مدلسازی و تحلیل تأثیر هزینه‌های سرطان بر رشد اقتصادی ایران
محورهای موضوعی : -مدارک پزشکی
سمیرا قنبری
1
(کارشناس‌ارشد اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی و اقتصادی، دانشگاه الزهرا، تهران، ایران،)
حسین راغفر
2
(دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی و اقتصادی، دانشگاه الزهرا، تهران، ایران)
کلید واژه: بیماری‌های مزمن, هزینه‌های سرطان, درآمد ملی, رشد اقتصادی,
چکیده مقاله :
مقدمه: وقتی سخن از تأثیر بیماری‌های مزمن بر اقتصاد جهانی و ملی می‌شود، هزینه‌های مستقیم، شامل کلیه هزینه‌های مربوط به تشخیص و درمان بیماری و هزینه‌های غیرمستقیم شامل از دست رفتن بهره‌وری و کارایی در اثر بیماری، باید مورد توجه قرار گیرند. هدف این مطالعه، تجزیه و تحلیل تأثیر هزینه‌ای بیماری غیر‌واگیر سرطان، در سطح ملی، بر روی رشد تولید و درآمد ملی است. روش پژوهش: در این پژوهش کاربردی، هزینه‌های 22 نوع سرطان برای 18 گروه سنی با فواصل 5 ساله، در زنان و مردان، مورد محاسبه قرار گرفته‌اند. سپس، معادله مربوط به تأثیر منفی هزینه‌های بهداشتی و درمانی سرطان بر درآمد ملی کشور، با روش کمترین مربعات معمولی، برآورد شده است. در ادامه، روند رشد هزینه‌های انواع مختلف سرطان‌ها و تولید ناخالص داخلی، از سال 1383 تا 1415، با استفاده از مدل ARIMA و در نرم‌افزار Eviews7 پیش‌بینی شده است. هم‌چنین داده‌ها به صورت فصلی مورد استفاده گرفته اند. یافته‌ها: نتایج نشان می‌دهند هزینه‌های درمانی اکثر سرطان‌های بررسی شده در این مطالعه، روند رو به رشدی را در طول 20 سال آینده تجربه خواهند کرد هم‌چنین رابطه مخارج سرطان با تولید ناخالص داخلی در ایران، نشان می‌دهد که طی سال‌های 1383 تا 1415، به طور متوسط 7/2 درصد تولید تولید ناخالص ملی در اثر بروز انواع مختلف سرطان از دست خواهد رفت. نتیجه‌گیری: ابتلا به بیماری‌های غیر‌واگیر و افزایش سهم هزینه‌های سرطان در بودجه فرد بیمار و کاهش قدرت خرید وی، مانع مشارکت وی در فعالیت‌های سودده اقتصادی شده، درآمد ملی و تولید ناخالص داخلی یک کشور و درنتیجه رشد اقتصادی آن را کند خواهد کرد.
Introduction: The epidemiological burden of chronic diseases and their risk factors is increasing worldwide, especially in developing countries.When it comes to the impact of diseases on economic, direct cost include all costs related to the diagnosis and treatment of diseases and indirect costs include loss of productivity and efficiency of the patient, should be taken into consideration. The main purpose of this paper is to explore and demonstrate the cost effect of chronic non-communicable disease, cancer, at the national level. Methods: In this study, we calculate the cost of 22 types of cancer for 18 age group with 5 years interval, for both males and females. Then, the equation that shows the negative impact costs related to cancer treatment on national income, is estimated due to ordinary least squares method. In the next stage, trend of growth for cost of cancers and GDP is computed by ARIMA model during 2004 to 2036. Results: The results show that the cost of cancer treatment examined in this study, will experience a growing trend over the next 20 years.The general trend for Iran, shows that during 2004 to 2036, 2/7 percentage of GDP is lost by cost of different types of cancer. Conclusion: Catching non-communicable diseases, increasing the share of cancer costs in patient’s budget and reducing in his purchasing power prevent his participation in profitable economic activities. Income and GDP of a Country decrease and consequently slow economic growth.
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18- Bollinger L, Stover J, Palamuleni M.E. The Economic Impact of AIDS in Malawi. Futures Group International, POLICY Project 2000; (USAID Contract No. CCP-C-00-95-00023-04)
19- Knowles S, Owen D. Health Capital and Cross-Country Variation in Income Per capitain the Mankiw-Romer-Weil Model. Economics Letters, 1995; 48: 99-106.
