بررسی تحلیلی تأثیر وجه نقد بر عملکرد شرکت‌ها تحت رکود و رونق اقتصادی

محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه اقتصاد محاسباتی

سید فخرالدین فخرحسینی ¹ , میثم کاویانی ² , محیا نجفی مصباح ³

1 - دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد تنکابن
2 - استادیار، گروه حسابداری و مدیریت، واحد کرج، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، کرج، ایران
3 - دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد مدیریت مالی، دانشکده بازار و کسب و کار، واحد کرج، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، کرج، ایران

تاریخ دریافت : 1404/05/05 تاریخ پذیرش : 1404/07/02 تاریخ انتشار : 1404/10/03

کلید واژه: وجه نقد, عملکرد, بازار سرمایه, چرخه‌ تجاری,

چکیده مقاله :

این پژوهش به تحلیل رابطه بین نقدینگی و کارآمدی شرکت‌ها در فازهای مختلف چرخه اقتصادی در بورس تهران می‌پردازد. تغییرات اقتصادی به عنوان متغیرهای تعیین‌کننده در شکل‌گیری الگوهای مالی شرکت‌ها مورد توجه قرار می‌گیرند. این تحقیق با بهره‌گیری از داده‌های مالی شرکت‌های بورسی طی دوره 1392-1402 مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. رویکرد تحقیق از نوع توصیفی-تحلیلی بوده و از مدل‌های آماری و داده‌های پانلی استفاده شده است. نتایج تحقیق بیانگر آن است که نقدینگی تأثیر معناداری بر عملکرد سازمانی دارد (به صورت خطی یا با روند غیرخطی U شکل) که در مراحل متفاوت دوره اقتصادی متفاوت است. همچنین یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهند که در فاز رکود، نقدینگی تأثیر مثبت و معناداری بر کارایی شرکت‌ها دارد، اما در دوره رشد اقتصادی این تأثیر معنادار نیست. به طور کلی، یافته‌ها حاکی از آن است که در فازهای رشد، فواید نگهداری نقد کاهش یافته و هزینه‌های فرصت آن افزایش می‌یابد. در مقابل، در فازهای رکود، حفظ نقدینگی تأثیر مثبت چشمگیری بر عملکرد شرکت‌ها داشته و منجر به افزایش توان مالی و کاهش وابستگی به تأمین مالی خارجی می‌شود. این مطالعه می‌تواند به مدیران، سرمایه‌گذاران و سیاست‌گذاران در تصمیم‌گیری‌های بهینه برای مدیریت منابع نقدی و ارتقای کارایی شرکت‌ها یاری رساند و در توسعه استراتژی‌های مالی مؤثر نقش ایفا کند.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Extended‏‏‏ Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the dynamic relationship between corporate cash holdings and firm performance, with a particular emphasis on the moderating role of the business cycle—specifically, contrasting recession and boom phases—within the context of the Tehran Stock Exchange. While cash management is a central component of corporate financial strategy, the nature of its impact on performance remains a subject of debate in the literature. Some studies suggest a positive linear relationship, where higher cash reserves enhance a firm’s ability to withstand shocks and seize investment opportunities. Others propose a nonlinear, inverted U-shaped relationship, implying that while moderate cash levels improve performance, excessive liquidity may lead to agency problems, inefficient capital allocation, and forgone investment returns. Given the unique macroeconomic environment of Iran—characterized by high inflation, sanctions, volatile exchange rates, and limited access to external financing—the optimal cash strategy may differ significantly from those observed in more stable economies. This study seeks to clarify whether cash acts as a strategic buffer during economic downturns and whether its marginal benefit diminishes or vanishes during periods of expansion. 

Methodology

The research adopts an applied and descriptive–analytical approach, utilizing panel data regression models to analyze a comprehensive dataset of firms listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange over the period 2013–2023. After applying screening criteria to ensure data consistency and reliability—such as excluding financial firms, firms with incomplete financial statements, and those delisted during the period—the final sample consists of 114 non-financial companies. Financial data, including balance sheets and income statements, were extracted from the Rahavard Novin software and validated against official records from the Securities and Exchange Organization of Iran to ensure accuracy. The dependent variable in the analysis is Return on Assets (ROA), a widely accepted measure of operational efficiency and profitability. The primary independent variable is cash holdings, defined as the ratio of cash and cash equivalents to total assets (CASH/TA), which allows for cross-firm comparability. To control for other determinants of performance, the model includes several firm-specific variables: debt ratio (to account for leverage), investment intensity (net fixed assets over total assets), firm size (natural logarithm of total assets), Altman’s Z-score (as a proxy for financial health), sales growth, market share, and slack resources (measuring unused capacity).

A key innovation of this study lies in its treatment of the business cycle as a moderating variable. To distinguish between recessionary and expansionary phases, the Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter was applied to real GDP data from the Central Bank of Iran. This method decomposes GDP into trend and cyclical components, enabling the identification of periods above (boom) and below (recession) the long-term growth trend. The cyclical component was then used to create interaction terms between cash holdings and the business cycle phase, allowing the estimation of differential effects across economic conditions. The empirical model was estimated using Generalized Least Squares (GLS) panel regression in EViews, which accounts for heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation, providing more efficient and robust estimates compared to ordinary least squares.

 Findings

The findings reveal a robust positive linear relationship between cash holdings and firm performance. Specifically, higher cash-to-assets ratios are associated with significantly higher ROA, supporting the view that liquidity enhances financial flexibility, reduces vulnerability to external shocks, and enables firms to maintain operations and invest in profitable opportunities even under uncertainty. This result is consistent with the precautionary motive for holding cash, especially in an environment like Iran, where credit markets are underdeveloped and firms face significant financing constraints. However, the study finds no statistically significant evidence of a nonlinear (inverted U-shaped) relationship between cash and performance. While some model specifications included quadratic terms, these were not significant, suggesting that, within the observed range, Iranian firms do not experience diminishing returns or performance deterioration due to excessive cash. This contrasts with findings in some international contexts (e.g., Martínez-Sola et al., 2018; Shemshad & Imeni, 2022), where agency costs and managerial inefficiencies associated with surplus cash lead to an optimal cash threshold.

More importantly, the results confirm a significant moderating effect of the business cycle. During recession periods, the positive impact of cash holdings on performance is amplified and remains statistically significant. This aligns with the financial resilience hypothesis and supports prior research (Knudsen et al., 2023; Aghaei et al., 2009; Mehrani & Hesarzadeh, 2009) indicating that cash serves as a critical buffer when external financing is scarce and demand is uncertain. In contrast, during economic booms, the coefficient on cash holdings becomes statistically insignificant, suggesting that firms derive little incremental benefit from holding large cash reserves. This can be attributed to the lower cost of external capital, abundant investment opportunities, and the rising opportunity cost of idle cash during growth phases. 

Conclusion

In conclusion, this study demonstrates that cash holdings have a consistently positive and linear effect on corporate performance in the Iranian market, particularly during recessions. The absence of a nonlinear relationship implies that, over the study period, Iranian firms have not reached a threshold where cash becomes detrimental. From a managerial standpoint, firms should prioritize liquidity accumulation during downturns to ensure survival and operational continuity, but during expansions, they should actively deploy excess cash into value-creating investments. For policymakers, enhancing financial market depth and access to credit during crises could reduce the need for excessive precautionary savings, while in booms, regulatory incentives could encourage capital recycling into productive sectors. Ultimately, cash management must be adaptive, strategically aligned with macroeconomic conditions to optimize both stability and growth.

منابع و مأخذ:

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