افزایش کارایی سامانه هشدار سیلاب با استفاده از منحنی غیر قطعی بارش آستانه
محورهای موضوعی : مدیریت آب در مزرعه با هدف بهبود شاخص های مدیریتی آبیاری
احمد شرافتی
1
(
استادیار؛ دانشکده فنی و مهندسی؛ دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی؛ واحد علوم و تحقیقات؛ تهران؛ ایران
)
کلید واژه: سامانه هشدار سیل, سیلاب, عدم قطعیت, منحنی بارش آستانه, مدل HEC 1,
چکیده مقاله :
یکی از روش‌های مهم و موثر در جلوگیری یا کاهش خسارات جانی و مالی سیلاب استفاده از سامانه‌های هشدار سیلاب می‌باشد. در همه سامانه‌های هشدار سیلاب از آشکارساز جهت شناسایی وقایع سیلاب مانند شاخص‌های اقلیمی استفاده می شود. استفاده از منحنی بارش آستانه از روش‌های متداول در هشدار سیلاب می‌باشد. در این روش با مقایسه بارش‌های مشاهداتی یا پیش‌بینی شده با مقادیر آستانه حدی بارش، هشدار وقوع سیلاب اعلام می‌گردد. از ضعف‌های اساسی استفاده از منحنی‌های متداول بارش آستانه، قطعی در نظر گرفتن الگوی توزیع زمانی بارش و پارامترهای مدل بارش-رواناب نظیر نفوذ و جریانات پایه می‌باشند. در این تحقیق تلاش شده است با در نظر گرفتن عدم قطعیت‌های پارامترها و متغیرهای ورودی مدل بارش-رواناب در تهیه منحنی بارش آستانه، ضعف‌های منحنی‌های متداول بارش آستانه برطرف گردد. نتایج این تحقیق نشان داد که منحنی‌های بارش آستانه با در نظر گرفتن عدم قطعیت‌های مذکور در مقایسه با منحنی‌های متداول بارش آستانه دقت بسیار بالاتری دارند.
Flood warning systems are the important and effective approaches to prevention or mitigation life and property loss in any flood event. All flood warning systems use one or more flood event indicator such as climatological signals. Rainfall threshold curve is one the conventional flood events indicator in many flood warning systems. In this respect, observed or forecasted rainfall was compared with rainfall threshold to notify flood event. Application of some assumptions like constant rainfall patterns and rainfall-runoff model parameters such as loss and base flow is known as the main drawback of using conventional rainfall threshold curves. This study has considered uncertainties of rainfall-runoff model parameters and variables for extracting rainfall threshold curve, while solving shortcomings of the previous works. Results of this study demonstrated that extraction of the rainfall threshold curves by considering uncertainties of the mentioned variables and parameters represents a very higher accuracy respect to conventional rainfall threshold curves.
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