20- Lotfalipour M, Falahi M.A, Borji M. The Effects of Health Indices on Economic Growth in Iran. Journal of Health Administration, 2011; 14(46): 57-71. [Persian]
21. Economic Time Series Database. Central Bank of Islamic Republic of Iran. Available from: http://www.tsd.cbi.ir/
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1- Abegunde D, Stanciole A. An Estimation of the Economic Impact of Chronic Noncommunicable Diseases in Selected Countries. World health organization, Department of chronic diseases and health promotion (CHP); 2006.
2- Lopez-Casasnovas G, Rivera B, Currais L. Health and Economic Growth: Findings and Policy Implications. USA: Cambridge MA, The MIT press; 2007.
3- Bahrami M.A, Vatankhah S, Tabibi J, Tourani S. Designing a Health System Performance Assessment Model for Iran. Journal of Health Informatin Management 2011; 8(3): 285-305. [Persian]
4- Karimi S, Javadi M, Jafarzadeh F. Economic Burden and Costs of Chronic Diseases in Iran and the World. Journal of health information Management, 2011; 8(7): 984-996. [Persian]
5- Murray C, Knaul F, Musgrove P, Xu K, Kawabata, K. Defining and Measuring Fairness in Financial Contribution to the Health System. World Health Organization, Geneva; 2000.
6- National Report of Cancer Registration for years 2004-2008. The Cancer Registry Database. Available at: http://www.ircancer.ir/.
7- National Cancer Institute. Cancer Facts & Figures. Atlanta: American Cancer Society. [Cited 2014 Febuary 13]. Available at: http://statecancerprofiles. cancer.gov/cgi-bin/deathrates.
8- Cancer Research UK. Cancer Incidence and Mortality in the UK 2011. [Cited 2013 October 30]. Available at: http://www.cancerresearchuk.org /cancer-info/cancerstats/mortality.
9- Tabnak Professional News Site. 35 thousand Iranians die because of cancer in One Year. [Cited 2014 January 18]. Available at: http://www.tabnak.ir/fa/news/372216.
10- Ala Cancer Prevention & Control Center. Tangible Costs are only 35% of Total Cost of Cancer. [Cited 2014 Febuary 13]. Available from: http://www.alacpc.ir/tag/.
11- Gillis M, DwighT H. kins P, Roemer M, Donald R, grass S. Economics of Development. Pakistan Institute of Development Economics; 1988, Spring.
12- Gylfason,T. Export, Inflation and Growth. IMF Working Paper; 1997, 119.
13- Gaskari.R, Mistri.M. Estimation of Irans Economic Growth Model by Using Feder Model. Journal of Applied Economics, 2010; 1(3): 119-136. [Persian]
14- Gujarati D. N. Basic Econometrics Fourth Edition. The McGraw-Hill companies; 2004.
15- Boot J.C.G, Feibes W, Lisman J.H.C. Further Methods of Derivation of Quarterly Figures from Annual Data. Applied Statistics, 1967; 16(1): 65-75.
16- Emami K. An optimal Method for Constructing Quarterly Data from Annul. Journal of Economics and management, 2005; 16(64): 37-53. [Persian]
17- Acemoglu D. The Solow Growth Model. Introduction to Modern Economic Growth. Princeton: Princeton University Press; 2009: 26–76.
18- Bollinger L, Stover J, Palamuleni M.E. The Economic Impact of AIDS in Malawi. Futures Group International, POLICY Project 2000; (USAID Contract No. CCP-C-00-95-00023-04)
19- Knowles S, Owen D. Health Capital and Cross-Country Variation in Income Per capitain the Mankiw-Romer-Weil Model. Economics Letters, 1995; 48: 99-106.
20- Lotfalipour M, Falahi M.A, Borji M. The Effects of Health Indices on Economic Growth in Iran. Journal of Health Administration, 2011; 14(46): 57-71. [Persian]
21. Economic Time Series Database. Central Bank of Islamic Republic of Iran. Available from: http://www.tsd.cbi.ir/
22- Amini A, Haji Mohmmad N. The time series Estimation of Capital Stock in Iran. Journal of Plan and Budget, 2005; (90): 53-86. [Persian]
23- National Portal of Statistics. Statistical Center of Iran. Available from: http://www.amar.org.ir/
