آینده نگاری توسعه و تعالی ورزش تربیتی عراق
محورهای موضوعی : رفتار سازمانی در ورزش
انور فاضل محمد المسعودی
1
,
سید احسان امیرحسینی
2
,
محمد جابر حسین الزبیدی
3
,
رسول نظری
4
1 - دانشجوی دکتری مدیریت ورزشی، دانشکده علوم ورزشی، واحد اصفهان (خوراسگان)، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اصفهان، ایران.
2 - گروه علوم ورزشی، واحد یاسوج، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، یاسوج، ایران
3 - استادیار مدیریت ورزشی، گروه تربیت بدنی، دانشگاه کربلاء، عراق
4 - گروه مدیریت ورزشی، واحد اصفهان(خوراسگان)، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اصفهان، ایران.
کلید واژه: آينده نگاري, سناریونگاری, راهبردی, ورزش تربیتی,
چکیده مقاله :
پژوهش حاضر با هدف آیندهنگاری در ورزش تربیتی عراق به کشف آیندههاي پیشروي ورزش تربیتی و تدوین سناریوهاي آن برای 15 سال آینده و ارائه استراتژی پرداخته است. آیندهنگاری با رویکرد سناریونگاری بر اساس روش منطق شهودي به کار گرفته شده است و برای طراحی سناریوها از روش تحلیل روندها و عدم قطعیتها و الگوی شش مرحلهای سناریونگاری تلفیقی استفاده گردید. ابتدا، محدودۀ پروژه مشخص، سپس عوامل اصلی توسعه و نقاط کور با یک بازخورد 360 درجه شناسایی گردید. پس از آن، دو عدم قطعیت کلیدی به عنوان پایه و اساس طراحی سناریوها تدوین شد. در گام بعد تعریف تفصیلی و کامل چهار سناریوهای ممکن صورت پذیرفت. در مرحلۀ پنجم یک استراتژی کلی بر اساس سناریوها ارائه گردید و گام آخر شامل پایش و کنترل استراتژیهاست. مشارکت کنندگان پژوهش حاضر شامل 44 نفر از ذینفعان داخلی و خارجی ورزش تربیتی عراق بودند که بر اساس نمونهگیری هدفمند انتخاب شدند. گردآوری دادهها با مصاحبه و پرسشنامههای باز صورت گرفت. بر اساس یافتهها، تحلیل 30 عامل اصلی بدست آمده در نهایت منجر به تولید دو عدم قطعیت کلیدی "شبکه سازی در بین بازیگران کلیدی" و "هم افزایی خانواده و اجتماع" شد که پایه و اساس چهار سناریوی اصلی ورزش تربیتی عراق گردیدند. در نتیجه پیشنهاد میگردد به منظور توسعۀ ورزش تربیتی عراق، شبکه سازی و هم افزایی نهادهای متولّی صورت پذیرد.
The present study aims at foresight in Iraqi educational sports by exploring prospective futures and formulating scenarios for the next 15 years, as well as providing strategies. Foresight was employed using a scenario-writing approach based on the intuitive logic method, and for designing the scenarios, the trend analysis and uncertainty method, along with the integrated six-step scenario-writing model, were utilized. First, the project scope was defined, and then the main development factors and blind spots were identified through 360-degree feedback. Subsequently, two key uncertainties were formulated as the foundation for designing the scenarios. In the next step, a detailed and complete definition of four possible scenarios was carried out. In the fifth stage, a general strategy was presented based on the scenarios, and the final step involves the monitoring and control of the strategies. The participants in this study included 44 internal and external stakeholders of Iraqi educational sports who were selected through purposive sampling. Data collection was performed via interviews and open-ended questionnaires. Based on the findings, the analysis of 30 main identified factors ultimately led to the generation of two key uncertainties: "Networking among key actors" and "Synergy between family and society," which became the foundation for the four main scenarios of Iraqi educational sports. Consequently, it is suggested that in order to develop Iraqi educational sports, networking and synergy among the governing institutions should be established.
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