES 2015).
Fotros, M; Aghazadeh, A; 2011. Impact of economic growth of the consumption of renewable energy: a comparative study of selected OECD and NON – OECD (including IRAN) countries. journal of economic and research and policies. Vol. 19. pp.81 -98. (In Persian)
Poumanyvong, P; Kaneko, S; 2010. Does urbanisation lead to less energy use and lower CO2 Emissions? A cross-country analysis. Ecol Econ.Vol.70(2). pp. 434-444.
Duan, J; Yan, Y; Zheng, B; Zhao, J; 2008. Analysis of the relationship between urbanization and energy consumption in China. Int J Sustain Dev World Eco.Vol. 15(3). pp. 309-317.
Mohamah bagheri, A; 2010. Investigating short and long run relationships between GDP, Energy consumption and carbon oxide emission in Iran. Quarterly Energy Economic review. Vol.7. pp. 101-129.
Berndt, E. R; D.O. Wood ;1975. Technology, Prices and the Derived Demand for Energy. Re. Econ.statis. Vol.57. pp.259-68.
Berndt, R. S; Reggia, J. A; Mitchum, C. C; 1987. Empirically derived probabilities for grapheme-to-phoneme correspondences in English. Behavior Research Methods. Instruments, & Computers. Vol. 19.pp. 1-9.
Stern D.I; 2000. a Multivariate Cointegration Analysis of the Role of Energy in the US Macroeconomic. Energy Economics.Vol. 22.pp. 267-283.
Enders, W; 2005. Applied econometric time series. 4 th edition, translated by Mehdi Sadeghi. (In Persian)
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Islam, F; Shahbaz, M, Alam, M; 2013. Financial development and energy consumption nexus in Malaysia: A multivariate time series analysis. MPRA Paper. No.28403, pp.1-29.
Jones, DW; 2004. Urbanization and Energy. RCF economic and financial consulting, Inc. Chicago, United States.
Lui, Y; 2009. Exploring the relationship between urbanization and energy consumption in China using ARDL and FDM (Factor Decomposition Model). Energy Policy. Vol.34, pp.1846-1854.
Chang, T-H; Huang, C-M; Lee, M-C; 2009. Threshold Effect of the Economic Growth Rate on the Renewable Energy Development from a Change in Energy Price: Evidence from OECD Countries. Energy Policy. Vol.37. pp. 5796–5802.
Sadorsky, P; 2009. Renewable Energy Consumption and Income in Emerging Economies. Energy Policy.Vol.37. pp. 4021–4028.
Apergis, N; Payne, J. E; 2010. Renewable Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence from a panel of OECD countries. Energy Policy. Vol. 38(1). pp. 656-660.
Menegaki, A; Growth and Renewable Energy in Europe: A Random Effect Model with Evidence for Neutrality Hypothesis. Energy Economics.Vol.33. pp. 257–263.
Apergis, N; Payne, J. E; 2010. Renewable Energy Consumption and Growth in Eurasia. Energy Economics. Vol. 32.pp. 1392-97.
Apergis, N; Payne, J.E; 2011. The Renewable Energy Consumption Growth Nexus in Central America. Applied Energy. Vol. 88. PP. 343-347.
Apergis, N; Payne, J.E; 2011. The Renewable Energy Consumption Growth Nexus in Central America. Applied Energy. Vol. 88. PP. 343-347.
Salim, R. A; 2014. Nonrenewable and renewable energy consumption and Co2 emissions in OECD countries: a comparative analysis. Energy policy. Vol. 66. pp.547-556.
Aneja, R; Banday, U. J; Hasnat, T; 2017. Renewable and Non-renewable Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Panel Error Correction Model. Jindal Journal of Business Research. Vol. 6.pp. 76-85.
13. Bakirtas, T; Akpolat, A; 2018. The relationship between energy consumption, urbanization, and economic growth in new emerging-market countries. Energy.Vol.147. pp.110-121.
Xia-dong, Z; Jing-hua, S; Shuai, Z; 2020. Measuring the impacts of urbanization on energy consumption and economic growth in China: A computable general equilibrium analysis, International Conference on Advances in Energy and Environmental Science (ICAEES 2015).
Fotros, M; Aghazadeh, A; 2011. Impact of economic growth of the consumption of renewable energy: a comparative study of selected OECD and NON – OECD (including IRAN) countries. journal of economic and research and policies. Vol. 19. pp.81 -98. (In Persian)
Poumanyvong, P; Kaneko, S; 2010. Does urbanisation lead to less energy use and lower CO2 Emissions? A cross-country analysis. Ecol Econ.Vol.70(2). pp. 434-444.
Duan, J; Yan, Y; Zheng, B; Zhao, J; 2008. Analysis of the relationship between urbanization and energy consumption in China. Int J Sustain Dev World Eco.Vol. 15(3). pp. 309-317.
Mohamah bagheri, A; 2010. Investigating short and long run relationships between GDP, Energy consumption and carbon oxide emission in Iran. Quarterly Energy Economic review. Vol.7. pp. 101-129.
Berndt, E. R; D.O. Wood ;1975. Technology, Prices and the Derived Demand for Energy. Re. Econ.statis. Vol.57. pp.259-68.
Berndt, R. S; Reggia, J. A; Mitchum, C. C; 1987. Empirically derived probabilities for grapheme-to-phoneme correspondences in English. Behavior Research Methods. Instruments, & Computers. Vol. 19.pp. 1-9.
Stern D.I; 2000. a Multivariate Cointegration Analysis of the Role of Energy in the US Macroeconomic. Energy Economics.Vol. 22.pp. 267-283.
Enders, W; 2005. Applied econometric time series. 4 th edition, translated by Mehdi Sadeghi. (In Persian)
