تحلیل بازار جهانی تولید و صادرات پسته و ارزیابی تغییرات مزیت نسبی صادراتی پسته ایران
محورهای موضوعی : اقتصاد و بازاريابي
1 - استادیار گروه اقتصاد، واحد رفسنجان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، رفسنجان، ایران
کلید واژه: پسته, تولید, صادرات, ساختار بازار,
چکیده مقاله :
یکی از اولویتهای اقتصاد ایران بالابردن سهم صادرات غیر نفتی و جایگزینی آن با صادرات نفتی بوده است. صادرات محصولات کشاورزی نقش عمدهای در صادرات غیر نفتی دارد و در این میان پسته دارای اهمیت ویژهای میباشد. در پژوهش حاضر پس از بررسی و تحلیل وضعیت تولید و صادرات پسته در ایران و دیگر کشورها، مزیت نسبی صادراتی پسته طی دوره زمانی 2023- 2008 محاسبه و مورد تجزیه و تحلیل قرار گرفت. برای این منظور جهت یافتن قدرت بازاری ایران از دو شاخص نسبتهای تمرکز[1] و هرفیندال- هیرشمن[2] ( HHI) و جهت بررسی مزیت صادراتی پسته در بین دیگر محصولات کشاورزی، از شاخصهای مزیت نسبی آشکار شده[3] ( RCA) و مزیت نسبی آشکارشده متقارن[4] (RSCA) استفاده شد. نتایج حاصله نشان داد که سهم ایران از تولید و صادرات جهانی در طول دوره مورد بررسی روندی کاهشی داشته است. بطوریکه در چند سال اخیر جایگاه خود به عنوان بزرگترین صادرکننده پسته را از دست داده و جای خود را به کشور آمریکا داده است. در خصوص محاسبه شاخص مزیت نسبی نیز نتایج حاکی از وجود مزیت نسبی صادراتی برای کشورهای ایران، آمریکا و ترکیه می باشد. همچنین دیده شد که شاخص مزیت نسبی کشورهای آمریکا و ترکیه در سالیان اخیر با رشد زیادی روبرو بوده است.
[1] Concentration Ratios
[2] Herfindahl–Hirschman Index
[3] Revealed Comparative Advantage
[4] Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage
Introduction: One of the priorities of the Iranian economy has been to increase the share of non-oil exports and replace it with oil exports. Exports of agricultural products play a major role in non-oil exports, and pistachios are of particular importance.
Materials and Methods: In the present study, after examining and analyzing the status of pistachio production and exports in Iran and other countries, the comparative advantage of pistachio exports during the period 2008-2023 was calculated and analyzed. For this purpose, two indices of concentration ratios and Herfindahl-Hirschman (HHI) were used to find Iran's market power, and to examine the export advantage of pistachios among other agricultural products, the revealed comparative advantage (RCA) and revealed symmetrical comparative advantage (RSCA) indices were used.
Results and Discussions: The results showed that Iran's share of global production and exports has been declining during the period under review. In the last few years, it has lost its position as the largest pistachio exporter and has given its place to the United States. Regarding the calculation of the comparative advantage index, the results indicate the existence of comparative export advantages for Iran, the United States, and Turkey. It was also seen that the comparative advantage index of the United States and Turkey has grown significantly in recent years.
Conclusion: Despite the high comparative advantage that exists in Iran in terms of pistachio exports, the situation of pistachio production in Iran is not in a favorable trend, and it seems that if no solution is found to increase the area under cultivation or the production yield of this product, in the coming years Turkey, like the United States, will take Iran's place in the field of pistachio production and export.
