مقایسه روش تاگوچی و رگرسیون چند متغیره در تعیین فاکتورهای موثر در شاخصهای کیفی آب (WQIs) (مطالعه موردی: خروجی سد تنظیمی کرج)
محورهای موضوعی : آب و محیط زیست
1 - استادیار مهندسی محیط زیست، گروه مهندسی عمران، دانشکده مهندسی عمران و حمل و نقل، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران. *(مسوول مکاتبات)
2 - - دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی و مدیریت منابع آب، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه صنعتی اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران.
کلید واژه: کاهش هزینه پایش, روش تاگوچی, شاخص کیفی آب, کاهش فاکتورهای موثر درWQIs.,
چکیده مقاله :
زمينه و هدف: انديسهای کيفيت آب، از جمله ابزار مورد استفاده در بررسي کيفيت منابع آبهاي سطحي هستند. محققین مختلفی تلاش کردهاند که این اندیسها را با فاکتورهای کمتری ارائه دهند تا با کاهش هزینه پایش، در کشورهای در حال توسعه و کمتر توسعه یافته، قابل استفاده باشند. تحقیق حاضر با هدف مقایسه نتایج دو روش تاگوچی و رگرسیون چند متغیره در کاهش فاکتورهای شاخص کیفی آبNSF-WQI (National Sanitation Foundation Water Quality Index) صورت گرفت.
روش بررسي: در این تحقیق از نتایج کیفی آب سد تنظیمی کرج به عنوان مطالعه موردی و نشان دادن قابلیت روش تاگوچی در قیاس با رگرسیونهای چند متغیره مختلف استفاده شده است. برای این منظور از انديس کيفي آب NSF-WQI با 9 فاکتور استفاده شد.
يافته ها: نتایج روش تاگوچی در سطح اطمینان 95 درصد و با فاکتور درصد تاثیر حداقل 5/1 درصد برای محدوده مورد مطالعه نشان داد که در فصول مختلف سال مورد بررسی، حداقل 3 (شامل اکسیژن محلول، کل فسفر و فکال کالیفرم) و حداکثر 4 فاکتور (شامل اکسیژن محلول، کل فسفر، فکال کالیفرم و کدورت) در تعیین اندیس کیفی NSF-WQI موثر بودهاند. این بررسی با رگرسیون خطی چند متغیره نیز همین نتیجه را در بر داشت. بررسی با درصد تاثیر 5 درصد نیز نشان داد که حداقل 2 و حداکثر 3 فاکتور در تعیین اندیس کیفی مورد نظر موثر بوده است و در این حالت، ضریب همبستگی مدلهای رگرسیونی بیشتر از 96/0 بوده است.
بحث و نتيجه گيري: علاوه بر کاربرد روشهای مرسوم رگرسیون چند متغیره در کاهش فاکتورهای WQIs، از روش تاگوچی نیز میتوان برای تعیین فاکتورهای موثر و نیز سهم هر فاکتور در نتیجه نهایی کیفیت آب بهره برد. در بررسی حاضر، ارقام 5/1 و 5 درصد به عنوان حداقل و حداکثر حدود تصمیمگیری برای درصد تاثیر به عنوان یکی از خروجیهای آماری روش تاگوچی پیشنهاد شد.
Background and Objective: Water quality indicators are among the tools which is used to evaluate the quality of surface water resources. Many researchers have tried to provide these indicators with fewer factors to reduce their monitoring costs for useing in underdeveloped countries. The purpose of this study was to compare the results of Taguchi method and multivariate regression in reducing the factors of NSF-WQI (National Sanitation Foundation Water Quality Index).
Material and Methodology: In this research, the water quality results of Karaj regulatory dam have been used as a case study to show the capability of Taguchi method in comparison with different linear multivariate regression. For this purpose, the NSF-WQI water quality index was used by 9 factors.
Findings: The results of Taguchi method at 95% confidence level and with a minimum percentage influence (PI) of 1.5% at case study area, showed that in the different seasons between 3 (Dissolved Oxygen, Total Phosphorus and Fecal Coliform) and 4 (Dissolved Oxygen, Total Phosphorus, Fecal Coliform and Tourbidity) factors were effective in determining the NSF-WQI. The same results were obtained with multivariate linear regression. The using of 5% for PI showed that at least 2 and maximum 3 factors were effective in the water quality index determinating. In this case, the regression correlation of models was more than 0.96.
Discussion and Conclusion: In addition to using multivariate regression to reduce the WQIs factors, Taguchi method can also be used to determine the effective WQI factors and the contribution of each to the final result of water quality. In this study, 1.5% and 5% PI were suggested as the minimum and maximum decision-making limits as one of the statistical outputs of the Taguchi method.
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