تحلیل روند و ناهمگنی متغیرهای هیدرواقلیمی در حوضه آبخیز تجن
محورهای موضوعی : محیط زیست حوزه های آبخیز رودخانه هاسجاد صادقی 1 , بهرام ثقفیان 2 , محسن نجارچی 3
1 - دکتری دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه آزاد واحد اراک، اراک، ایران.
2 - استاد دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات تهران، تهران، ایران. *(مسوول مکاتبات)
3 - دکتری دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه آزاد واحد اراک، اراک، ایران.
کلید واژه: حوضه آبخیز تجن, بررسی روند و همگنی, متغیرهای اقلیمی, رواناب, مدل ارزیابی آب و خاک (SWAT).,
چکیده مقاله :
زمینه و هدف: در ایران، به خاطر گرم شدن و تغییرات بارندگی شدید به همراه توسعه طی دهه‌های اخیر، می‌بایست برای فهم عوامل اقلیمی بر منابع آبی توجه بیشتری گردد. بنابراین هدف تحقیق، تحلیل روند و ناهمگنی متغیرهای اقلیمی و نیز تاثیر آن‌ها بر فرآیندهای هیدرولوژیکی می‌باشد. روش بررسی: ایستگاه‌های دارای داده‌های طولانی مدت برای تحلیل روند (آزمون های من‌کندال) و بررسی همگنی (آزمون پتیت) متغیرهای اقلیمی در دوره آماری 30 ساله (2014-1984) مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. اثرات متغیرهای اقلیمی بر رواناب حوضه با استفاده از ابزار ارزیابی آب و خاک (SWAT) برای دو دوره زمانی اقلیمی (1984-2001 و 2001-2014) مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. یافته‌ها: در بررسی همگنی در ایستگاه‌های مورد بررسی تنها در ایستگاه سلیمان‌تنگه، نقطه تحول در سال 1998 را نشان داد و در دیگر ایستگاه‌ها این مورد مشاهده نگردید. در بررسی دمای ایستگاه قراخیل نقطه تحول در سال 1997 مشخص گردید و روند نیز به صورت افزایشی و معنی‌دار بوده است. نتايج آماره‌هاي ارزيابي ضريب تبيين (دوره کالیبراسیون: 6/0R2= و دوره صحت‌سنجی: 79/0R2=) و نشساتکليف (دوره کالیبراسیون: 51/0NSE= و دوره صحت‌سنجی: 51/0NSE=) حاصل از واسنجي و اعتبارسنجي مدل SWAT مورد تأييد می‌باشد. بحث و نتیجه‌گیری: در کل تغییرات اقلیمی طی سه دهه گذشته سبب کاهش رواناب در حوضه آبخیز شده است که ممکن است تا حدودی به وسیله افزایش تبخیر و تعرق در نتیجه افزایش دما یا کاهش بارش در اکثر ماه‌ها باشد. پژوهش حاضر، لزوم توجه به بحث تغيير متغیرهای اقلیمی و پيامدهاي آن را در مديريت منابع آب حوضه تجن، متذكر مي‌گردد.
Background and Objective: In Iran, due to warming and severe precipitation variation along with development in recent decades, more attention should be paid to comprehend the role of climatic factors in water resources. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the trend and heterogeneity of the climatic variables as well as their impact on hydrological processes. Material and Methodology The stations with long-term data were analyzed for trend analysis (Mann-Kendall tests) and homogeneity (Pettitt test) of climatic variables in a 30-year statistical period (1984-2014). The impacts of climatic variables on the basin's runoff were investigated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for two climatic time periods (1984-2001 and 2001-2014). Findings: The homogeneity investigation in the stations demonstrated that only in Soleiman Tangeh Station, the year 1998 was determined as the turning point. This case was not observed in other stations. Regarding the investigation of temperature associated with Gharakhil station, the turning point was obtained in 1997 and the trend was increasing and meaningful. The results of the coefficient of determination and Nash-Sutcliffe achieved from the calibration and validation of the SWAT were quite satisfactory. Discussion and Conclusion: In general, climate change over the past three decades has led to decline in the runoff of the basin, which may be partly due to the increased evapotranspiration as a result of increased temperature or reduced precipitation in most months. The present study attempts to indicate the significance of climate change and its consequences in the water resource management of the Tajan basin.
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