Ahmadi, H., Baaghideh, M., & A. Dadashi-Roudbari, 2021, Climate change impacts on pistachio cultivation areas in Iran: a simulation analysis based on
CORDEX-MENA multi-model ensem bles. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 145(1). Aminizadeh, M. Rafiee, H. Riahi, A. and E. Mehrparvar Hosseini, 2014, Pattern of Competitiveness of Pistachios World Premier Exporters in Iran's
Importers Market, Agricultural Economics, 8 (2). (In Persian)
Azizi, J. and S. Yazdani, 2006. A Study of Iranian Pistachio Exports: Challenges and Approaches. Journal of Economic Research, 41 (3). (In Persian)
Balassa, B. 1965. Trade liberalization and revealed comparative advantage. Manchester School of Economic and Social Studies, 33: 92-123. Dalum, B., Laursen, K., Villimsen, G. 1998. Structural change in the OECD export specialization patterns: de-specialization and stickiness. International
Review of Applied Economics, 12:423-443. Elloumi, O., Ghrab, M., Kessentini, H., & M. Mimoun, 2013, Chilling accumulation effects on performance of pistachio trees cv. Mateur in dry and warm
area climate. Scientia Horticulturae, 159. Faraj zadeh, Z. and M. Bakhshoudeh, 2011. Studying Pistachio World Market Structure with Emphasis on Iranian Market Power, Journal of Agricultural
Economics and Development, 19 (1). (In Persian) Fathi, Y. 2002, Analysis of the comparative export advantage of different groups of Iranian food industries, Agricultural Economics and Development,
10(38). (In Persian) Ghorbanian, E. and A. Esmaili, 2017, Examining the competition between Iran and the United States within the framework of multilateral monopoly in
the global pistachio market, Agricultural Economics Research, 9 (2). (In Persian) Hashemi Nasab, H. Javan Shah, A. Panahi, B. Esmail Pour, A. and M. Ghasemi, 2021, Climate change, global warming and meeting the cooling needs of
pistachio trees: challenges and solutions. Pistachio Research Institute Journal. Hillman, A, 1980, Observations on The Relation between Revealed Comparative Advantage and Comparative Advantage as indicated by Pre-trade
Relative Price, Weltwirl Schaftliches Archive, 116. Hosseini, H., and H. Rafiee, 2008, Production and Export Comparative Advantage of Iran’s Pistachio, Journal of Agricultural Economics & Development,
22 (2). (In Persian) Karbasi, A. and M. Amini zadeh, 2017, Study of factors affecting Iranian pistachio exports with emphasis on the role of trade sanctions, Agricultural
Economics Research, 11 (3). (In Persian) Laursen, K. 1998. Revealed comparative advantage and the alternatives as measures of international specialization. Department of industrial
economics and strategy, Working Paper, pp. 30-98.
Liesner, H. H. 1958. The European Common Market and British Industry, Economic Journal, 68: 302-16.
Maddala, G. C.,Dobson, and E. Miller, 1995, Microeconomics, the regulation of monopoly, Mac Grawhill, Chapter 1, pp. 185-195. Mehrabi Boshr abadi, H. 2002. Study of factors affecting Iran's share of the global pistachio market, Journal of Agricultural Economics and
Development, 10. (In Persian) Mehrabi, H. and A. Neshat, 2010, Investigation of Effective Factors on Iran’s Comparative Advantage in Pistachio Export and Ranking of its Target
Markets, Journal of Trade Studies, 14(55). (In Persian)
Mohammadi, H. and F. Sakhi Hani, 2015, Factors affecting the supply of pistachio exports in Iran, Agricultural Economics Research, 7 (2). (In Persian) Mohammadi, H. and M. Bahrami Nasab, 2013, Assessment of Effective Factors on Supply and Demand of Iran’s Pistachios Export (Vector Auto
Regression Approach), Agricultural Economics, 7 (4). (In Persian) Pakravan, M., Mehrabi, H., Gilan pour, O. and F. Esmaili, 2011, Studying Iranian Pistachio Export Position:Comparative Advantage and Trading Map
Approach, Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, 19 (4). (In Persian) Salarpour, M., Mojarad, S. and M. Sabouhi, 2014, Production and Trade Situation in Iran and USA and Impact of Exchange rate Volatility on the Exports,
Journal of Agricultural Economics & Development, 28 (3). (In Persian) Sharzehi, G. and R. Ghanbari, 2000, Estimation of Pistachio Export Demand and Supply Functions Using a System of Simultaneous Equations.
Proceedings of the Third Iranian Agricultural Economics Conference.
Tirole, J. 2002, The theory of Industrial Organization, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Vollrath, T.L, 1991. A theoretical evaluation of alternative trade industry measures of revealed comparative advantage. Weltwirtshaftliches Archiv. 127:
265-280. Yeats, A. 1985, On the appropriate interpretation of the Revealed comparative advantage index; Implications of a methodology based on industry
sector analysis, Weltwirl schaftliches Archive, 121.
