شناسایی راهکارهای مناسب جهت مدیریت مصرف آب های سطحی استان آذربایجان غربی در بخش کشاورزی با استفاده از مدل سازی پویایی سیستم

محورهای موضوعی : مدیریت منابع آب

شیدا یوسفی ¹ , سید مهدی میردامادی ² , سیدجمال فرج اله حسینی ³ , فرهاد لشگرآرا ⁴

1 - دانشجوی دکتری توسعه کشاورزی، گروه اقتصاد، ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.
2 - دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.
3 - دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.
4 - دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.

تاریخ دریافت : 1400/07/25 تاریخ پذیرش : 1400/12/03 تاریخ انتشار : 1401/04/01

کلید واژه: سناریوهای اقلیمی, سناریوهای اقتصادی- سیاست‌گذاری, استان آذربایجان غربی, مدیریت منابع آب,

چکیده مقاله :

زمینه و هدف: سهم بخش کشاورزی استان آذربایجان غربی در برداشت آب‌های سطحی 2/91 درصد است. بهره برداری بی رویه از منابع آب، خشکی و نابودی اراضی کشاورزی در مقابل وابستگی کار و معیشت 2/1 میلیون نفری جمعیت استان به بخش کشاورزی، همچنین اتخاذ برنامه های بلندمدت توسعه ای، بحران آب بخش کشاورزی را تشدید کرده است بنابراین توجه به مدیریت بر مصارف آب‌های سطحی نیز یک امر الزامی است. این پژوهش به بررسی تأثیر سناریوهای زراعی، اقتصادی، سیاست‌گذاری، اقلیمی، اجتماعی- فرهنگی و سناریوهای آموزشی جهت مدیریت بر مصارف و موجودی آب‌های سطحی پرداخته است.روش پژوهش: تحقیق حاضر از نوع پژوهش های کاربردی است که با استفاده از رویکرد سیستم دینامیک جهت دستیابی به مدیریت پایدار منابع آب در استان آذربایجان‌غربی انجام گرفته است. ابتدا داده‌های آماری سال های گذشته (1397-1370) با استفاده از نرم‌افزارهای Excel و SPSS وارد سیستم شد. سپس مدل سیستم دینامیکی در محیط نرم افزارVENSIM توسعه یافته است. برای اطمینان از کارایی مدل، آزمون صحت سنجی مدل انجام شده است پس از اطمینان از کارایی مدل در ارزیابی سیاست‌ها، سناریوهای رشد جمعیت با نرخ های باروری متفاوت، PS1 )با نرخ فرزندآوری 11/2 فرزند(، PS2 (با نرخ فرزندآوری 95/1 فرزند)، PS3 (با نرخ فرزندآوری 5/1 فرزند) و PS4 (با نرخ فرزندآوری 6/2 فرزند) و سناریوهای اقلیمی با احتمال کاهش 20٪ بارش سالانه، ادامه روند کنونی بارش و بهبود 20٪ بارندگی سالانه به مدل معرفی شد همچنین سناریوهای سرمایه گذاری جهت بهبود 5/0 درصد راندمان آبیاری سالانه و سناریوی زراعی از جمله الگوی کشت کم مصرف به مدل معرفی شدند همچنین اثرات سناریوهای مشارکتی و آموزشی تا افق 1430 شبیه سازی شده است.نتایج: یافته‌های نشان داده شده در آزمون صحت سنجی همبستگی زیادی بین مقادیر شبیه سازی شده و مقادیر مشاهده شده آب‌های سطحی وجود دارد یعنی مدل در ارزیابی سیاست‌ها کارایی دارد. با ادامه روند کنونی بارندگی موجودی آب‌های سطحی 76/3 درصد طی دوره شبیه سازی (1397-1430) کاهش می یابد در صورتی که خشکسالی ها با کاهش 20٪ بارندگی سالانه تشدید شود، به دلیل تأثیر مستقیم بارش ها بر روانآب‌های سطحی، موجودی آب‌های سطحی، 54/20 درصد کاهش می یابد. بیشترین کاهش در مقادیر آب‌های سطحی مربوط به سناریوی کاهش بارندگی (20٪-) توأم با سناریوی افزایش نرخ باروری (ps4) است که سبب شده موجودی آب‌های سطحی 15/46 درصد کاهش یابد. افزایش جمعیت، کل آب مصرفی و حتی تقاضای آب کشاورزی را تا 27 درصد در افق 1430 افزایش داده است. با به‌کارگیری هم‌زمان سناریوهای الگوی کشت کم مصرف، سرمایه گذاری جهت بهبود راندمان آبیاری، فعالیت‌های مشارکتی و برنامه های آموزشی جهت بهبود مدیریت آب، مصارف آب 20/29 درصد و تقاضای آب کشاورزی از آب‌های سطحی نیز 37/31 درصد کاهش یافته است در این شرایط موجودی آب‌های سطحی نیز 12/9 درصد تا افق 1430 بهبود خواهد یافت.نتایج: نتایج نشان داد لازم است بازنگری هایی در سناریوهای جمعیتی در سطح ملی صورت گیرد همچنین، سناریوی زراعی رعایت الگوی کشت کم مصرف با کاهش نیاز آبی در هکتار بهترین سناریو شناخته شده است و به‌کارگیری آن موجودی آب سطحی را 45/2 برابر افزایش داده است.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Background and Aim: The share of agricultural sector in West Azerbaijan province, Iran from surface water abstraction is 91.2%. Excessive consumption of water resources, drought and destruction of agricultural lands, dependence of work and livelihood of 1.2 million population of province on the agricultural sector, the adoption of long-term development plans, have intensified the water crisis in agricultural sector. Therefore, managing the consumption of surface water is essential. This study investigates the effect of agricultural, economic, policy-making, climatic, socio-cultural and educational scenarios on management of surface water consumption and availability.Method: The present study is an applied research has been carried out using the dynamic system approach in order to achieve sustainable management of water resources in West Azerbaijan province. First, the statistical data from the previous years (1991-2018) are entered into the system using Excel and SPSS software. Then, the dynamic system model is developed in VENSIM software. To ensure the efficiency of the model in evaluating policies, the model validation test is performed. After making sure that the model works efficiency, population growth scenarios with different fertility rates, PS1 (2.11 children), PS2 (1.95 children), PS3 (1.5 children) and PS4 (2.6 Children) and climatic scenarios with a probability of 20% annual rainfall reduction, continuation of the current rainfall trend and 20% annual rainfall improvement are introduced to the model. Additionally, investment scenarios with the aim of 0.5% improvement in the annual irrigation efficiency and the crop scenario such as low-consumption cultivation pattern are introduced to the model. Moreover, the impacts of