گذار از هارتلند مقاومت به عرصه رقابت آناتولی-ایرانی در پرتو سقوط اسد
محورهای موضوعی : علوم سیاسی- روابط بین الملل
1 - عضوهیات علمی گروه علوم سیاسی دانشگاه ایت الله بروجردی
2 - پژوهشگر پست دکتری دانشگاه آیت الله بروجردی، ایران/ بروجرد
کلید واژه: سوریه, ایران, ترکیه, خاورمیانه, موازنه قوا,
چکیده مقاله :
در پی فروپاشی نظام سیاسی بشار اسد در هشتم دسامبر ۲۰۲۴ و ورود بدون مقاومت مؤثر نیروهای مخالف به دمشق، معادلات ژئوپلیتیکی خاورمیانه دستخوش تغییرات بنیادین شد. غلبه هیئت تحریر الشام بر تحولات میدانی، شکافهای راهبردی میان ایران و ترکیه را آشکار ساخت. این مقاله با تمرکز بر پیامدهای ژئوپلیتیکی این رخداد، به بررسی تأثیر آن بر موقعیت منطقهای ایران و ترکیه میپردازد. فرضیه پژوهش بر این اصل استوار است که سقوط دولت اسد موجب افزایش نفوذ ترکیه در سوریه و تقویت جایگاه منطقهای آن شده، در حالیکه ایران با کاهش عمق استراتژیک، افت نفوذ ژئوپلیتیکی و تضعیف محور مقاومت مواجه گردیده است. همچنین، این تحول به تشدید رقابت راهبردی میان تهران و آنکارا در حوزه نفوذ منطقهای انجامیده است. روش تحقیق مبتنی بر تحلیل منابع کتابخانهای و مقالات علمی بوده و با رویکرد تبیینی، تلاش شده است تا مواضع و رویکردهای دو کشور نسبت به بحران سوریه و پیامدهای آن در سطح منطقهای بهطور دقیق ارزیابی گردد. این مطالعه به درک بهتر از تحولات ژئوپلیتیکی اخیر و تأثیر آن بر توازن قدرت در خاورمیانه کمک میکند.
The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime on December 8, 2024, and the unchallenged entry of opposition forces into Damascus marked a turning point in Middle Eastern geopolitics. The rise of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham reshaped strategic equations and revealed deep rifts between Iran and Turkey. This study explores the geopolitical implications of Assad’s fall, focusing on its impact on the regional positioning of these two key actors. The central hypothesis suggests that Turkey has expanded its influence in Syria and enhanced its regional stature, while Iran has suffered a loss of strategic depth, weakened geopolitical leverage, and diminished its role within the Resistance Axis. These developments have also intensified strategic rivalry between Tehran and Ankara over regional dominance. The research employs an explanatory method, drawing on library sources and academic literature to analyze the evolving approaches of both countries toward the Syrian crisis. By examining the shifting dynamics, this article offers insights into the transformation of power balances in the Middle East and the redefinition of regional roles following Syria’s political upheaval.
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