participatory and education scenarios, are simulated up to the horizon of 2051.Results: The results showed that in the validation test there is a high correlation between the simulated values ​​and the observed values ​​of surface water, and the model is effective in evaluating policies. Upon continuation of the rainfall current trend, available surface water decreases by 3.76% during the simulation period (2018-2051). Droughts intensify with a decrease of 20% of annual rainfall due to the direct effect of rainfall on runoff, available surface water is reduced by 20.54%. The largest decrease in the surface water content is related to the scenario of reduced rainfall (-20%) together with the scenario of increasing fertility rate (ps4), which cause a decrease in the available surface water by 46.15%. Population growth has increased the total water consumption and even agricultural water demand by 27% over the 2051 horizon. Simultaneously using low-consumption cultivation pattern scenarios, investment to improve irrigation efficiency, participatory activities and training programs to improve water management, water consumption decrease by 29.20% and agricultural water demand from the surface water decrease by 31.37% under these conditions, the available surface water improves by 9.12% to the horizon of 2051.Conclusion: The results showed that, it is necessary to review population scenarios at the national level. Also, the agricultural scenario of observing the pattern of low-consumption cultivation with reducing water demand per hectare is known as the best scenario and its application has increased the available surface water by 2.45 times.Keywords: Water resource management, Economic/policy-making scenarios, Climatic scenarios, West Azerbaijan provinceBackground and Aim: The share of agricultural sector in West Azerbaijan province, Iran from surface water abstraction is 91.2%. Excessive consumption of water resources, drought and destruction of agricultural lands, dependence of work and livelihood of 1.2 million population of province on the agricultural sector, the adoption of long-term development plans, have intensified the water crisis in agricultural sector. Therefore, managing the consumption of surface water is essential. This study investigates the effect of agricultural, economic, policy-making, climatic, socio-cultural and educational scenarios on management of surface water consumption and availability.Method: The present study is an applied research has been carried out using the dynamic system approach in order to achieve sustainable management of water resources in West Azerbaijan province. First, the statistical data from the previous years (1991-2018) are entered into the system using Excel and SPSS software. Then, the dynamic system model is developed in VENSIM software. To ensure the efficiency of the model in evaluating policies, the model validation test is performed. After making sure that the model works efficiency, population growth scenarios with different fertility rates, PS1 (2.11 children), PS2 (1.95 children), PS3 (1.5 children) and PS4 (2.6 Children) and climatic scenarios with a probability of 20% annual rainfall reduction, continuation of the current rainfall trend and 20% annual rainfall improvement are introduced to the model. Additionally, investment scenarios with the aim of 0.5% improvement in the annual irrigation efficiency and the crop scenario such as low-consumption cultivation pattern are introduced to the model. Moreover, the impacts of participatory and education scenarios, are simulated up to the horizon of 2051.Results: The results showed that in the validation test there is a high correlation between the simulated values ​​and the observed values ​​of surface water, and the model is effective in evaluating policies. Upon continuation of the rainfall current trend, available surface water decreases by 3.76% during the simulation period (2018-2051). Droughts intensify with a decrease of 20% of annual rainfall due to the direct effect of rainfall on runoff, available surface water is reduced by 20.54%. The largest decrease in the surface water content is related to the scenario of reduced rainfall (-20%) together with the scenario of increasing fertility rate (ps4), which cause a decrease in the available surface water by 46.15%. Population growth has increased the total water consumption and even agricultural water demand by 27% over the 2051 horizon. Simultaneously using low-consumption cultivation pattern scenarios, investment to improve irrigation efficiency, participatory activities and training programs to improve water management, water consumption decrease by 29.20% and agricultural water demand from the surface water decrease by 31.37% under these conditions, the available surface water improves by 9.12% to the horizon of 2051.Conclusion: The results showed that, it is necessary to review population scenarios at the national level. Also, the agricultural scenario of observing the pattern of low-consumption cultivation with reducing water demand per hectare is known as the best scenario and its application has increased the available surface water by 2.45 times.

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